Over the weekend, Russian presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov broke a long-standing taboo, calling Vladimir Putin’s so-called “special military operation” against Ukraine what is really is: a war.
In fact, this was no slip of the tongue, but was part of an information operation aiming to intimidate Europe into backing away from its support of Kyiv.
For years, calling the invasion a war in Russia could mean going to prison. In March 2022, the Criminal Code was revised with the addition of Articles 207.3 and 280.3 criminalising the “dissemination of knowingly false information” or “discrediting” the military – which often meant telling the truth about what was happening.
The goal was to intimidate rather than prosecute, and to scare people into toeing the party line. There have been high-profile prosecutions, from Moscow municipal deputy Alexei Gorinov, sentenced to seven years in prison for publicly saying that Ukrainian children were dying in the bombings, to dissident politician Ilya Yashin, given eight and a half years for discussing the killing of civilians in Bucha.
Putin did refer to a “real war” during his 2023 Victory Day parade speech, but he was talking less about Ukraine and more about a struggle by “the Western globalist elites” to “break apart and destroy our country”.
The official line has been that the “special military operation” in Ukraine was just one front in a wider political, economic and social war with the West.
Peskov, though, has now highlighted a shift in the official line. In an interview with Pavel Zarubin, perhaps the journalist the Kremlin most trusts, he said that “there’s a war going on, a real war… it all started as a special military operation. It continues as a war, because Kyiv has Berlin, Paris, The Hague, Oslo, and, unfortunately, Washington behind it”.
On one level, this may seem like a trivial change. Russian drones and missiles are still hammering Ukraine’s cities – and, increasingly, vice versa – whatever the conflict is called. However, Peskov is no maverick, and he chose his words carefully.
And Moscow’s increasing willingness to describe the conflict as a war has major political ramifications.
Black smoke rising from a refinery in Moscow on 18 June after a drone strike. Ukrainian strikes are pummelling enemy targets in Russian-held territory, disrupting supply lines and sparking a fuel crisis (Photo: Sefa Karacan/Anadolu via Getty)Nato leaders are now gathering in Ankara, Turkey, where discussion will focus not just on Europe reassuring Donald Trump that it is serious about “rebalancing” – spending more on its own defence as US assets are withdrawn – but also on continued support for Ukraine. The goal is to agree on a pledge that military assistance to Ukraine in 2027 will at least match this year’s combined total of £60bn.
Ukraine’s military capacity depends heavily on Europe, which covers about two-thirds of its budget. Likewise, its long-range strikes are often based on targeting data provided by the West, using missiles or drones built with components sourced from there, too.
In the face of this, Moscow is stepping up its efforts to intimidate Europe, part out of anger, part out of a desperate hope to halt assistance to Ukraine – or at least stop it from increasing.
This campaign is taking numerous forms. While many have been false alarms, there have been drone incursions over European airports and bases. GPS signals across northeastern Europe are also increasingly subject to jamming from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.
Meanwhile, hacks by what seem to be Russian-based groups – like the recent “FortiBleed” incident which saw logins of thousands of UK Government officials compromised – are likely to have been tacitly encouraged by the Kremlin.
Last week, two RAF F-35 fighter jets were scrambled when a Russian Tu-142 Bear-F maritime patrol aircraft flew “unnecessarily close” to the aircraft carrier HMS Prince of Wales in the Norwegian Sea. We can expect to see more of these kinds of incidents.
In and of themselves, none of these are of critical importance. However, in conjunction with alarmist Russian rhetoric, Moscow’s hope is that they create a sense of impending crisis.
As one German diplomat told The i Paper: “If enough people start to think that the choice is between war at home and abandoning Ukraine, it will begin to affect politicians’ decisions.”
By invoking the term “war”, the Kremlin is hoping not only to get Russians to rally around the flag, but also to make even the most determined European countries think again.
In his interview, Peskov shrugged off last week’s reports that Moscow may be considering some kind of “armed provocation” in Poland as mere “horror stories”. But determined to have his cake and eat it too, he also pointedly noted that “there are many companies in Poland manufacturing drones, which then fly toward us and attack our military”.
He added that the Russian military knew precisely where they were located.
There is no real evidence of an imminent Russian threat to Europe, beyond the existing campaign of covert subversion and sabotage. Nonetheless, the Kremlin sees a divided Europe as Ukraine’s Achilles’s heel. It hopes that by escalating its rhetoric it can undermine support for Kyiv – and thus tilt the balance of power in its favour.
It’s in Europe’s interest to make sure it doesn’t succeed.
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