Votes are still being counted, but after this week’s election Pratt, a former reality show star whose house burned down in the Palisades Fire, appears likely to be headed to face off against Bass in this year’s general mayoral election. (Though the race is still too close to call as votes are being counted). Pratt has put his rage over the fire at the center of his campaign—and with good reason. Frustration remains over the disaster itself and the pace of the recovery.
There is an easy appeal to Pratt’s fire message. It’s been 18 months since the fires and rebuilding efforts remain slow and halting. In one campaign ad, he and his family camp out at the lot where their home once lived; he walks down Bass’s pristine street to draw a contrast.
For the academics who study the aftermath of disasters, Pratt’s rise isn’t exactly surprising. Research has long shown that poorly managed disasters foment distrust in institutions and create fertile ground for anti-establishment politicians.
While this is widely accepted in the academic literature, the implications of this reality remain outside the scope of climate modeling and tabletop exercises. But the potential costs are very real. Political dysfunction risks slowing down rebuilding efforts as critical government functions stall. And it can further disrupt the insurance market as insurers question the resilience of localities. Even beyond disaster response, anti-establishment elected officials can hamstring agencies necessary for business operations.
The irony of Pratt’s critique of my story, I think, is that if he had taken the time to sit with it he might have embraced my criticism of the disaster response and understood that the climate adaptation he dismisses is exactly the kind of work that future mayors need to embrace so this doesn’t happen again.
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