Ministers loyal to Sir Keir Starmer are plotting how to paint his rival Andy Burnham as a great untested leader without a mandate to govern, The i Paper can reveal.
One Cabinet source, who is supportive of the Prime Minister, believes that 95 per cent of Starmer’s top team will stand by him as enthusiasm for the Mayor of Greater Manchester is cooling.
They argued that some Labour MPs and ministers were beginning to question what Burnham stands for.
Starmer had been expected to join Burnham on the campaign trail this week, but it is understood that is no longer likely to happen. One senior Whitehall source said: “The PM knows they hate him up there. I think there were concerns he would be booed.”
Nevertheless, a senior Government source claimed that Starmer had a “very good chance” of winning any forthcoming contest.
If the Prime Minister can survive, the Cabinet minister said it would be “tempting” to sack Rachel Reeves, the Chancellor, to signal a clean break with past failures, including axing the winter fuel allowance, the so-called farm tax and the botched welfare reform plans.
Starmer’s allies privately estimate a roughly 60/40 split in favour of Burnham, however, they believe his support is “soft” and could erode once a contest is underway.” They also believe that around two-thirds of Labour’s membership, who will have a vote in any forthcoming contest, do not want to see the Prime Minister challenged and have “no appetite for regicide.”
However, in the event a contest is triggered if Burnham wins next week’s Makerfield by-election, loyalists are beginning to frame the strategy that they believe will smooth Starmer’s path to victory.
‘Stop Burnham’ campaign
The “stop Burnham” campaign will cast the former Blairite Cabinet Minister as a great untested unknown without a mandate, against a Labour leader who was responsible for a landslide victory only two years ago and is slowly turning things around. They will point to recent good news, which saw the UK’s economy grow by 0.6 percent this year – the fastest in the G7 – wage growth and falling NHS waiting lists.
A senior party source said: “As Mayor of Greater Manchester you spend millions given to you by the Government, you don’t have to decide what you are going to cut, what to do about welfare, what you are going to do about the fiscal rules… Andy is untested in lots of respects. It will be a very different type of scrutiny to what he is used to, and I think in the heat of the contest that would come through.”
They will also put the spotlight on a series of policy U-turns by Burnham during the by-election campaign, including on immigration, the fiscal rules and Europe.
“I don’t think the party is going to let someone walk into Downing Street when you don’t know what you will be getting,” the source added.
Over the weekend, Starmer told supporters that he will stand in any future leadership contest that is triggered.
The Prime Minister, who believes a leadership contest would plunge the country into chaos, said he had won a massive majority two years ago and that he has a mandate to deliver.
Starmer resolves to fight on
Starmer’s supporters have previously said that he would “look at the numbers” before deciding whether to stand against Burnham in any forthcoming contest.
However, it is understood that his resolve has hardened in recent days and weeks.
The Cabinet source said: “Any human would consider their position given the scale of the local election defeat and the response by some in the party. But he [Starmer] has got a strong sense of duty. He was elected on a manifesto two years ago and he is delivering on that manifesto, but people are not yet feeling that change yet, but chucking out the PM only slows down our ability to bring about further change.”
An insider who had spoken to the PM recently about his intentions, said he was “100 per cent” going to stand against Burnham, adding: “He is very determined.”
They said he had transformed Labour in the space of five years from a “corpse” to a party that won a landslide victory in July 2024. “He didn’t go through that journey so that he could just shrivel away in No 10 when someone comes and waves a stick at the door. He will fight for it.”
There are also questions about who in the Cabinet would survive a Starmer victory, which several senior sources claim has been “dramatically underpriced.”
There is also lingering anger in the Cabinet at Wes Streeting, the former Health Secretary, whose own ambitions have been blamed for destabilising the Government. When he resigned from the Cabinet last month, Streeting sent a blistering letter to the PM where he criticised the Government’s “drift” and “lack of vision”.
‘Streeting could struggle to get a seat in anyone’s Cabinet’
“He’s a silly boy,” fumed one former colleague. “No-one thinks he is very loyal anymore, so he is going to struggle to get a seat in anyone’s Cabinet. That’s what happens when your ego gets bigger than your common sense.”
As next Thursday’s Makerfield by-election grows closer, the stark choice facing the Labour Party is focussing minds after Burnham revealed in his Question Time performance that he intends to join a leadership race if he is victorious.
For all the talk of loyalty, much of the Cabinet’s eventual positioning is likely to come down to self-preservation. It is expected that most ministers will fall behind whichever candidate looks most likely to guarantee them a job.
However, some Cabinet ministers have already signalled their intent. Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary, was among a group of ministers who told Starmer after the local election losses that he needed to set out a timetable for his departure.
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