Although the next 2.5 weeks are arguably the most important 2.5 weeks left in the regular season (as they will inform Jed Hoyer’s decisions and aggressiveness at the deadline), there’s still a lot more baseball to be played after that. We all know the deal on the pitching side – the injuries are stacked, the impact is lacking, and the Cubs need all the help they can get.
But positionally, things have gone much better for the Cubs this year, and big changes at the Trade Deadline are highly unlikely.
Chicago has the top defense in the league and one of the stronger overall offenses, as well. To that end, I’d like to take a look at the projections for the nine core-ish position players, in something close to lineup order, to see if the models expect them to keep it up.
The players in question: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Alex Bregman, Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, Carson Kelly, Miguel Amaya, and Michael Conforto. Below, you’ll find charts including each player’s current stats to date, their projected rest-of-season performance, and the full-season combined/blended numbers. That way, we can discern how we’d feel about what might come next, but also how things will look by the end of the year.
Cool? Cool. Let’s do it.
Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF
It will be difficult for anyone to be upset with PCA’s rest-of-season projections, even if they come in a little bit softer than his first half overall (particularly the walk rate). I understand why a model might not fully appreciate the clear visual change in approach we can scout with our eyes, when the increase in walks has been SO dramatic. Likewise, hitting “only” 12 more homers from here on would be more than acceptable, but I don’t think that’s necessarily his ceiling. The pace at which he’s been crushing balls lately can certainly result in a better finish. No problem, though; models are conservative by nature, and if he does hit 12 more, he’ll become just the second Cub ever to have two 30-30 seasons, joining Sammy Sosa.
Bottom line, if PCA finishes with a 144 wRC+ and 8.6 WAR, we’re all going to be very, very happy Cubs fans.
Pete Crow-Armstrong 2026 · CF · Through July 15 Stat To Date Rest of Season Full Season Slash.291/.386/.531153 wRC+.267/.332/.484124 wRC+.284/.369/.516144 wRC+ Walk Rate11.2%7.2%10.0% Strikeout Rate25.8%24.9%25.5% Home Runs211233 Stolen Bases241438 RBI533992 WAR6.02.68.6 Rates blended from raw AB/H/BB/TB; counting stats summed. Full-season wRC+ is a PA-weighted estimate. Projections: ZiPS Depth Charts (rest of season). Source: FanGraphs.Alex Bregman, 3B
By contrast, I think we’re all right to hope for more out of Alex Bregman than the models project the rest of the way. As presently calculated, the rest of Bregman’s season would result in a league-average bat with just enough WAR (3.1) to not look like a total disaster, but count me among those hoping for something much better than this.
It’ll be tough to dig himself entirely out of the hole he’s dug, but I’d like to see Bregman finish with something closer to a 110 wRC+ with 20 HRs and ~4.0 WAR. That might be aggressive, but it should be doable. He did start looking a little more locked in, and sounded more confident, heading into the break. We’ll see.
Alex Bregman 2026 · 3B · Through July 15 Stat To Date Rest of Season Full Season Slash.241/.336/.35997 wRC+.242/.337/.394106 wRC+.243/.336/.374101 wRC+ Walk Rate11.4%11.3%11.4% Strikeout Rate15.3%14.7%15.0% Home Runs9817 Stolen Bases213 RBI413172 WAR1.71.33.0 Rates blended from raw AB/H/BB/TB; counting stats summed. Full-season wRC+ is a PA-weighted estimate. Projections: ZiPS Depth Charts (rest of season). Source: FanGraphs.Michael Busch, 1B
The good news, when it comes to Michael Busch, is that in the second half of the season, ZiPS does not see his strikeout rate exploding as his SLG and overall power return to him. There may be fewer walks, but I think that would generally be a worthy tradeoff (this guy should NOT be slugging under .400, that’s just ridiculous for how good he is).
Ten more homers also gets him over 20, with a healthy 83 RBI and 3.0 WAR. I expected a MUCH better season than this from him overall, but his value is unmistakable. There’s obviously so much more in that bat (we saw it at the end of last season), but a 122 wRC+(ish) might be a good-enough realistic target.
Michael Busch 2026 · 1B · Through July 15 Stat To Date Rest of Season Full Season Slash.239/.368/.395118 wRC+.249/.349/.449122 wRC+.243/.361/.416119 wRC+ Walk Rate14.9%11.7%13.7% Strikeout Rate22.2%23.7%22.8% Home Runs111021 Stolen Bases224 RBI493483 WAR1.81.23.0 Rates blended from raw AB/H/BB/TB; counting stats summed. Full-season wRC+ is a PA-weighted estimate. Projections: ZiPS Depth Charts (rest of season). Source: FanGraphs.Seiya Suzuki, RF/DH
Seiya Suzuki is a hard guy to project. As we’ve seen already this season (and throughout his big league career), he can go ice cold and scorching Venus hot for weeks at a time. I think the walk rates and strikeout rates all look fine, but I genuinely wouldn’t be surprised at all if he VASTLY outperforms a 126 wRC+ the rest of the way.
Or maybe he’ll do what he always does, as I mentioned, averaging out to a 126 wRC+ with a huge month and a cold month or whatever. Needless to say, he too has a lot of ground to make up relative to our expectations for him ocming into this season. A 124 wRC+ and 3.1 WAR is nice, but he can certainly be a 140 wRC+ and 4.0 WAR guy, no question in my mind.
Seiya Suzuki 2026 · RF/DH · Through July 15 Stat To Date Rest of Season Full Season Slash.268/.347/.464123 wRC+.263/.344/.475126 wRC+.266/.346/.469124 wRC+ Walk Rate10.2%10.6%10.4% Strikeout Rate25.7%25.3%25.5% Home Runs151126 Stolen Bases224 RBI483785 WAR1.91.23.1 Rates blended from raw AB/H/BB/TB; counting stats summed. Full-season wRC+ is a PA-weighted estimate. Projections: ZiPS Depth Charts (rest of season). Source: FanGraphs.Ian Happ, LF
ZiPS thinks Ian Happ’s strikeout rate is going to come down, while still producing power with 10 more homers the rest of the way. This projected finish to the season would be the worst overall offensive season for Ian Happ since 2021 (105 wRC+). But the WAR total would actually be higher than last year (2.9 vs 2.8).
Overall, it’s been a weird year for Happ, who never hits quite this many home runs, but also doesn’t strikeout this much usually either. I’m not sure that’s the best profile for him. I know I definitely prefer the guy who hits over .240 and gets on base closer to .340, albeit with less power, than the current version. That is, unless he’s going to hit like 15 more homers (not 10 more). Or whatever. Point being, I don’t think he has quite enough power to be a power-first guy. And the production versus lefties, as we know, has been brutal.
Also, boy, the Cubs sure love them some 3.0 WAR players, eh?
Ian Happ 2026 · LF · Through July 15 Stat To Date Rest of Season Full Season Slash.220/.327/.431110 wRC+.237/.337/.429113 wRC+.227/.331/.430111 wRC+ Walk Rate12.6%12.3%12.5% Strikeout Rate31.5%26.0%29.3% Home Runs171027 Stolen Bases437 RBI423274 WAR1.71.22.9 Rates blended from raw AB/H/BB/TB; counting stats summed. Full-season wRC+ is a PA-weighted estimate. Projections: ZiPS Depth Charts (rest of season). Source: FanGraphs.Nico Hoerner, 2B
The good news: ZiPS does not think Nico Hoerner is going to be NEARLY as bad in the second half as he was in the first half. The bad news: ZiPS still does not think he’ll produce above league-average offensively, which results in – by far – a career worst 85 wRC+ at the end of the year.
Hoerner’s lack of strikeouts, great baserunning, and elite defense keep him valuable, but there’s no doubt this has been an incredibly dissapointing season. And unfortunately, ZiPS does not see him making up all that ground in the second half.
Nico Hoerner 2026 · 2B · Through July 15 Stat To Date Rest of Season Full Season Slash.233/.305/.32679 wRC+.264/.332/.35295 wRC+.246/.316/.33685 wRC+ Walk Rate8.6%6.9%7.9% Strikeout Rate7.9%8.8%8.3% Home Runs448 Stolen Bases141125 RBI382765 WAR1.21.32.5 Rates blended from raw AB/H/BB/TB; counting stats summed. Full-season wRC+ is a PA-weighted estimate. Projections: ZiPS Depth Charts (rest of season). Source: FanGraphs.Dansby Swanson, SS
Do you wish he had a higher AVG and OBP? Yeah, of course. But if our Gold Glove shortstop, and ninth hitter in the lineup, is going to finish the year with 26 homers, 95 RBI, 19 stolen bases, and 4.0 WAR … well, it’s actually kind of hard to complain about that.
Now, the tricky part here is that Swanson has been CRAZY locked in over his last 74 PAs (166 wRC+). If something actually clicked for him … not so sure that makes sense, but the All-Star break is time for hope … then maybe you can hope he outperforms down the stretch. Either way, even a slightly below average finish for him offensively, as projected, is a very good outcome, all things considered.
Dansby Swanson 2026 · SS · Through July 15 Stat To Date Rest of Season Full Season Slash.211/.293/.41295 wRC+.233/.304/.40396 wRC+.222/.298/.40895 wRC+ Walk Rate10.4%9.0%9.8% Strikeout Rate23.6%24.9%24.2% Home Runs161026 Stolen Bases12719 RBI583795 WAR2.41.64.0 Rates blended from raw AB/H/BB/TB; counting stats summed. Full-season wRC+ is a PA-weighted estimate. Projections: ZiPS Depth Charts (rest of season). Source: FanGraphs.Carson Kelly, C
Fewer walks, more strikeouts, but roughly the same amoung of power and a 112 wRC+ finish from a good receiving, good game-calling, elite ABS challenging catcher? Again, very very easy to take that and be happy. Carson Kelly has been an excellent catcher for the Cubs, in all facets of the game/on both sides of the ball, and this projected finish is more than enough.
Carson Kelly 2026 · C · Through July 15 Stat To Date Rest of Season Full Season Slash.273/.363/.400117 wRC+.248/.331/.391104 wRC+.263/.351/.397112 wRC+ Walk Rate11.2%9.9%10.7% Strikeout Rate16.7%19.2%17.7% Home Runs6410 Stolen Bases011 RBI321951 WAR1.20.92.1 Rates blended from raw AB/H/BB/TB; counting stats summed. Full-season wRC+ is a PA-weighted estimate. Projections: ZiPS Depth Charts (rest of season). Source: FanGraphs.Miguel Amaya, C
Listen, do I think MIguel Amaya has WAY more power potential than he’s shown in game? Absolutely. But if the backup catcher finishes the year with a wRC+ above the league average (100), then how can you be upset? Remember, the average wRC+ for catchers is 87. So 102 is MUCH better.
He’s got some room for growth on the ABS side, in my opinion, but he’s a very solid backup to a very solid starter. The Cubs catching tandem is, generally speaking, in fine shape.
And, hey, if it’s not … Owen Ayers isn’t too far away.
Miguel Amaya 2026 · C · Through July 15 Stat To Date Rest of Season Full Season Slash.229/.353/.351105 wRC+.235/.322/.37397 wRC+.231/.341/.360102 wRC+ Walk Rate11.4%8.2%10.1% Strikeout Rate22.8%21.7%22.4% Home Runs336 Stolen Bases000 RBI131427 WAR0.90.51.4 Rates blended from raw AB/H/BB/TB; counting stats summed. Full-season wRC+ is a PA-weighted estimate. Projections: ZiPS Depth Charts (rest of season). Source: FanGraphs.Michael Conforto, DH/RF
I think ZiPS is being a little too harsh on Michael Conforto’s first half. Yes, the strikeout rate is high, but he’s generally looked pretty good at the plate, and has obviously come through a number of times in really high leverage moments. That’s not accounted for in the projections, but I do think it serves as an important reminder that he might be … simply fine down the stretch.
Would I bet on him matching his 123 wRC+? No. But would I bet on him beating a 97 wRC+? Yes. Yes, I would.
Michael Conforto 2026 · DH/RF · Through July 15 Stat To Date Rest of Season Full Season Slash.243/.331/.486123 wRC+.219/.313/.39197 wRC+.232/.323/.444112 wRC+ Walk Rate11.9%10.8%11.4% Strikeout Rate29.4%27.2%28.5% Home Runs8412 Stolen Bases000 RBI221335 WAR0.60.61.2 Rates blended from raw AB/H/BB/TB; counting stats summed. Full-season wRC+ is a PA-weighted estimate. Projections: ZiPS Depth Charts (rest of season). Source: FanGraphs.I didn’t touch on a few of the other bench/role players, but Kevin Alcantara, Moises Ballesteros, and Pedro Ramirez don’t play all that often.Matt Shaw has twice spent time on the IL. I don’t think his projections, in particular, will be very useful. And when everyone’s healthy, it’s not yet clear how often he’ll play. For a moment, when he was back from his first stint on the IL, Shaw was taking almost every start in right field. But I think his second absence and the continued production from the lefty Michael Conforto might limit his playing time. I don’t necessarily hope that’s the case. Indeed, against lefties, Shaw has been PARTICULARLY impressive, but it just muddies the water enough to leave it off for now.
***
So there are the second-half and full-season projections for the Cubs key players. In terms of Homers, wRC+, and WAR, who do you think is under or over-estimated? I’d like to see PCA obliterate his numbers, or for Suzuki/Busch/Hoerner/Bregman to recapture their prior season magic, but are any of those reasonable? Or do you think ZiPS mostly got it right?
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