The College Football Playoff will be here before we know it. And then…
Well, and then it’ll drag on for over a month. The CFP announced this week that the first round would kick off on Dec. 18/19, with quarterfinal games on Dec. 30 and Jan. 1. Semifinals are scheduled for Jan. 14/15 and the championship game is set for Jan. 25 in Las Vegas.
Yep.
December 18 to January 25. No wonder coaches and fans complain about the calendar so much. This is pretty ridiculous:
NEWS: The CFP, ESPN and TNT Sports have announced dates, kick times and broadcast information for the 2026-27 edition of the College Football Playoff. Read more at t.co/woIFWrQKbE#CFP pic.twitter.com/R8a2cQWYcZ
— CFP (@CFBPlayoff) June 1, 2026The games, of course, will be stellar. It just seems like there’s too much time between each round. But that’s a problem for another day.
For now, we here at Saturday Down South are projecting the 12-team Playoff field for 2026.
Here’s a quick refresher about the College Football Playoff format this year:
Automatic bids will be given to the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC champions Notre Dame gets an auto-bid if it finishes in the top 12 of the final CFP rankings The top Group of 6 champion also gets an auto-bid The 4 highest-ranked teams in the last CFP rankings get the first-round byes, regardless of if they win their conference championships or notAnd here’s a look back at the teams we’ve predicted will make the Playoff thus far during our series:
No. 12 — Boise State No. 11 — Michigan No. 10 — Alabama No. 9 — LSU No. 8 — IndianaNow let’s take a look at our No. 7 seed… the big-spending Texas Tech Red Raiders.
The Playoff Path
The path is simple… it’s the schedule.
We’ll discuss the Brendan Sorsby situation in the next section (spoiler alert), but even with him suspended (pending an appeal), the Red Raiders could potentially sleepwalk to the Big 12 title and an automatic berth.
Respectfully, the Big 12 schedule is far from the gauntlet SEC and even some Big Ten teams face. Week 3 vs. Houston, Week 7 vs. Arizona State and Week 13 vs. TCU qualify as the Red Raiders’ “toughest” games. Not exactly the 1927 Yankees’ lineup there.
Texas Tech’s road games are at Oregon State, Colorado, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State and Baylor. Out of all of those teams, I’d probably say that Oklahoma State is the trickiest matchup after a regime change this offseason. Again, that shouldn’t be too taxing.
You’ll also notice that Texas Tech avoids the state of Utah entirely, with Utah and BYU both absent from the schedule this year.
With guys like RBs Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams, WR Coy Eakin, TE Terrance Carter Jr., and an experienced offensive line coming back to help out whoever the QB ends up being, this unit is going to be loaded.
Yes, it’ll be hard to replace Jacob Rodriguez and David Bailey on defense, but Ben Roberts (90 tackles, 4 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles), AJ Holmes (4.5 sacks) and Brice Pollock (5 interceptions) are back to make sure the Red Raiders still have playmakers on both sides of the ball.
And, as the Red Raiders have shown the propensity to do in recent years, they spent freely in the portal on some strong reinforcements. Credit to them for continuing to invest in the roster they put on the field.
This roster has the most talent of any Big 12 team, by far, and has a manageable schedule. Anything less than a Playoff berth should be seen as a major disappointment.
Now let’s move on to the elephant in the room…
The Possible Roadblock
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you’ve heard about Cincinnati transfer QB Brendan Sorsby and his suspension for sports gambling. That’s obviously a big blow for the Red Raiders, who spent a lot of money to get him to Lubbock and were counting on him to be a potential Heisman contender.
Having that absence at the most-important position in the sport is concerning, but there’s another wrinkle to the QB situation at Texas Tech.
Last year, the Red Raiders also had to deal with injuries at the QB position featuring Behren Morton, who ended up missing a couple of games (including the Red Raiders’ only regular-season loss at Arizona State). Backup Will Hammond proved capable, but then he went down with a torn ACL in late-October.
Hammond is still on the roster, and if he can return from injury for the start of the season, Tech will be in good shape. If he can’t, though, redshirt freshman Lloyd Jones III or Tulsa transfer Kirk Francis will have to step in. That would be less than ideal, especially with a tricky game against Houston in Week 3.
Houston could be a sneaky Playoff contender if Tech falters, so make sure to circle that early test on the calendar. If Hammond is back by then, though, I don’t see any reason why the Red Raiders couldn’t beat the Cougars in Lubbock.
It all comes down to QB health for Texas Tech, which is something it hasn’t had much luck with lately.
Odds to Make the Playoff
Even with the Sorsby situation in flux and the injury to Hammond, the folks at Kalshi are still high on Texas Tech, giving the Red Raiders a 69% chance to make the CFP field.
Here’s a look at the latest market:
Prediction Markets College Football Playoff Qualifiers 2026 Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi Notre Dame 77% Oregon 76% Georgia 74% Miami (FL) 72% Texas Tech 69% Ohio St. 68% Indiana 67% Texas 61% LSU 36% Ole Miss 36% PredictCheck out our breakdown of the best prediction markets available ahead of the 2026 football season.
Tomorrow, we’ll be back with the No. 6 team in our projections… a perennial contender from the SEC.
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Predicting the 2026 Playoff: No. 7 Texas Tech Saturday Down South.
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