Is Michael Lorenzen the worst pitcher in MLB? There are some numbers to support the case.
When the righty, and former two-way player, signed with the Colorado Rockies it signaled a move toward raising the floor and finally injecting some veteran experience into a roster desperately needing some. Those tasks have arguably been accomplished.
The Rockies have been better. Though, the bar couldn’t have been much lower. And it’s entirely possible that Lorenzen has helped steady the clubhouse with his presence. But, of course, his statistics suggest he has yet to provide tangible positives for his new club.
Currently, Lorenzen leads MLB with 99 hits and 54 runs surrendered. His ERA is 8.01, his ERA+ is 59 and his Baseball Savant page is covered in blue. He ranks in the first percentile in pitching run value and expecting batting average. His K rate, chase rate, and whiff percentage all rank at 16th percentile and under. The notion that he has been the victim entirely of bad luck on weak contact is also undercut by his 22-percentile ranking in average exit velocity.
Lorenzen currently carries a WHIP of 1.995. That is, according to experts, bad.
The only thing he has done well by the numbers is limit the walks. His BB rate places him in the 70th percentile.
There is a peculiar dynamic at work when it comes to his overall WAR, however. Over on Fangraphs, believe it or not, Lorenzen has actually managed a positive 0.3 WAR. This is almost certainly because of his walk rate and the fact that through all the ugliness he has still managed to pick up a decent number of innings.
A similar thing has happened with Kyle Freeland over the last few years. His overall numbers look less than stellar but he has still managed to accrue WAR. And there is something to be said for eating innings. Especially when you’re just wearing it. We will get back to that.
But over at Baseball Reference, the metrics aren’t so kind. His bWAR sits at a -1.6 which is much more in line with the rest of his poor stats. Probably closer to what you’d expect.
Any of this feel familiar?
Yes, if you gutted yourself through the Rockies 2025 campaign this might all feel eerily reminiscent of what we saw from Antonio Senzatela.
Much like you can with Lorenzen this season, you could make the case for most of last season that Senzatela was, in fact, the worst pitcher in Major League Baseball. The only thing that stopped him from leading MLB in multiple negative categories were limitations on his use. Especially late in the season.
It has, of course, long been the case that if you are struggling, the last thing you want as a pitcher is to have to pitch half your games at Coors Field. It absolutely exacerbates everything.
That said, the Rockies and Lorenzen need to be on the path to recovery because there is no easy fix.
Looking again at the statistics, it’s fairly easy to argue that Lorenzen is, in fact, providing positive value for the team. The irony is that the value comes when he is not on the mound. His propensity to gut out the ugly games and pick up a few more innings has helped to preserve the bullpen, allowing the Rockies to be more competitive later in the series or week.
And his place on the roster means that the Rockies don’t need to do what they did a year ago with Chase Dollander, rush the prospects. Sure, it would be a lot more fun for fans and media to call up Gabriel Hughes or Sean Sullivan and start the clock on someone new. Even if they are bad, they likely won’t be much worse than Lorenzen and at least you can dream on their potential, right?
There is some validity in that line of thought. But far too often over the last five years the Rockies have gone the other way, hurting the development of young prospects like Drew Romo, Zac Veen, and Adael Amador by pushing them to the Bigs before they were ready.
As tough as it can be to watch Lorenzen pitch right now, at least when he is getting pummeled you don’t have to be worried how it might impact his career in the long term. He is a big boy who has been doing this a long time. He will figure it out or he won’t. But he can take it. And that allows the Rockies to get more seasoning on the prospects and put them in the best position to succeed.
Oddly enough, the best Michael Lorenzen has pitched this year wasn’t for the Colorado Rockies. It was for team Italy against a monster team USA lineup. He was the hero in that game, going four and two thirds scoreless, earning the win. That seems like so long ago. It’s fair to wonder at age 34 if he still has some of that magic. And if he can find it to help his club for the rest of the season. It’s also fair to wonder if this is the beginning of the end for Lorenzen. He wouldn’t be the first pitcher to arrive in Denver, see his numbers plummet, then call it a career.
Of course, he need only look as far as his own bullpen for inspiration on how to turn it around.
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