The Royals have been one of the more disappointing teams in MLB. They’re alongside the Angels as the two worst teams in the American League, the only AL clubs completely buried in the playoff picture.
That theoretically positions them as deadline sellers. However, as explored on the MLBTR podcast this week, Kansas City doesn’t have a lot of obvious trade candidates. Most of their impending free agents are either injured or have been ineffective. They’re not likely to kick off another full rebuild with Bobby Witt Jr. in his prime. That mostly leaves them to decide whether to deal a couple veteran starting pitchers whom they have signed beyond this season.
Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic report that the Royals are reluctant to move either Michael Wacha or Seth Lugo. They write that while Kansas City will listen to offers, the Royals have told other teams they’re not going to budge on very high asking prices. If that’s indeed the case, neither player is likely to move, as their contracts don’t have immense surplus value.
Wacha is playing on an $18MM salary. He’s signed for $14MM next year (with another $4MM available in performance bonuses) and his deal contains a matching club option or a $1MM buyout for the ’28 season. Lugo was a trade candidate last summer, but the Royals took him off the market by signing him to a two-year extension less than a week before the deadline. He’s making $20MM this year and next; there’s a club/vesting option that starts at $17MM or a $3MM buyout for ’28.
Rosenthal and Sammon report that Lugo’s extension came with a full no-trade clause. They write that Wacha’s deal has partial no-trade protection but not a full NTC. Kansas City controls both pitchers for two and a half years.
Wacha should have the higher trade value of the two. He’s a little bit cheaper and having the slightly better season. Although the Mets knocked him around for six runs this afternoon, he carries a 3.77 ERA over 119 1/3 innings. Wacha has fanned just under 20% of opponents compared to a 7% walk rate.
It’s essentially the same season that Wacha has had five years running. He doesn’t miss a ton of bats but attacks the strike zone with a six-pitch mix. He gets a decent number of weak fly balls and has kept his ERA below 4.00 each year since 2021. That profile plays better at Kansas City’s spacious Kauffmann Stadium than it does on the road, but Wacha would slot into the third or fourth spot in most teams’ rotations. He’s also leading the American League in innings pitched.
Lugo has shown the higher ceiling, finishing as a Cy Young runner-up a couple seasons ago. He hasn’t been as good over the last two years, combining for a 4.32 ERA with a 19.7% strikeout percentage over his last 44 starts. It’s a similar command oriented profile overall. Wacha throws a tick harder and has a slightly higher whiff rate. Lugo has also had more dramatic home/road splits and struggled of late, allowing nearly six earned runs per nine innings over his past 12 starts.
Wacha turned 35 last week. Lugo is a year and a half older and turns 37 in November. The Orioles signed Chris Bassitt for $18.5MM for his age-37 season. Merrill Kelly pulled a two-year, $40MM contract from the Diamondbacks at the same age. Lugo’s contract is in a similar range and he’s having a worse year than Kelly or Bassitt did in 2025. Wacha’s slightly lower deal probably comes in a few million dollars below what he’d make if he were a free agent. That suggests there’s some trade value, but the prospect return wouldn’t be great if another team is taking on the entire contract.
Even in what could be a pitching-starved trade market, the Royals shouldn’t expect a significant package of young talent for either starter. Establishing a high ask is more about a reluctance to trade controllable pitching at all. Their 2027 rotation picture is worrisome even with Lugo and Wacha in the fold.
Cole Ragans will miss most of the first half after undergoing UCL surgery. Kris Bubic is an impending free agent and hasn’t stayed healthy for the past few years. Noah Cameron hasn’t maintained his rookie form and looks like a fourth/fifth starter. The same is true of Stephen Kolek and Luinder Avila, the latter of whom might fit better in relief. Minor league depth arms Ryan Bergert and Ben Kudrna will be coming off season-ending surgeries. Their best pitching prospects (e.g. Kendry Chourio, David Shields, Justin Lamkin) have spent most or all of this season in A-ball.
If Kansas City trades Wacha or Lugo for an unspectacular return, they’d likely need to spend similar money for comparable or worse veteran arms in a weak free agent class. That likely sets up a quiet deadline overall. The Royals have seven impending free agents: Bubic, Carlos Estévez, Jonathan India, Matt Strahm, Lane Thomas, Starling Marte and John Schreiber.
Estévez and India are injured and have zero trade value. Bubic could’ve been a decent trade chip but is shut down again after another shoulder flareup. It’s doubtful he’ll be back before the August 3 deadline, though a contender could still give up a lottery ticket prospect while he’s hurt. Strahm has an ERA above 5.00 and has lost 10 percentage points off his strikeout rate. Thomas and Marte are short side platoon outfielders. Schreiber has a decent ERA (3.53) but has a career-worst 18.2% strikeout percentage across 35 2/3 innings.
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