The Dutch are out to protect a proud record in opening group matches at the World Cup. Look ahead to Sunday’s Group F clash with our Netherlands vs Japan prediction and preview.
Netherlands vs Japan: The Key Insights
Netherlands are considered favourites for this game by Opta’s supercomputer with a 49.2% win probability to Japan’s 26.0%. The Oranje are unbeaten in their last 16 group matches at the FIFA World Cup (W12 D4), the longest current unbeaten run. Japan have won their first match in their last two FIFA World Cup appearances.Netherlands hope to protect a proud record in opening fixtures as they prepare to face off with Japan at the 2026 World Cup.
The two nations will get their respective Group F campaigns under way at Dallas Stadium in Arlington on Sunday, with these sides the strong favourites to make it out of the pool.
Indeed, history suggests Ronald Koeman’s men can make a strong start, given Netherlands are unbeaten in their last nine opening matches at the World Cup, winning seven and drawing two of those.
You have to go back as far as 1938 for the last time the Oranje were beaten in their first match of the tournament, losing 3-0 to Czechoslovakia on that occasion.
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Coincidentally, their last defeat in the pool stages came in the United States, with Belgium securing a 1-0 victory in Orlando, Florida, in 1994. Dick Advocaat, who will coach Curaçao at this edition, was their head coach on that day.
After failing to qualify in 2018, Netherlands made the quarter-finals four years ago, and will be making their 12th World Cup appearance here. They have made the final on three occasions. in 1974, 1978, and 2010, with no other team finishing as runners-up on more occasions without ever winning the trophy.
Overall, Netherlands have won 54.5% of their matches at the World Cup (30 out of 55). Before the 2026 World Cup kicked off, only Brazil (66.7%) and Germany (60.7%) have a higher win rate in the history of the tournament. Moreover, they are just four goals away from reaching 100 at the World Cup.
Koeman will be taking charge of a team at the global showpiece for the first time, and second major tournament after Euro 2024. He represented Netherlands at a World Cup twice as a player in 1990 and 1994.
Memphis Depay will once again hope to be a focal point. The forward was both top scorer (eight) and joint-top assist provider (four) for his country in qualifying.
Japan will be hoping for another statement group-stage win this time around, having defeated both Germany and Spain four years ago in Qatar.
The Samurai Blue have won their opening match in their past two World Cup appearances, triumphing 2-1 over Colombia in 2018 and by the same scoreline against Germany four years ago.
However, Japan have never progressed beyond the round of 16, and hold the unwanted record for the most World Cup matches played without ever reaching the quarter-finals (25).
This will mark their eighth consecutive World Cup appearance, the second-longest run by an Asian nation behind South Korea’s current streak of 11 straight tournaments.
Hajime Moriyasu’s side scored the most goals in the AFC section of qualifying, registering 51 in the ‘for’ tally (discounting three goals as they were awarded a 3-0 victory against North Korea).
Excluding the host nations, Japan were the first side to qualify for the tournament. They had more players involved in 10+ goals during qualification than any other AFC team – Ayase Ueda (10 – eight goals, two assists).
Yūto Nagatomo, still going strong at the age of 39, could also make history by becoming the first Asian to play in five World Cups.
Netherlands vs Japan Head-to-Head
This Group F clash marks the second time these two nations have met at a World Cup.
The first encounter was during the 2010 group stage, with Wesley Sneijder scoring the only goal in a 1-0 victory. Netherlands would go on to reach the final, where they were beaten by Spain.
In total, the countries have faced off on three occasions overall, with Japan yet to register a win (D1, L2).
However, Japan did go unbeaten in regulation time against European nations at the last World Cup, beating Germany and Spain in the group stages before they were knocked out by Croatia on penalties in the last 16 following a 1-1 draw after extra-time.
Netherlands vs Japan Prediction
The Oranje are considered favourites by the Opta supercomputer, which gives them a 49.2% chance of emerging victorious.
Japan, meanwhile, have a win probability of 26.0%, with the chance of a draw rated at 24.8%.
In terms of the competition overall, Netherlands are fancied as a 49.7% shot to top the group, while they are strongly fancied to at least make the knockout stages (89.4%). In terms of their dreams of winning the competition, their chances are at 3.9% at the time of writing, the eighth best of all 48 teams.
For Japan, there is a 25.1% probability of topping Group F, and a strong 75.4% chance of making the knockout stages. Their chances of lifting the trophy are rated at 1.3%.
Netherlands vs Japan Squads
Netherlands: Bart Verbruggen, Robin Roefs, Mark Flekken, Lutsharel Geertruida, Virgil van Dijk, Nathan Aké, Jan Paul van Hecke, Micky van de Ven, Denzel Dumfries, Jorrel Hato, Quinten Timber, Marten de Roon, Ryan Gravenberch, Mats Wieffer, Tijjani Reijnders, Guus Til, Teun Koopmeiners, Frenkie de Jong, Justin Kluivert, Wout Weghorst, Memphis Depay, Cody Gakpo, Noa Lang, Donyell Malen, Brian Brobbey, Crysencio Summerville.
Japan: Zion Suzuki, Keisuke Osako, Tomoki Hayakawa, Yukinari Sugawara, Shogo Taniguchi, Ko Itakura, Yuto Nagatomo, Tsuyoshi Watanabe, Ayumu Seko, Hiroki Ito, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Junnosuke Suzuki, Wataru Endo, Ao Tanaka, Ritsu Doan, Daichi Kamada, Yuito Suzuki, Kaishu Sano, Takefusa Kubo, Keisuke Goto, Daizen Maeda, Keito Nakamura, Junya Ito, Ayase Ueda, Koki Ogawa, Kento Shiogai.
Netherlands vs Japan Predicted Lineups
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Netherlands vs Japan Prediction: World Cup 2026 Match Preview Opta Analyst.
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