An upcoming El Niño is predicted to bring droughts and crop failures which could drive up the cost of foods such as rice and chocolate in the UK.
The UN has warned the world to prepare for the incoming weather pattern, which increases global temperatures and supercharges extreme weather and could bring another year of record heat – most likely in 2027.
Countries including India, Australia and parts of Africa are expected to be most impacted by crop failures, meaning food produced in these areas are most exposed to price rises.
Other goods which could potentially be impacted are fruits like grapes, lemons, oranges and nectarines from South Africa, Peru and Egypt, coffee from Vietnam and Brazil and Kenyan tea.
Experts said UK food suppliers should prepare by diversifying their supply chains, but warned this “wasn’t really happening”.
‘This could be something we’ve never seen before’
Global weather patterns are heavily affected by a naturally occurring transition between warm and cool weather patterns in the tropical Pacific Ocean, known as El Niño and La Niña.
The cooler pattern, La Niña, has been dominant since the end of 2024, but forecasters are warning the longer phase, El Niño, is now emerging and will last up to a year.
Signs are emerging that this could be a particularly strong El Niño. Forecasters measure the strength of an El Niño by looking at a region called the Niño 3.4 in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean and compare a three-monthly average of the sea surface temperature to the long-term average.
Long range forecasts are currently predicting rises of around 2.5-3.5°C above the long-term average towards the end of the year, which could be the highest increase ever recorded.
Australia is one country forecast to endure droughts due to El Nino (Photo: Getty Images)The most recent strong El Niño’s were recorded in 1997 and 2015, which peaked at around 2.7°C and 3°C above average respectively.
“There is a possibility that we could see something that we haven’t seen before,” warned Professor Emily Black, a climate expert at the University of Reading. However, she stressed there was still a degree of uncertainty in the models.
How an El Niño can drive up food prices
Globally an El Niño drives up average temperatures, but its impacts vary in different regions depending on how it interacts with other weather systems.
For example, India, Australia and central South America are more likely to experience drought, while the southern USA is more likely to experience heavy rainfall.
Due to our distance from the Pacific, the UK and Europe are among the least affected by an El Niño. However, the UK is affected by rising food prices as we import a lot of our food from the most exposed areas.
Dr Weston Anderson, Assistant Research Professor in the Department of Geographical Sciences at the University of Maryland, said the impacts of El Niño can often “offset” each other on a global scale.
For example, if one region has poor wheat yields, another might have increased yields meaning global supply remains consistent.
However, he said some food such as rice and chocolate are most exposed as their production is more concentrated.
For example, he said there was “concern” around the impact of El Niño on India, which is responsible for around 40 per cent of the world’s rice supply.
The impact on the global production of cacao could see rising chocolate prices in the UK (Photo: Getty Images)“We do have concerns about potential monsoon deficits leading to lower rice production,” said Dr Anderson.
While there are currently “relatively good stocks” of rice, the impact would depend on “policies and responses” to the El Niño.
For example, during the last El Niño, India banned rice exports as part of efforts to curb rising inflation domestically, leading to a surge in global prices.
Chocolate is another food that is could see price spikes; during the last El Niño cocoa prices more than doubled to reach record highs. As a result, the price of chocolate in the UK increased by 43 per cent between 2022 and 2025, according to the ECIU.
“One aspect about cocoa that’s unique is it is extremely concentrated in its production, meaning that extreme weather in a relatively small area can affect a large fraction of global production,” Dr Anderson said.
Iran war adds to instability
Alongside the El Niño, global food supply is being disrupted by the Iran War, as the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz impacts the supply of fuel and fertiliser.
The impact could lead to rising prices of chocolate, rice and some fruits on UK supermarket shelves (Photo: Getty Images)The cost of fertiliser has risen by around 40 per cent since the war started and the National Farmers Union has warned that some farmers are questioning whether to plant crops due to the surge in costs.
On Wednesday, the World Bank issued a forecast that warned “disruptive weather” would pile pressure on the food system that was already under strain due to the war in Iran.
“Beyond developments in the Middle East, the possible emergence of El Niño weather conditions could push food prices above current expectations,” the report said.
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