With the Makerfield by-election just days away, conversation in Westminster is already turning to what an Andy Burnham government would look like if the Greater Manchester mayor claims victory and then ousts Sir Keir Starmer from Downing Street.
Perhaps the biggest early decision for Burnham would be who he picks as his chancellor.
Given Burnham has chosen to rail against 40 years of “neoliberalism” during the by-election campaign, there was an early assumption that the second most important job in government would go to a member of the party’s “soft left”, with Energy Secretary Ed Miliband seen as the leading candidate.
This was bolstered by a widespread belief in Labour circles that Miliband has been lending behind-the-scenes support to Burnham, with one of the Energy Secretary’s special advisers seconded to the Makerfield campaign in a communications role.
However, many Labour MPs now think that Miliband will fall short of No 11 if Burnham does become prime minister.
A Labour MP told The i Paper that Miliband would not be chancellor because he is “not pragmatic enough”.
Burnham has certainly struck a different tone to Miliband when it comes to one of the issues closest to the Energy Secretary’s heart – the future of the North Sea.
While Miliband has been the driving force behind a ban on new oil and gas exploration licences – a measure which the Government is currently trying to legislate – Burnham has said he has an “open mind” on the issue.
Another Labour MP said they believed Burnham would overlook Miliband to give himself more freedom of manoeuvre.
Going for a candidate other than Miliband would ensure there is “less of a stranglehold on the difficult choices facing government: defence, welfare reform and net zero,” they said.
The MP said that each of the three issues had to be “urgently addressed” within the next year.
Burnham has already said that he would look to find more money to fund the long-stalled Defence Investment Plan (DIP) from welfare spending.
The Sunday Times reported this weekend that Burnham advisers worry that Miliband in No 11 would constrain his options.
“Andy will need maximal latitude on a number of fronts so that he and his team can demonstrate change and deliver. One of these has to be net zero,” one source said.
The source raised concerns that every time Burnham wanted to “take a pragmatic decision to cut cost of living, with minimal environmental impact, you’ve got your chancellor on resignation watch”.
“It’s a ticking time bomb we don’t need when everyone has to be focused on getting stuff done and dialling down the personality-based political dramas,” they said.
Not everyone thinks that Miliband should be written off.
A Burnham supporting Labour MP said: “Don’t forget that Ed was a Treasury special adviser, massive economics experience.
“He’s basically turned the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero into an industrial powerhouse department, with over £90bn of private sector investment leveraged since the general election.
“[It] would be wrong to count him in or out at this stage.”
Burnham and Miliband have remained allies after they both contested the 2010 Labour leadership contest (Photo: Dan Kitwood/Getty)Still, many Labour MPs think that the leading candidate to be Chancellor is now the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood.
One Labour MP told The i Paper that as a politician on the Labour right, Mahmood would be a more palatable appointment for the bond markets.
The prospect of Burnham in No 10 has already caused jitters in the financial markets because of a belief that he would preside over increased spending and borrowing, so providing reassurance to international investors will be a critical early task for a Burnham administration.
The Sunday Times reported that Mahmood’s preference would be to remain in the Home Office to deliver tough immigration reforms.
But one Labour MP suggested she could seek assurances from Burnham that he would continue her approach.
“She might only move if whoever follows her at the Home Office will implement her immigration reforms in full,” they said.
Beyond Miliband and Mahmood, other candidates for the chancellorship include Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper and Work and Pensions Secretary Pat McFadden.
Both are experienced politicians and would be seen as a safe pair of hands. Former health secretary Wes Streeting is another member of the Labour right who might go down well with the markets, but Labour MPs are sceptical that Burnham would give such a big job to his leadership rival. Some also think that the former health secretary overplayed his hand with his decision to resign from Starmer’s Cabinet.
As The i Paper reported earlier this month, some people think that Chancellor Rachel Reeves is positioning herself to try to keep her job under a Burnham premiership on the basis that it would provide economic stability.
However, other Labour MPs think Reeves is “toast” if Burnham becomes prime minister because of her deep unpopularity with voters. A Labour backbencher said earlier this month that it would be “utterly ridiculous” if she remained in post because “every single big decision has been her fault”.
John Healey’s explosive decision to resign as defence secretary, accusing Reeves of not providing enough money to the DIP to keep Britain safe, has surely only lowered her chances of staying on.
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