A person shields themselves from the rain while walking near the Bank of England building on the day the Monetary Policy Committee lowered interest rates, in London, Britain, Dec.18, 2025.
Toby Melville | Reuters
U.K. inflation held at 2.8% in May, slightly below expectations, official figures showed on Wednesday.
Economists polled by Reuters had been expecting the annual inflation rate to rise to 3% in May.
Inflation cooled to 2.8% in April, but the drop — attributed to a change to the U.K.’s regulated energy price cap — was expected to be short-lived. The price cap is due to rise by 13% later this summer, when energy costs will hit a 2-year high.
The U.K.’s Office for National Statistics said Wednesday that transport had been the biggest contributor to rising prices in May, partially offset by falling food and non-alcoholic drink prices.
Surging prices of air fares, which were up 10.3% month-on-month, as well as motor fuel and sea fares lifted transportation costs for Britons in May, the ONS said. Analysts said the timing of the Easter holiday this year may have contributed to rising fares.
Meanwhile, the price of gasoline rose by an average 0.6 pence (0.8 U.S. cents) per liter between April and May. In the same period a year earlier, average gasoline prices fell by 2.1 pence. Average prices rose to their highest since November 2022, when energy prices spiked in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
At its most recent meeting, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep its key interest rate at 3.75%.
Policymakers said at the time that “monetary policy cannot influence energy prices” in reference to the impact of the U.S.-Iran war, which has kept oil and gas prices elevated for months amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Markets are pricing in a 95% chance that the Bank of England holds rates steady at its next meeting on Thursday, LSEG data shows — but traders are expecting the central bank to hike interest rates by the end of this year.
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Correction: This story has been updated to reflect that May inflation hit 2.8%.
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