Toronto’s aggressive spending caught up to it on the draft calendar. After exceeding the second surcharge threshold of the Competitive Balance Tax, the Blue Jays had their top pick knocked back 10 spots to No. 39, out of the first round entirely and into the second. They also surrendered their natural second-rounder to sign Dylan Cease, leaving this their lone early selection. For a contending club that has spent to keep pace with the Yankees, Dodgers, and Mets, it’s the price of doing business, and it puts extra weight on a single pick.
How the Board Sets Up for the Blue Jays
By No. 39, the first round and the supplemental picks are gone, and what remains is a scattered field of college arms, prep talent, and bats that slipped. Toronto’s system is an interesting case: it’s stocked with starting pitching, but much of that depth is years from the majors. That reality, plus a recent habit of spending early picks on arms, shapes the read here. The Blue Jays can take the best available talent without forcing a need, but the pull toward pitching is real.
The Most Likely Pick
A college arm is the lean. MLB Pipeline’s June 18 mock sent Mississippi right-hander Taylor Rabe to Toronto at No. 39, a late riser with one of the more intriguing developmental profiles among college pitchers.
Taylor Rabe (50) pitches against the North Carolina Tar Heels during the first inning at Charles Schwab Field. Mandatory Credit: Dylan Widger-Imagn ImagesRabe throws a four-seamer that has touched 99 with carry and a plus cutter, pairs it with plus control, and was dominant in a short postseason run for Ole Miss. For a team that has selected a pitcher in the first round in three of its last five drafts, including Trey Yesavage, who has already reached the majors, the fit follows the pattern.
The appeal is upside on a developmental track. Rabe threw limited innings in 2026 but flashed enough late to climb boards, the kind of high-ceiling arm a pitching-rich organization can afford to be patient with. Adding another projectable starter to an already deep stable would extend a clear organizational strength.
The Wild Card
The exact arm shifts depending on the mock. After the Combine, MLB Pipeline and its analysts pointed toward UCLA right-hander Logan Reddemann as a Toronto target, a pitcher who was pushing to become the second college arm drafted before a flexor strain cost him his final six starts. If his medicals check out, Reddemann offers mid-first-round talent at a discount slot, exactly the kind of value play a team picking this late hunts for.
There’s also a homegrown angle worth watching. Pipeline’s first mock of the cycle tied the Blue Jays to Canadian prep left-hander Sean Duncan, a Vanderbilt commit out of British Columbia with a true three-pitch mix and advanced command for his age. Toronto has shown interest in Canadian talent before, and Duncan would be a feel-good developmental swing. Whether it’s a college riser like Rabe, a falling arm like Reddemann, or a projectable prep lefty, the through-line points to pitching.
Bottom Line
Short on early capital, the Blue Jays look set to lean into a strength and add another arm at No. 39. Rabe is the most-mocked fit, a high-upside college riser, with Reddemann’s discounted talent and Canadian prep lefty Sean Duncan as alternatives. For an organization deep in pitching but light on MLB-ready options, a projectable starter is a sensible swing at a pick that, thanks to the penalty, carries more weight than its number suggests.
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