The Reds play in one of baseball’s most noted hitters’ havens, yet they’re well on their way to trotting out a below-average offense — as measured by wRC+ — for what would be a 16th consecutive season. Even setting aside park-adjusted figures like wRC+, Cincinnati has ranked in the top half of MLB in overall runs scored just five times in those 16 years and only placed in the top 10 on two occasions. The Reds haven’t ranked higher than ninth in runs scored in that time, which they’ve done twice (2021, 2023). They’re 18th in the majors in runs scored since 2024.
The Reds rank ninth in home runs but just 19th in runs scored this season. They’re near the bottom of the league in batting average (tied for 27th, at .229) and on-base percentage (25th, at .313). Their .396 slugging percentage is tied for 15th in MLB. Their overall 93 wRC+ sits 23rd.
There are plenty of culprits impacting their lackluster lineup this time around. Eugenio Suarez hasn’t yet found his footing in a return to Great American Ball Park. Catcher Tyler Stephenson hasn’t performed anywhere close to his career levels. Center fielder TJ Friedl‘s offensive struggles were so pronounced (.179/.259/.256) that he was optioned to Triple-A — as third-baseman-turned-right-fielder Noelvi Marte was earlier in the season. Marte is only playing right field because of the Reds’ surprising decision to acquire Ke’Bryan Hayes at last summer’s trade deadline; Hayes batted .142/.195/.225 in 147 plate appearances before landing on the injured list due to a continuation of the back troubles he’s battled for several seasons.
Star shortstop Elly De La Cruz and rookie Sal Stewart raced out of the gate to announce their presence as a formidable middle-of-the-order duo. Stewart, however, has cooled after a blistering start to his first full major league season. De La Cruz landed on the injured list due to a hamstring strain on the first of this month. He was given a two- to four-week timeline and appears to generally still be on that track.
Skipper Terry Francona tells the Reds beat that the plan for De La Cruz is to head out on a minor league rehab assignment this weekend (via C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic). The current plan is for De La Cruz to play five innings at shortstop Friday, a full game at designated hitter Saturday, and a full game at shortstop Sunday. He could be activated next Tuesday, but that’ll obviously hinge on how his hamstring responds to rehab work.
Cincinnati’s offense has struggled to push runs across the plate even with De La Cruz in the fold. The Reds rank 22nd in runs scored since De La Cruz was shelved. Second baseman Matt McLain has stepped up in a major way, playing shortstop regularly this month in place of De La Cruz and slashing .270/.413/.595 in a small sample of 46 plate appearances during June. If McLain can sustain anything close to that level of production at second base once De La Cruz has returned, it’d go a long way toward bolstering what has been a top-heavy offense that’s received little contribution from several positions.
Still, with so many regulars falling well shy of their expected level of contribution, it’s surprising that Cincinnati has managed to avoid ranking among the league’s very worst offenses. The front office’s biggest offseason swing — signing Suarez after the market didn’t produce a long-term deal for him — has been a miss so far. Their longshot effort to bring Kyle Schwarber back to his hometown fell short, presumably after ownership balked at the $150MM guarantee he received from Phillies. (The Orioles reportedly offered the same amount.)
Rather than from the big fish they targeted (Schwarber) or acquired (Suarez) in free agency or from the bulk of their previously steady regulars (e.g. Stephenson, Friedl), the Reds have instead been getting offense from unexpected sources. Cincinnati signed a pair of non-tendered veterans on the cheap — JJ Bleday, Nathaniel Lowe — and acquired Dane Myers from the Marlins in exchange for Double-A outfielder Ethan O’Donnell, who didn’t rank in the organization’s top 30 prospects. That trio of small-scale additions has proven to be a godsend.
Bleday, signed to a $1.4MM major league deal, leads the pack in terms of value he’s provided. He hasn’t simply been one of the Reds’ best hitters, the former top-five draft pick has been one of the most productive hitters in all of Major League Baseball. Among the 258 hitters this season with at least 150 plate appearances, Bleday ranks fifth with a .586 slugging percentage. He’s slashing .272/.367/.586 with 13 homers, 10 doubles, a triple, a huge 12.8% walk rate and a career-low 17.6% strikeout rate.
It’s the best stretch of Bleday’s big league career, though he did have a solid overall season in 2024, when he hit .243/.324/.437 with 20 homers for the A’s. Bleday is swinging the bat nearly three full miles per hour harder on average than he did during that 2024 season. He’s making harder contact as a result. His overall plate discipline profile is similar to his 2024-25 levels with the A’s. His 2026 chase rate and contact rates are extremely similar to those seasons, but Bleday is swinging a bit more frequently (particularly on pitches over the plate) and has cut his swinging-strike rate by a couple percentage points. In his own words, however, the improved results are due to “a little bit of everything,” as he tells Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer:
“It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what it is,” says Bleday. “I worked really hard this offseason to be better than what I was last year. And I did everything I could to put myself in position to be an everyday big leaguer again. It’s hard to pinpoint exactly, but it’s cool seeing the results.” (Wittenmyer also chatted with A’s skipper Mark Kotsay and several of Bleday’s former A’s teammates, none of whom are surprised to see him thriving elsewhere; fans of both clubs are encouraged to check out the interviews in full.)
The Bleday signing has been a jackpot for the Reds. Not only has he been excellent in his new environs — he’s controllable for two additional years beyond the current campaign. The Reds can keep Bleday through 2028, though he’ll be owed a pair of arbitration raises along the way. If he can sustain even 75% or so of this output, that’ll be a no-brainer.
There’s no future control to be had over the 30-year-old Lowe, but that’s about the only possible complaint Reds fans could have with how his signing played out. Lowe stumbled through an ugly four months with the Nationals last season before being cut loose in August. He landed with the Red Sox shortly thereafter, and for the final six weeks of the season looked like the generally steady producer he’d been with the Rangers over the four prior seasons. Lowe’s track record gave him a projected arbitration price of $13.5MM, so the Red Sox non-tendered him. It seems no club was willing to give him a 40-man spot, as the Reds scooped him on a minor league deal with just a $1.75MM salary.
In all likelihood, several teams around the league are kicking themselves for passing. Lowe looks even better than he did with the Rangers from 2021-24. Over those four years in Texas, he slashed a combined .274/.359/.432. With Cincinnati, he’s at .257/.351/.493 in 174 plate appearances. It helps to be playing at a more hitter-friendly park, but Lowe’s .237 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) is considerably higher than the .158 mark he posted in four years as a Ranger. He’s popped nine homers on the season and walked in nearly 13% of his plate appearances.
Like Bleday, Lowe has seen a big uptick in his bat speed. On average, it hasn’t led to any major gains in exit velocity or hard hit rate, but Lowe is barreling far more balls than he ever has and swinging through fewer pitches than he has in the past. His production against four-seamers is actually down this year, but he’s been far better than usual against sinkers, cutters and splitters while bouncing back in a big way from a couple down seasons against changeups.
Myers, 30, hasn’t had as many plate appearances as his teammates and hasn’t been as productive in the 117 he’s amassed, but a .263/.368/.394 line out of someone who’s effectively been a fourth outfielder will still play just fine. He’s been used more against lefties than righties, but the righty-swinging Myers has been solid against pitchers of either handedness.
There’s probably some BABIP smoke and mirrors at work to some extent, but Myers is making way more contact against righties and walking at a far higher clip than at any point in his career. His 17.8% chase rate on balls outside the strike zone is tied for the fifth-lowest among the 339 hitters who’ve taken at least 100 plate appearances this season. Myers’ contact rate entering the season was 76.6%. This year, he’s at 83.9%. He hasn’t had the big jump in bat speed we’ve seen with Bleday and Lowe, but Myers is making far more contact both in the zone and off the plate on the rare instances he does chase.
Myers has even more remaining club control than Bleday. He’s not yet arbitration-eligible but will be for the first time this winter. Cincinnati can control him three additional years, up through the 2029 campaign. We’re looking at a pretty small sample that includes a .343 average on balls in play, so there’s no sense in getting carried away with the idea that Myers can be a key piece moving forward, but he’s a decent runner with 99th percentile arm strength in the outfield and solid range. He has the makings of a useful role player if he can sustain this year’s gains in plate discipline, pitch selection and contact.
The Reds haven’t taken many big free agent swings in recent years, particularly when it comes to the lineup. Those they’ve made — Suarez, Jeimer Candelario (three years, $45MM) — haven’t panned out nearly as well as hoped. Suarez still has time to turn that around and, to his credit, has homered three times in his past six games. However, the lack of high-profile additions and the scattershot track record of success with the larger-scale moves they do make in free agency makes it all the more important to have some successes when shopping in the bargain section.
The Reds have done well in that regard this year, and they’re not far from getting Hunter Greene back to join Chase Burns atop the rotation. That’ll be a big boost for the rotation, but Cincinnati feels like a team that’s going to need to add at least one bat at this year’s deadline. Even if they pivot toward selling, there’s some sense to bringing in a major league bat that’s controlled beyond the current season (as they tried to do last year with Hayes). The Reds currently only have six players who’ve produced league-average offense, by measure of wRC+: De La Cruz, Bleday, Stewart, Lowe, Myers and Spencer Steer. They surely have hope that some combination of Suarez, McLain and/or Marte can turn things around, but upgrading behind the plate, in the outfield or at designated hitter still seems prudent.
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