Heat health warnings are in place across all of England, as forecasts of a record-breaking bank holiday heatwave pose a threat to life, particularly among the elderly and unwell.
Highs of 33°C are forecast in southern England and the Midlands over the long weekend, with the Met Office expecting May and spring temperature records to be broken.
Friday is the hottest day of the year so far as temperatures reached 26.9°C in Heathrow, west London, in the early afternoon, the Met Office said.
The “extraordinary” warnings include upgraded amber alerts covering the middle and south-east of England, and are in effect from 2pm on Friday, 22 May to 5pm on Wednesday, 27 May.
Health warnings across England
This is the first time the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has issued heat health warnings before June.
The UKHSA has issued amber alerts for the East Midlands, West Midlands, east of England and London and the south-east (Photo: UKHSA)The UKHSA has issued amber alerts for the East Midlands, West Midlands, east of England, London and the south-east – upgraded from yellow alerts on Friday morning. At the same time, UKHSA introduced yellow warnings in the north-east, north-west, Yorkshire and the Humber and south-west.
Yellow alerts mean an increase in demand on health services is likely, alongside a likely rise in deaths among over-65s and those with health conditions. Temperatures in hospitals and care homes may go above recommended limits and workers may be impacted.
An amber alert means that, in addition to this, demand for power may exceed capacity, possible travel delays and a greater burden on health services.
The UKHSA alerts, which cover England only, are based on an assessment of how average temperatures will affect a region’s health services and are reviewed on a rolling basis.
There are no extreme warnings in place in Scotland. Public Health Wales has warned that waters can remain extremely cold at this time of year despite heatwaves, bringing risks of cold water shock.
“Temperatures will climb through the weekend, especially in the south,” said Steve Kocher, deputy chief forecaster at the Met Office.
“As well as it being hot, there will be lots of dry and sunny weather for much of the UK. There will, however, be more cloud and some showers in Northern Ireland and western Scotland through the weekend.”
Temperatures in the UK have not reached 30°C in May since 2012, and health authorities only typically issue heat health alerts from 1 June onwards.
Temperatures are set to hit their highest levels on Monday, but in some areas, peaks may stretch into the start of the working week.
“We know that even moderate heat can lead to serious health problems, especially for older people and those with certain health conditions, so it’s important that everyone takes simple precautions while enjoying the warm weather over the coming days,” said Dr Anya Gopfert, consultant in health protection at UKHSA.
Climate change could make droughts more complicated
While unseasonal May heat will place stress on health services, there are currently no fears of upcoming water shortages, such as those seen in 2025. A wet winter means reservoirs have refilled and the Environment Agency currently considers no part of England to be in drought.
“We are not anywhere near major concerns,” said Jamie Hannaford, principal hydrologist at the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology. Despite a dry April, which saw England experience around a third of its usual rainfall, “it’s nothing like it was last year,” Hannaford added.
The changing climate, however, makes droughts more complicated. Rainfall is harder to predict; heavier deluges of rain don’t trickle down to groundwater in the same way as more spread-out bursts, and hot weather can evaporate water from reservoirs.
Areas more dependent on reservoirs and river levels for their drinking water are more at risk of shortages during hot weather, said Dr Jess Neumann, associate professor of hydrology at the University of Reading.
“If we continue to have a summer like last year with repeated heatwaves and dry weather events, then we might start to see some restrictions put in place in those places,” she said.
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