Less than three weeks before primary day, the first public polling since her exit suggests the opposite may be happening.
McMorrow, a state senator, suspended her campaign on July 5. A Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll conducted July 8 through July 11 found Stevens leading El-Sayed 48% to 41% among likely Democratic primary voters. Another survey by Tavern Research also showed Stevens ahead by one point.
Before El-Sayed entered the race in April 2025, McMorrow was widely viewed as the Democrat best positioned to occupy the party's progressive lane. But El-Sayed—who has been endorsed by the United Auto Workers, Sen. Bernie Sanders and Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Rashida Tlaib—quickly established himself as the campaign's leading progressive voice, running on Medicare for All, organized labor, and an overhaul of U.S. policy toward Israel.
So far, McMorrow has not endorsed either Stevens or El-Sayed. On Monday, Peters, the retiring incumbent, formally endorsed Stevens.
AIPAC’s involvement has become a lightning rod in the race, in which the two candidates’ differences on U.S. support for Israel has emerged as a dominant issue. Stevens has defended continued U.S. military aid to Israel while calling for a two-state solution, placing herself largely within the Democratic mainstream before the war in Gaza transformed the party's politics. El-Sayed has become one of the country's most outspoken Democratic critics of Israel, accusing it of committing genocide in Gaza and calling for an end to American military assistance. The issue has become central in Michigan, home to the country’s largest Arab American population and the birthplace of the "uncommitted" movement that protested former President Joe Biden’s handling of the war.
El-Sayed, meanwhile, has leaned on an energized national progressive network. His campaign reported raising $4.57 million during the most recent fundraising quarter—more than double what either Stevens or Republican Mike Rogers raised. Stevens raised $2.1 million during the same period, though she reported more cash on hand at the end of June.
A new Data for Progress poll commissioned by American Priorities, a pro-El-Sayed super PAC, shows him ahead by 13 points—though surveys sponsored by groups backing a specific candidate can often be less reliable.
El-Sayed has argued that Democrats should focus less on nominating the candidate perceived as safest for November and more on offering voters a bold economic agenda centered on expanding health care, strengthening labor unions, and confronting corporate influence. His campaign has cast the race as an opportunity for Democrats to embrace a more ambitious vision that would be better positioned to energize voters to turnout in November.
“I think this election could be a real change election,” says former Michigan Rep. Andy Levin, a progressive backing El-Sayed. “There's going to be several people around the country who show that the way to win purple districts isn't necessarily to run to the middle. It's to just be really honest and straightforward and make working-class people believe you will actually fight for them, and you won't be bought, and you won't be led astray by all of the fancy Washington interests.”
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