Bombs resumed falling on Iranian targets on Wednesday just a few hours after President Trump publicly telegraphed the U.S. military’s next move — a choice he admitted probably wasn’t a good idea.
With a new round of U.S. air strikes underway, the second wave in 24 hours, President Trump promised to “just finish the job” in Iran that he started 130 days ago. The White House turn-a-way from a negotiated agreement with Iran comes as the president says he no longer trusts Iranian leaders, calling then “cuckoo.”
While move from the bargaining table back to the battlefield wasn’t much of a surprise considering such a porous cease fire was in place, the short-term attack plan now has experts in Chicago trying to figure out what the long view is. And, once again, considering the question of how this will end.
The beginning of the end of the Iran war ceasefire was visible on Iranian cell phone video that showed U.S. bombs dropped on a major port. That was the first wave of American air strikes that continued Wednesday night Tehran time.
A “key thing to keep in mind” when considering whether the U.S. and Iran are back at the starting line of the conflict is that “the war was never over,” says University of Chicago political scientist Paul Post.
Poast says the so-called memorandum of understanding signed by Iran and the U.S. was merely a 60-day framework for concluding hostilities, not an actual ending.
“It did extend the ceasefire, extended it for 60 days, but it seemed very unlikely that that was 60 days was going to be enough. And even under that condition of their negotiating their ceasefire, there was still the underlying issues involved, which is Iran wanting to control the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. Not allowing that, questions about the nuclear program,” Poast explained. “So it seemed like it was always a fragile condition. And what we just witnessed is finally a break for each other.”
Now that U.S. warplanes are back in the sky over Iran, the ceasefire is officially over and Iranian officials say that prospective agreement they signed is off the table.
So, how long do other Middle Eastern nations sit still and take it?
Poast says he’s “actually surprised” that the patience of other nations “hasn’t run out at this point, and largely because of the fact that they’ve been vulnerable.”
“One of the big things that they have based their identity on, if you look at places like Dubai is this is a place that is safe for individuals to be able to come to from all over the world, bring your wealth, come here for the tax shelter, not the bomb shelter. And that has been a big thing that has raised a lot of concerns with those governments about questioning the sustainability of having a close security relationship with the U.S. because it has left them to be vulnerable to these attacks by Iran,” Poast said.
As air strikes resume in Iran, four dreaded words have also come up again: “Boots on the ground.”
While sending in ground forces could accomplish what the air strikes have not, Poast says he doesn’t see the Trump administration with an appetite for ground troops — something that could draw in Russia and China to the fray.
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