Things have been particularly tough over the last month for the Colorado Rockies. They’ve dropped 14 of its last 20 contests, eight of their last ten, and are currently riding a five-game slide that keeps them firmly seated in Major League Baseball’s basement once again. On the bright side, they’ll have a chance to climb out of it in their weekend series with the struggling San Francisco Giants, with Friday’s first pitch set for 6:40 p.m. MT at Coors Field.
The Giants aren’t exactly rolling either. At 22-34, San Francisco holds the National League’s second-worst record, only slightly better than Colorado’s 20-37. Like the Rockies, they have been struggling mightily over their last stretch of games, losing seven of their last ten and dropping 12 of their last 20. Neither side has found much rhythm lately, menaing that this series presents a clear opportunity for one of these clubs to find their footing and get back on track.
For the Rockies to compete tonight, they need to play clean baseball and capitalize on a vulnerable opponent. The challenge is finding the consistency that has been completely absent during this recent slide – but this time, they’re facing a team in the exact same boat.
The Breakdown
The pitching matchup tonight features Michael Lorenzen taking the mound for Colorado, opposite Logan Webb for San Francisco. Lorenzen has had a tough go of it so far this year. Across his 46.1 innings of work this season, he has posted a 6.02 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP, consistently struggling to keep runners off the basepaths. Free passes and hard contact have been a recurring theme. On the other side, Webb brings a solid 7.88 strikeouts per nine innings to the table, showcasing his ability to miss bats. However, Webb hasn’t been bulletproof. Over his 48.0 innings this season, he carries a 5.06 ERA alongside a 1.40 WHIP. This game could quickly tilt toward a high-scoring affair if either starter falters early in the altitude.
The X-factor in this matchup will be which lineup can actually take advantage of any pitching weaknesses. Over their last 10 games, the Giants have been significantly more productive at the plate, averaging 4.90 runs per game with a robust .763 OPS. The Rockies, meanwhile, have been sputtering offensively during that same 10-game window, putting up just 3.00 runs per contest and a sluggish .556 OPS. If Colorado wants to keep pace, their bats have to wake up and exploit Webb’s tendency to allow traffic on the bases.
For the Rockies to pull out a win tonight, it starts with Lorenzen setting a functional tone on the mound. He needs to limit the walks and command the strike zone enough to neutralize a Giants lineup that has been producing well. Pitching alone won’t be enough, however. The Rockies’ lineup must provide run support, stringing together quality at-bats and attacking any mistakes Webb leaves out over the plate.
Odds & Lines
Moneyline: San Francisco Giants (-154) / Colorado Rockies (+125) Run Line: San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+100) / Colorado Rockies +1.5 (-120) Over/Under: 10.5 (Over -118 / Under -102)Our Pick
Tonight’s matchup at Coors Field has all the makings of a high-scoring affair, but the Giants hold a clear advantage when the game shifts to the later innings. Both Michael Lorenzen and Logan Webb have shown vulnerabilities this season, meaning this contest will likely be decided by the relief staffs. That’s bad news for the Rockies.
Colorado’s lugging around a 4.53 bullpen ERA, routinely struggling to shut the door on opponents when games get tight. On the flip side, San Francisco’s relievers have been much more reliable, boasting a solid 3.35 ERA out of the pen. Colorado’s recent five-game slide indicates that their sputtering offense isn’t equipped to bail out a leaky relief corps.
While laying some juice on a struggling road team isn’t always comfortable, San Francisco’s bullpen advantage makes them the smarter investment in a hitter-friendly environment. DraftKings is currently offering the Giants on the moneyline at -154, and we are backing them to outlast the Rockies tonight.
Pick: San Francisco Giants ML (-154)
Player Prop Pick
With Logan Webb on the mound for San Francisco, there should be plenty of balls put in play tonight. Webb has allowed a generous 9.75 hits per nine innings this season, making the Total Bases market a prime spot to back a hitter who has been swinging a hot bat.
We evaluated a few different candidate profiles for this matchup, including TJ Rumfield and Troy Johnston, but Willi Castro offers the cleanest edge. Over his last stretch of games, Castro is hitting a robust .357 with a .464 slugging percentage. He has been averaging over a hit per contest during this window, consistently finding the barrel and picking up extra bases.
Given Webb’s tendency to allow traffic on the basepaths, Castro should see plenty of hittable pitches to work with in a friendly environment like Coors Field. DraftKings has his total bases line set at a reasonable number, and we are backing him to deliver an active night at the plate.
Pick: Willi Castro Over 1.5 Total Bases
For more Rockies news and daily analysis, be sure to stay locked in with Mile High Sports.
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Sportradar Content Studio contributed to this story.
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants: Game preview, picks and props for Friday Mile High Sports.
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