But an inconclusive war with Iran; a failure to defeat Hamas or Hezbollah; and a falling out with Washington, Israel’s essential benefactor, have left Netanyahu exposed. President Donald Trump has criticized Netanyahu for insubordination, citing his failure to fully support an Iran peace deal that the U.S. president urgently needs. Some Democrats, and many leaders around the world, have accused Netanyahu and Israeli forces of war crimes, which they deny.
Secular and centrist Israelis resent Netanyahu’s deep political dependence on ultra-Orthodox voters who contribute little to the nation’s economy and refuse military service. Others note that Netanyahu, now 76, has grappled with both prostate cancer and heart disease, and may judge him no longer fit to serve.
If Bennett, Lapid, and Eisenkot joined forces, they could probably form the next government. But both Bennett and Eisenkot want the top job and believe they can win. A fractured opposition that prevails in elections but can’t agree who’s in charge may be Netanyahu’s best chance. He would then have a window to cut a deal—likely with Blue & White party leader Benny Gantz—to stay in power.
An opposition win would not weaken Israel’s determination to work with Lebanon’s government to disarm Hezbollah. Any Israeli government would move toward a partial Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon while insisting on the right to strike back at future Hezbollah threats. A Netanyahu loss would make Israeli annexation of the West Bank less likely—though one should not expect any serious talk of a Palestinian state.
So this election will likely be the voters’ verdict on Netanyahu himself. The war has delayed a political reckoning. That delay is almost over.
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