During the Iran war, the continued disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial passage through which around a fifth of global oil production flows, upended trade and sparked an energy crisis.
Aviation fuel costs for U.S. airlines increased by 78% to nearly $6.5 billion in April 2026 when compared to the same time last year, according to the Bureau of Transport Statistics.
Travelers “on impacted routes will be offered alternate travel arrangements or a refund in line with American’s customer-friendly schedule change policy,” a spokesperson told TIME.
Surcharges–a cost added by some airlines into tickets to offset the fluctuating cost of jet fuel–have also impacted American consumers.
Some carriers also increased their checked bag fees. American Airlines in April said they would be adjusting their price in “light of the current operating environment."
The average price for domestic flights in the U.S. is still much higher than it was last summer.
Despite the progress in the U.S.-Iran peace efforts, and even with the gradual reopening of the Strait and the ease in fuel prices, ticket prices are likely to remain elevated for the time being, experts tell TIME.
International inbound travel is projected to encounter a 1.6% growth, according to the U.S. Travel Association. This is in part due to the World Cup that's currently being hosted across North America, including 11 cities in the U.S. There’s also travel related to ongoing festivities for America’s 250th anniversary.
“Your prices are going to depend on how many people are up there flying, and in the summer, there tend to be more, and they tend to put pressure on fares, so there'll be demand side effects that probably lead to the higher fares [anyway],” he says.
Christopher Hodge, chief U.S. economist at Natixis, agrees that the high consumer demand is among the key reasons why “airline passenger fares have stayed high.”
Additionally, there hasn’t been much disruption to business travel, Hodge adds.
“It's a very competitive commodity-type industry with high capital intensity, so [carriers are] going to be flying those aircraft anyway,” he says. “If you could get a few extra passengers on, any extra passenger is almost 100% profit, so they will tend to compete it away relatively quickly.”
Risks and uncertainties remain
Oil prices rose by nearly 2.5% again on Thursday after a vessel in the Strait was struck by an unknown projectile, reviving security concerns.
“We're still in a very uncertain world,” he says. “That sort of pervades all airline operations, and the net effect of that is going to lead to higher prices.”
“This is a geopolitically-induced shock to energy prices, and that's what's really going to have more of a lasting effect,” adds Hodge.
The price of U.S. airlines no longer hedging fuel costs
The cost of airline fuel and oil typically makes up around a third of an airline's operating expenses, according to World Air Transport Statistics.
Many airlines around the world hedge the cost of buying jet fuel. For example, low-cost Irish airline Ryanair currently hedges 80% of its jet fuel costs, giving them a significant competitive advantage when fuel prices increase.
As a result, U.S. airlines have felt the rise of jet fuel prices more than many of their international competitors as they are exposed to market volatility.
“The problem for U.S. [airlines] is they had no hedging in place, so they had to pass on [price increases] straight away to the consumer,” says Shanley.
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