Just 15 months ago, in the Oval Office, Trump shouted at Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky: “You’re not in a good position. You don’t have the cards right now. With us, you start having cards.”
Read more: Zelensky Hails Ukraine's Growing Drone Capability After Massive Moscow Strike
Some question whether this is a sustainable advantage as Russia plays catch-up, but we are told by senior Biden and Trump Administration sources that Ukrainian drone and anti-drone defense technology are heavily reliant in part on unparalleled U.S. technology, which Russia does not have access to, such as Motorola’s Silvus infrastructure-less solutions, which are utilized by Ukraine to operate its drones. All of which suggests that Ukraine’s technology, innovation, and cost advantages are durable. In fact, it has been reported that the U.S. has directed billions of dollars in direct investments into Ukraine’s drone industry across both the Biden and Trump years.
Second, Ukrainian drone strikes are severing crucial logistics chains within Russian-occupied territory, while preserving Ukrainian lives and precious military personnel, with technology enabling Ukrainian counterattacks to liberate those regions. Ukraine recently liberated over 400 square kilometers in the southern theater and recaptured significant sectors near Kupyansk, with independent military assessments reporting that Russia is suffering a net loss of occupied territory for the first time since 2024, simultaneously imposing catastrophic human costs on the invading forces. Total Russian casualties have now eclipsed 1.35 million personnel since the start of the war, according to Ukraine’s count, with Moscow losing upwards of 1,000 soldiers daily and, in the first five months of 2026 alone, sustaining over 141,000 casualties.
As Jake Sullivan, former National Security Advisor to President Biden, told us, “Something is clearly happening with respect to the Russian authorities and security services. They’re feeling the pressure, which is leading them to crack down on the internet and popular messaging apps”. Another glaring manifestation of the Kremlin’s increasing paranoia occurred during the May 9, 2026, Victory Day parade in Moscow. Historically utilized by Putin to project unassailable military might through massive displays of heavy weaponry, yet, for the first time in nearly two decades, the quintessential procession of tanks, ballistic missiles, and heavy armor was conspicuously absent from Red Square, replaced by mere videos of that military equipment—a move widely attributed to fears of Ukrainian drone strikes targeting the military hardware. Some intelligence reports even report that Putin and his inner circle have been forced to take heightened security precautions from the threat of Ukrainian drone strikes.
Russia’s projection of strength has been diminished
Like a mercantile colony, all Putin has is a lot of land, raw materials, and psychopathic propaganda. The economic reality is that, despite Putin’s tough guy bluster and despite higher oil and gas prices as well as the unwise relaxation of energy sanctions on Russia, Putin’s house of cards is still more vulnerable than many realize.
Even Putin’s much-ballyhooed summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing last week failed to result in much substantive economic or diplomatic deals despite some cosmetic rhetorical wordplay, with no breakthrough on Putin’s highly desired Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, and with Putin having to fall back on empty nuclear bluster.
The rise of the middle powers
Ukraine’s strengthening alliances are a reminder that it has not merely survived the retraction of U.S. support; it has seized the strategic initiative, unleashed to strike deep inside Russia, exposing the fragility of Putin’s house of cards as Moscow bleeds troops, loses ground, and struggles to project even the illusion of strength to its wary allies. It also lends credence to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s admonition that there is an emerging third polarity, with the European Union, United Kingdom and Canada standing strong with Ukrainian ingenuity as Trump’s priorities shift elsewhere.
As retired Lieutenant Gen. and former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Doug Lute told us, “The U.S., especially under Trump but to some extent under Biden as well, has pushed David into the fight against Goliath with one hand tied behind his back and contributed to the fact that David has had to continue the unfair fight for over four years.”
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