Here’s the good news, my friends: Alex Bregman is riding an eight-game hitting streak, including two doubles. And with that, plus his very solid walk and strikeout numbers, his overall season slash line is finally above the league average, albeit just barely (102 wRC+).
Sure, his .260 BA and .340 OBP are a little below his career marks, but they’re more or less perfectly acceptable in the modern era, where the average batting AVG is .240, and the average OBP is .318.
The bad news is that he’s got next to no SLG at the moment, sitting at a below-average .357. His expected SLG is actually a good bit higher (.397), but that’s still well below his career averages, even after his early-career MVP-caliber peaks.
So the question then becomes why?
Where Is Alex Bregman’s Power?
Well, one seemingly obvious explanation is the batted ball quality. This season, Bregman’s average exit velocity (88.7 MPH), barrel rate (5.4%), and hard-hit rate (41.8%) don’t inspire a whole lot of confidence.
But here’s the thing: those numbers are not too much different than his career marks:
Exit velo Barrel % Hard-hit % 2026 (CHC) 88.7 Career avg 88.9 vs career −0.2 Bregman batted-ball metric by season, 2016 to 2026, compared to career average.Obviously not quite as good, but that’s not so far below the career numbers that you’d expect such a precipitous fall otherwise. So what else?
For one, his groundball rate is up, and we know that. For his career, Bregman has hit grounders at a 35.7% rate, but this season he’s up to 41.8%. But there’s actually some good news there. As the season has gone on, Bregman’s groundball rate has been falling while his line drive rate is climbing.
As a matter of fact, Bregman’s current 22.8% line drive rate is the highest of his career, excluding the 49 games he played in his rookie season. So that’s a good sign.
Still, something is missing here. Because even cherry-picking his best recent stretch (73 PAs since May 12), which features a ridiculous 30.9% line drive rate (hello), the SLG remains down, right alongside the average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
So, again, why are those numbers down? That may have to do with his swing speed – the key thing to understand about Alex Bregman’s 2026 season.
Unfortunately, we have just three years of bat speed data to go off, but as you’ll see here below, his average bat speed is down a little bit, while his fast-swing rate (the percentage of swings which exceeded 75 MPH) has been decimated.
Bregman League avg Average bat speed (mph) Bregman bat speed by season versus league average. Fast-swing rate (% of swings 75+ mph) Bregman fast-swing rate by season versus league average.His swing length hasn't changed, and his squared-up contact, blast contact, etc. are all more or less fine. But the bat speed - particularly the frequency with which he's delivering that "A" swing - has declined DRAMATICALLY. And that would definitely explain lower exit velocities and even lower barrel rates, even though the line drives are creeping up.
Is that because he's getting older? Maybe. Could he be dealing with something minor/nagging? Maybe. Could it just be an early-season fluke? Also possible.
But any argument that it'll pick up naturally as the year goes on/weather warms up doesn't exactly track. Here are those same stats by season, but through May 29 only:
2024: 70.7 MPH, 9.3 fast-swing%2025: 71.4 MPH, 10.3 fast-swing%2026: 69.6 MPH, 3.4 fast-swing%
And unfortunately (or maybe fortunately, I honestly don't know how I want to take this yet), it's not explainable by poor plate discipline. Bregman is offering at fewer pitches in the zone, but not a TON less. His o-swing rate is also up a smidge, but mostly fine. And he's even getting ahead in the count much more often (best first-pitch strike rate since 2022).
So that brings me back to physical ability. Something physical is preventing him from swinging as hard overall. And that (plus something else perhaps more game-related) is reducing the total number of fast swings. And right there, you've got a recipe for less SLG.
But here's another thing: Alex Bregman only JUST turned 32 years old. Sometimes, it feels like he's older because of the free agent contract and constant references to his leadership, but he's not that old. In other words, there's not a simple, default reason to assume his bat speed should have just fallen off a cliff like this. So maybe there is something small that can help get his bat speed back up. And maybe, when that happens, all the other things that are going well for him (no strikeouts, lots of walks, good swing decisions, more line drives) will compound a bit.
It's a lot of IF and HOPE, but that's where we are. In the meantime, at least he's getting hits and getting on base. We just need some power to come back.
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