“Dumocrats” is currently US President Trump’s favourite insult for the Democrats, one he is deploying with increasing frequency. The President claims the demeaning new nickname was inspired by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. “He’s a very low IQ person,” mused the President during a recent visit to New York. “I said, ‘He’s such a dumb guy,’ I said, ‘Wait a minute, he’s a Dumocrat.’ That’s how I got the name.”
Hakeem Jeffries aspires to be the next Speaker of the House of Representatives, should Democrats flip the House in November’s midterm elections – in which case, the joke would be on Donald Trump. The “Dumocrats” would exercise oversight of the Trump administration, asking the difficult questions Republicans have shied away from.
While the odds are in favour of Democrats taking the House – and even perhaps the Senate, should all the chips fall their way – Trump’s insults have a way of rattling his opponents. Is it possible that Democrats fail in this favourable political environment, even as Donald Trump’s approval ratings plumb new depths – 35 per cent in the latest Economist poll? Let us count the ways this could happen.
The shadow of the 2024 election and Kamala Harris’s failure to defeat Trump still hangs over the party. Jill Biden’s breezy new memoir has only revived unanswered questions about how on earth she and the team around Joe Biden ever thought he could run for for a second term.
“Oh God,” she writes of watching her husband’s disastrous debate performance, “will people watching assume this is how he is all the time?” Yup. The timing of the memoir has annoyed many Democrats, seeming like a self-indulgent look back to a time many would rather forget, just as the party is trying to look forward to November.
Nervous Democrats wonder if the audacious redistricting effort by Republicans where voting boundaries are redrawn (and in theory has netted the party at least 10 seats in the House of Representatives) will pay dividends in November, enabling the party to keep control of the House.
Anxious Republicans, though, fear the redistricting push could create seats which are easier for Democrats to win, because the Republican vote will be diluted across more constituencies. Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to win the House of Representatives – and in the last 80 years, the president’s party has only gained seats in the House twice in midterm elections. Yet, fret Democrats, Donald Trump is no ordinary President, and he has gone to extraordinary lengths to pressure his party into redrawing congressional maps.
Republicans are also working hard to link Democrats to the national image of New York’s socialist Mayor Zohran Mamdani, and progressive Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, hoping to damage the party’s more traditional centrist candidates. The more left-wing Democratic candidate Adam Hamawy won the primary in New Jersey’s 12th Congressional District this week – Republicans are already targeting the former combat surgeon, focusing on his links to a controversial Egyptian-born cleric.
Yet, in the farm belt of Iowa, where farmers are paying more for gas and fertiliser due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Democrats selected a strong Senate candidate this week – and President Trump’s favoured candidate lost the primary for governor in the “Hawkeye state”, a rare demonstration of independence from Republican voters. The politics of the farm belt could play out in races across Michigan, Iowa and Nebraska, benefiting Democrats as voters express their frustration with the unpopular war in Iran which is driving up prices.
The primaries are still under way – and it’s too soon to see exactly where the battle for the soul of the Democratic Party is ending up. A closely watched Senate primary in Michigan is the most combative fight of the midterms – as Democrats try and hold the Senate seat, there’s a three-way split between a centrist establishment candidate, a Bernie Sanders-backed populist and a state lawmaker who is somewhere in the middle.
The Maine Senate race is giving Democrats major headaches. What looked like a good opportunity to pick up one of the four seats needed for Democrats to win control of the Senate is now on shakier ground.
Populist insurgent Graham Platner, the ex-Marine-turned-Maine-oysterman whose initial polling strength forced the establishment Democrat to drop out of the primary, is facing a scandal after it was reported that he exchanged sexually explicit texts with women other than his wife. Platner called the revelations “gossip from a former staffer” and said they were “untrue”, and according to the Wall Street Journal, told Senate Democrats in a private meeting this week: “It’s not a secret I’ve had a messy, complicated life,” insisting that “the worst of the rumors we’ve all heard are not true”.
Democrats fret that incumbent Republican Maine Senator Susan Collins, who always performs better than her polls, will benefit from the disarray in the Platner campaign. James Talarico, the Democrat’s young progressive Christian Senate candidate in Texas, who will take on the scandal-plagued, Trump-backed Ken Paxton, is seen as competitive in a traditionally red state. Yet there, Republicans are focusing on Talarico’s previous comments about how Jesus is non-binary and there are technically six genders, hoping to distract from Paxton’s issues. Trump is attacking Talarico with gusto, claiming he’s vegan (Talarico eats meat, in fact), weird and an insult to Jesus. You want to know what insults Jesus, Talarico responded – taking health care away from the sick while cutting taxes for billionaires.
Trump’s insults aside – which Democrats are well used to after more than 10 years of the tactic – what’s haunting Democrats this election cycle are the 2022 midterm elections results. Predictions of a red wave were overblown, and Republicans performed less well than expected – winning the House narrowly, while Democrats retained control of the Senate. Joe Biden interpreted the results as a mandate for his presidency – and decided to run again in 2024. The rest is history.
Democrats are hoping that voter frustration with everything from President Trump’s ballroom to the war in Iran will supercharge turnout by Democrats, while unenthusiastic Republicans stay home. But the spectre of the 2022 midterms – and all that flowed from it – hangs over 2026.
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