Democrats are nervous about Platner, and they should be. In a must-win Senate race, voters have nominated a high-risk, high-reward candidate—one whose downside seems much clearer than his upside. That said, all is not lost. Platner has a very strong chance of winning this seat. These last few weeks could end up being much ado about little.
In “wave” elections, as 2026 is likely to be, politicians from the president’s party often lose even if they are, like Collins, well-established figures. If you want to know what Platner’s biggest advantage is, it’s that he is a Democrat running in 2026.
Mills getting 20 percent of Tuesday’s vote after suspending her campaign makes Platner look weak. But the broader story of the primary is that Platner was so thoroughly defeating Mills, the twice-elected governor recruited by the national Democratic Party for this Senate seat, that she stopped running to avoid the embarrassment of a double-digit loss. That’s impressive.
There is some evidence that Collins’s act of frequently claiming to be “concerned” with Trump but largely voting for his policies is wearing thin in Maine. In 2017, 67 percent of Maine voters approved of Collins, compared to 27 percent who disapproved, according to Morning Consult. But in a Morning Consult survey conducted last year, 41 percent of Maine voters approved of her, while 55 percent disapproved. That’s a massive downward spiral. Other surveys also show that more Maine residents disapprove of Collins more than those that approve of her. At a time when anti-Washington and anti-establishment sentiment is very high, being a 73-year-old who has served in the Senate since 1997 hurts politically. Collins can’t run against the status quo—she is the status quo.
Besides that, there’s abortion rights and Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. As my colleague Michael Tomasky noted earlier this week, Collins defended her critical 2018 vote for Kavanaugh by hinting that he told her would not vote to overturn Roe v. Wade. Kavanaugh did exactly that four years later. Platner has something Collins’s Democratic opponents in 2008, 2014, and 2020 didn’t: A clear illustration of the dangers of Collins’s loyalty to the Republican Party. He can and should hammer Collins for both backing an anti-choice judge—as well as either stupidly believing his promises to her, or misleading voters about Kavanagh’s intentions. That’s an issue that could really help Platner with moderate women.
Ultimately, the party’s center-left wing must decide if it wants to unify around Platner to defeat Collins or would prefer to keep a re-elected Collins around rather than embolden the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Remember: If the party’s centrists sink Platner, they will likely be sinking their own chances to take back the Senate itself—and with it the chance to hold Trump accountable and thwart his authoritarian agenda.
Centrists should immediately abandon this ill-conceived idea that Platner withdraw so the state’s Democratic Party can choose his replacement. Tens of thousands of Maine residents chose him as their nominee. He won fair and square. And I can’t imagine an idea more likely to annoy a wide cross section of voters than a Democratic Party that propped up Joe Biden despite his declining faculties and then anointed Kamala Harris without a primary going through the same process again in Maine, essentially choosing a new candidate while bypassing the will and input of Maine voters. Centrist Democrats had months to win this primary. It was their choice to put up the lifeless Mills. The primary is over. It’s time to unite around the nominee.
Against Susan Collins, there are no guarantees. It’s possible that even a young, experienced, energetic, scandal-free candidate could not beat her. Guess what? We’ll never know. To accomplish one of the hardest tasks in American politics, Maine Democrats have nominated a man with little experience and many red flags. Graham Platner can win though. And I think he will.
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