If Keir Starmer employed a “Ming vase” strategy of ultra-caution to get into 10 Downing Street, Andy Burnham is peddling a unicycle across a tightrope while juggling gelignite.
The appalling murder and wrongful arrest of Henry Nowak is only the latest gale that threatens to blow Burnham disastrously off course. It seems crass to talk about the politics of this tragedy but Nigel Farage and Reform have made that impossible. As their Makerfield by-election candidate Robert Kenyon flounders, Reform have seen this as an opportunity to turbo-boost their campaign.
In a social media statement on Tuesday, Farage called for the public to respond with “pure, cold rage”, branding it an example of “anti-white prejudice”.
Farage followed up in the Commons saying that it was “clear to growing millions in this country that we’re living under two-tier policing”, saying this led to what he called “the anger that you saw spilling out in Southampton last night”.
Reform’s divisive rhetoric has been condemned not just by the Prime Minister and Kemi Badenoch. Even Rupert Lowe of Restore branded Reform’s attack adverts targeting the Tory leader as “misguided, ugly and offensive”.
How to respond to this appalling case is a huge challenge for would-be PM Andy Burnham.
The task for any responsible leader – or would-be leader – is to meet the moment, acknowledge the enormity of the tragedy and reflect the genuine, entirely justified public anger while not pouring petrol on the flames of community tensions.
As Burnham weighs his response, he faces the most complex political calculations of all – and the most immediate consequences.
Burnham is locked in a by-election battle with Reform in a seat where national polls suggest the odds on victory are heavily stacked against Labour. He needs to appeal to voters of all political persuasions in Makerfield and show that he takes their concerns seriously.Yet, he also needs to consider the politics of the Parliamentary Labour Party as he seeks MPs support to put him into No 10, plus the small matter of the message he is sending to the rest of the country. Plummeting poll ratings turned MPs against Starmer and could do the same to Burnham if he doesn’t turn things around.
There are legitimate questions about contentious police guidance which has come to light in the wake of Henry Nowak’s murder, and how anti-racist practices have been implemented. But this is a hugely sensitive issue for many Labour MPs because such guidance has been produced to address decades of injustice towards minority communities which many of them represent.
Andy Burnham’s USP has so far been an ability to unite the Parliamentary Labour Party. MPs on the left who did not want Wes Streeting could support him, along with people on the right who did not want Angela Rayner.
A coronation without a messy leadership contest seemed highly likely, with Burnham in Downing Street by the summer Parliamentary recess. There are already signs that this wide, but sometimes shallow, coalition is fraying as the Mayor of Manchester is forced to set out political positions.
Leading members of the Socialist Campaign Group such as John McDonnell warned against rushing a leadership contest, in what was seen as a tacit endorsement of Burnham, allowing him time to gain a seat to compete. More recently, however, there have been signs that the hard left of the party could try to run against Burnham after he backed Shabana Mahmood’s migration reforms.
And reports have resurfaced that Darren Jones, Chief Secretary to the PM and Starmer loyalist, could seek to come through the middle as the centrist candidate in a contest between Burnham and Streeting. Jones is a hard-working “message monster” – one of the Government’s strongest media performers – but many MPs regard the prospect of him in the top job as fanciful.
After Starmer succeeded Jeremy Corbyn, party rules were redrafted in an attempt to prevent the left ever recapturing Labour. Yet, the danger for Burnham remains that every time he sets out policy positions, such as respecting Labour’s election manifesto red lines on taxes and Europe, he loses support in the Labour Party.
Roy Jenkins was the first to refer to the “Ming vase” strategy as he described Tony Blair advancing cautiously across a “highly polished floor” in 1997. As Burnham seeks to balance the demands of difficult by-election, PLP politics and speaking to the nation, Blair’s task must look like a walk in the park.
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