The flat-roofed Stubshaw Cross Club in Wigan is an unlikely hotseat of power. One visitor describes the 1980s-built social club as “more Phoenix Nights than Game of Thrones”.
With mismatched floor tiles, cheap pints and a big screen showing World Cup games, Andy Burnham’s campaign HQ around 200 miles from Downing Street is buzzing as visiting Cabinet ministers add their signatures to the traditional by-election visitors’ poster.
During the Makerfield by-election the felt tip scrawls are evidence of fealty to the new king. One name is missing: Sir Keir Starmer, who has not made good on his threat to visit the seat.
Barring surprises or polling humdingers, by Friday Burnham, currently Mayor of Greater Manchester will have won the seat and be en route to Westminster to challenge Starmer. But even before the ballot boxes have opened, the electricity of power has already rerouted up the M1. In Labour, Burnham is now the prism for every future decision, from defence spending to local buses.
One Government source said they were worried about a protracted fight if Starmer digs in in the face of Burnham’s challenge, as the Prime Minister has repeatedly indicated.
“The contest has to move quickly otherwise we won’t be able to run legislation. On anything contentious, people will be just waiting to hear what Andy thinks on any given subject. The illusion of power is where it is going, not where it is at. And it has shifted up North,” they said.
“Some people are doing their jobs, others are auditioning for the jobs they want,” a Labour MP remarked sniffily of their colleagues this week. “But hardly anyone is thinking about what Keir wants.”
In Makerfield there has been such a steady stream of Labour ministers, staffers and general hangers-on that longtime Burnham allies note that some animals are more equal – or perhaps helpful – than others.
While grateful for leaflet-delivering manpower, some Labour MPs plugging the party line to voters are guilty of misunderstanding a local nuance, which requires simultaneously campaigning on Burnham’s Manchester record while ignoring Starmer’s in London.
Burnham’s aides are said to have two spreadsheets of the campaign’s visitors: those who have been “actually helpful”, and the tourists who have just been up there to sign their name and produce content for their socials. “Loyalty is very important to Andy,” one campaigner said.
Meanwhile, Starmer is insisting to anyone who’ll listen that he can see off Burnham. “Let me be clear that this is not about personal vanity, it is not about stubbornness, it is about a very deep sense of duty,” Starmer told the BBC on Friday. “Whoever is prime minister is going to face the same prevailing winds as I am facing, none of that is going to change.”
The Prime Minister’s idea of duty is central to how allies of Burnham see his leadership challenge playing out: they hope to appeal to him to stand aside with an orderly transition of power. A coronation would be less messy but it wouldn’t take into account the views of the party’s grassroots, who are historically loyal to their first choice.
“The membership is pissed off,” a Cabinet minister told The i Paper. “They think we’ve fallen into the Tory trap” – that is, fighting among themselves.
Andy Burnham, Mayor of Greater Manchester meets a resident and his pet while canvassing in Wigan during the Makerfield by-election campaign (Photo by Ryan Jenkinson/Getty)Starmer and his aides have not given up. The Prime Minister’s allies dismiss Burnham’s track record of running for leader after coming second to Jeremy Corbyn in 2015. They also mutter about Burnham’s apparently loose approach to the public finances and the upfront costs of his fledgling reforms: buses everywhere and nationalising water doesn’t come for free.
As if to emphasise their point, the Greater Manchester Mayor popped up on Wednesday to suggest Waspi women deserve billions in compensation, only to reverse–ferret a day later as the spending implications hit home.
As the rain dampened the mood in Westminster this week, there was a sense of glumness among some Labour MPs: “There is a wave of Labour women pissed off that a bunch of blokes are going to ‘save us’. There is also a generational wave of the 2024 bunch being pissed off too at being sidelined. The people who did their politics in opposition need to stand out of the way and let some of the new talent come through.”
A second Cabinet minister said they were “quite sad that in two years we’ve gone from such a triumph, and this is where we are”.
The senior minister predicted a coronation for Burnham, with former health secretary Wes Streeting not ready to command enough support. “I don’t think Wes will stand. There is no point now. No one wants a divided party. The question is when he will fall in behind Andy, not if. There’s no point Keir standing. He won’t win. He just can’t win,” the Cabinet minister said.
Streeting, however, has other ideas. He repeatedly insists he will stand against Burnham and will spend the weekend finishing writing a keynote economic speech on how to drive growth, to be delivered early next week.
John Healey’s resignation as defence secretary on Thursday over military spending delivered a one-two punch against Starmer: while he clearly recognised the threats facing the country, he was powerless against his Chancellor and unable to secure the money that was needed to address these threats.
Unless he visits Makerfield this weekend, the Prime Minister has timed out. He will not be adding his name to the Wigan’s social club’s poster of Burnham loyalists. Instead, he heads off to the G7 meeting in Evian, France, knowing that time is running away from him.
Starmer insists he will fight on, but the power has bypassed him. Healey knows he has a greater chance of getting Burnham or Streeting to rip up the defence plan and start again. Outsider leadership contender and former military man Al Carns would certainly do so.
Westminster is holding its breath, waiting for Makerfield to deliver Burnham back to Parliament. But power already rests in Stubshaw Cross Club.
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