The Open Championship returns to Royal Birkdale from July 16 to 19, and the top of the board looks about how you would expect. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Jon Rahm sit up front. That is fine if you want to bet a favorite. But the value at a links major almost never lives in the first three names. It lives a few tiers down, with players who fit the golf course better than their price suggests. That is what these Open Championship sleeper picks are about.
This week I am targeting two long shots: Robert MacIntyre and Chris Gotterup. Both are priced well outside the favorites, both are trending in the right direction, and both own the exact skills Royal Birkdale asks for. Let me walk through why, and then give you a couple of even longer darts if you want a small-stakes swing.
Why Sleepers Win at Royal Birkdale
Before you bet a single long shot, you have to understand what this course rewards. Royal Birkdale is a par 70 running about 7,220 yards through the valleys between the dunes. It is a fair, honest links, which is a big part of why the winners list here reads like a hall of fame ballot. The dunes frame the targets, so this is less about luck and more about pure ball-striking.
Distance is not the separator this week. Accuracy is. The greens are running firm and fast, quicker than a typical Open, and slightly offline approaches release into tightly mown collection areas instead of settling near the flag. So you want players who can flight the ball down in the wind, control their long irons, and scramble from short grass. The pot bunkers are true penalties, often a sideways punch-out, so keeping the ball out of the sand matters more than raw power.
The weather read helps the sleepers too. It looks warm and calm to start the week, with more cloud, breeze, and shower risk arriving over the weekend. A scoreable Thursday and Friday keep a wider group of players in the mix, which is exactly what you want when you are backing a long shot to hang around into Sunday. The cut is the top 70 and ties, a friendly line that lets more of the field survive to the weekend.
Put it together and the profile screams accurate iron players and elite scramblers, not high-ball bombers. Both of my sleepers check those boxes.
Apr 9, 2025; Augusta, Georgia, USA; Robert MacIntyre putts on the second green during a practice round of the Masters Tournament at Augusta National Golf Club. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn ImagesRobert MacIntyre (+4100)
If I could only bet one long shot this week, it would be Robert MacIntyre. He is +4100 at DraftKings and closer to +3000 at some other books, so shop around before you place it.
Start with the form. MacIntyre was right in the mix at last week’s Genesis Scottish Open, where he gained close to 10 strokes on approach. That is a monster number, and it came on a links setup very similar to what he will see at Birkdale. When a player irons it that well the week before a major, on the same style of golf, you pay attention.
Then there is the fit. MacIntyre is a Scot who grew up playing this brand of golf in the wind. He has never missed a cut at the Open Championship, which tells you he knows how to manage his game around a links even on the days it does not want to cooperate. That kind of steadiness is underrated in a major where a lot of big names get chewed up by the conditions and go home on Friday.
The knock is that he has not broken through and won one of these yet. That is a fair point, and it is baked into the price. But at +4100 you are not paying for a sure thing. You are paying for a live chance, and MacIntyre gives you a real one. His approach play is peaking, his links pedigree is genuine, and the course does not require him to out-muscle anybody. This is my favorite sleeper on the board.
Chris Gotterup (+2900)
Chris Gotterup is the other long shot I keep coming back to. He is +2900 at DraftKings, with a few books hanging him a touch shorter.
Gotterup has quietly built a complete game, and more important for this week, he has already shown he can handle links golf. He is a proven winner on this style of setup, and he made a strong showing in his Open debut a year ago. That combination matters. Plenty of Americans show up to their first or second Open and look lost in the wind. Gotterup has been there, done well, and clearly enjoys the puzzle.
His recent form backs it up. He has played well in his last couple of starts heading into Birkdale, which is the kind of momentum you want to see from a mid-tier name before you trust him at a major. He drives it well enough to stay out of trouble, he controls his irons, and he has the short-game touch to save par when an approach scoots into one of those collection areas.
At +2900 you are getting a player with legitimate links credentials at a price that treats him like a fringe contender. I think that is a little light. If the course stays firm and the wind behaves early, Gotterup is exactly the type who can post a low number on Thursday, grab the crowd’s attention, and ride it into the weekend. He is worth a small outright ticket and a look in your top 20 and top 10 markets too.
Mar 8, 2026; Orlando, Florida, USA; Chris Gotterup plays his shot from the eighth tee during the final round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-Imagn ImagesA Few More Long Shots to Watch
If you want to spread a little more action across the board, here are two additional darts worth a small play.
Justin Rose (+4300). Rose has been one of the best players in the majors this season, with a deep Open Championship record to lean on. He is boom or bust, so treat him as a volatile top-10 swing more than a steady outright. When his putter shows up, he can win any major on the schedule. Justin Thomas (+6000). This is a creative dart, not a core play. Thomas is a shot-maker who can flight the ball, and the number is long enough to make a tiny ticket fun. His Open record is thin, so keep the stake small and know what you are buying.Both of these are lottery-style plays. Bet them like it. A dollar or two to win a nice number, not a chunk of your bankroll.
How to Bet These Open Championship Sleepers
Long shots are not just about the outright win market. Some of the best value on a player like MacIntyre or Gotterup comes in the finishing-position bets. A top 20 or top 10 ticket pays out far more often than an outright, and it still rewards you for reading the course fit correctly.
Here is how I would approach it:
Put your bigger unit on the finishing markets. Top 20 and top 10 on MacIntyre and Gotterup give you more room for error than betting them to win outright. Keep the outright tickets small. That is the nature of a long shot. You are buying a big payout with a low probability, so the stake should reflect that. Shop your prices. MacIntyre ranges from about +3000 to +4100 depending on the book, and that gap is real money on a winning ticket. Never take the first number you see on a long shot. Consider a matchup or two. Head-to-head props let you back a player you trust against a specific opponent without needing him to beat the entire 156-man field.The whole point of a sleeper strategy is capital efficiency. You are spreading smaller stakes across a few live names instead of dumping everything on a chalky favorite who pays you almost nothing if he wins. Do it right and one hit covers a lot of misses.
BROOKLINE, MASSACHUSETTS – JUNE 19: Justin Thomas of the United States plays his shot from the sixth tee during the final round of the 122nd U.S. Open Championship at The Country Club on June 19, 2022 in Brookline, Massachusetts. (Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images)Frequently Asked Questions
Who are the best long shots for the 2026 Open Championship?
Robert MacIntyre at +4100 and Chris Gotterup at +2900 are the two sleepers I like most at Royal Birkdale. Both fit the accurate, links-style profile the course demands, and both are trending in the right direction. Justin Rose and Justin Thomas are additional darts for small stakes.
Why is Royal Birkdale good for sleeper picks?
Royal Birkdale rewards driving accuracy, long-iron control, and scrambling from short grass rather than pure distance. That levels the field a bit, because it takes the advantage away from the biggest bombers and gives precise ball-strikers a real chance. A friendly cut line at the top 70 and ties also keeps more long shots alive into the weekend.
Should I bet sleepers to win or to finish top 10?
For most bettors, the finishing-position markets offer better value on a long shot. A top 20 or top 10 bet cashes far more often than an outright, and it still rewards you for identifying a good course fit. Keep your outright tickets small and put the larger stake on the placement bets.
What is the weather forecast for the 2026 Open Championship?
The early read points to warm and calm conditions to open the week, with more cloud, breeze, and shower chances arriving over the weekend. Nothing severe is in the forecast as of now, which suggests a scoreable setup, though wind can always flip a links major quickly. Recheck it closer to Thursday.
Responsible Gambling
Betting long shots is fun, and that is exactly the mindset to keep. These are low-probability plays. You are going to lose most of them, and that is the deal you signed up for when you chased a big number. So treat every ticket as entertainment, not as an investment or a way to make rent.
Set a budget before the tournament starts and stick to it. Decide how much you are comfortable putting toward the Open this week, split it into small units, and do not chase a bigger bet after a couple of your sleepers miss the cut. Chasing losses is how a fun weekend turns into a bad one.
Only bet with money you can afford to lose, and never dip into funds you need for something else. If betting ever stops feeling like entertainment, or you feel like you cannot walk away, take a break and reach out for help. The best bettors are the ones who stay disciplined, protect their bankroll, and live to bet another week.
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