Labour leadership hopeful Andy Burnham has been warned that he is up against “powerful and irrational” ideas on immigration that could block his path to No 10.
Many people falsely believe that net migration is rising, despite the numbers, dropping to their lowest level in many years.
Polling has revealed a “massive perception gap” on immigration trends, a blind spot with voters which could prove a barrier for Burnham in the Makerfield by-election, where Labour faces a battle with Reform UK.
Burnham has a tightrope to walk on the “toxic” subject in the red wall seat outside of Manchester – his route back to Westminster in his bid to replace Keir Starmer.
Some on Labour’s left want Burnham to soften Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s controversial reforms on asylum and settlement.
But others say doing so would open him up to further attacks by Reform UK, with Nigel Farage’s party already dubbing him “open borders Andy”.
Voters’ immigration perceptions are wrong
The latest statistics revealed that net migration fell almost 50 per cent to 171,000 in the year to December 2025 – down from a peak of 944,000 in the year to March 2023.
Falling for the second successive year, net migration is now at its lowest level since 2012, excluding the Covid period.
However, a major disconnect in public perception was revealed by the latest British Future’s Immigration Attitudes Tracker, also released on Thursday.
Only 16 per cent of people think net migration fell in the past year, while 49 per cent believe it increased. Two-thirds (67 per cent) of voters with sceptical views on immigration believe net migration is rising.
Andy Burnham is expected to run against Starmer if he wins the Makerfield by-election (Photo: AP/Jon Super)Jon Tonge, professor of politics at the University of Liverpool, said Burnham was facing “irrational, powerful ideas on immigration” which had pushed many toward Reform.
“Some people won’t trust or listen to the statistics,” said Prof Tonge. “Many people have already made up their mind that it’s been too high and it’s stretched services.
“Reform supporters feel immigrants are being favoured over them, even though there’s no evidence of that in the [Makerfield] constituency,” he added. “Reform will still point to small boat crossings continuing.”
Burnham warned against trying to ‘out-Reform’ Reform
There were just over 39,000 small boat arrivals in the year to March – a 3 per cent increase on the previous year, the latest Home Office figures show.
Labour can point to some success on asylum hotels, the major flashpoint for anti-migrant protests. The number of asylum seekers living in hotels has fallen by a third to just under 21,000, according to the latest stats.
But the overall number in Government-provided housing fell only slightly to 94,000, with many asylum seekers moved to houses of multiple occupation (HMOs), former student blocks and ex-military sites.
Nigel Farage has vowed to ‘throw the kitchen sink’ at winning in Makerfield (Photo: Steve Morgan for The i Paper)The outcome in Makerfield could depend on whether Burnham can dilute these “toxic” issues and shift the conversation onto other things, said Prof Tonge – calling the by-election too close to call.
Burnham will have to back Mahmood’s measures, at least for now, to avoid too many headlines on immigration, said the political expert.
“It would be a mistake to suggest he will water down the toughening of immigration policy, but it would also be a mistake to try to out-Reform Reform,” he added.
“The last thing he wants is to get bogged down on immigration – he will want to shift the conversation to the economic growth he’s achieved in Manchester, bringing more back into public control. It will be very difficult. It will have to be the perfect campaign.”
Burnham has tricky ‘tightrope’ to walk on immigration
Luke Tryl, UK director of the More in Common research agency, agrees that immigration will be “tricky” for Burnham as he tries to win over traditional Labour voters sympathetic to Reform.
“I think promising to water down [Mahmood’s policies] would go down quite badly in a red wall seat like that,” Tryl told The i Paper.
“It’s a tightrope,” the polling expert added, saying Burnham cannot avoid the awkward subject. “You have to reduce the salience of the issue – but the only way to do that is if voters think you have an answer to it.”
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood plans a package of asylum and settlement reforms (Photo: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)Burnham is backing Mahmood’s controversial reforms, according to reports. The Home Secretary plans to scrap permanent refugee status and extend the time it takes to get full settlement in the UK.
The Labour left is unhappy about a proposal to remove asylum-seeking families with children if they refuse return. They also dislike plans to remove those with refugee status if their home country is deemed safe again.
More than 100 Labour MPs, peers and union leaders oppose the measures – with some warning of a Windrush-type scandal and others comparing removal threats to Donald Trump’s tactics.
Burnham told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme in November that Mahmood was right to want “root and branch reform”. But he also said he was concerned about “leaving people without the ability to settle”.
Pressure on Burnham from both left and right
One Labour MP on the left told The i Paper that Burnham would be “seriously misguided” to stick by Mahmood’s plans – saying there was a chance to soften the more draconian parts of the reforms.
However, red wall Labour MP Luke Akehurst – a strong Starmer supporter – urged Burnham not to change course when the party now has a clear message that net migration was coming down.
“If reports that Andy Burnham supports Shabana Mahmood’s immigration reforms are true, that will be a huge help to him beating Reform,” said the MP for North Durnham.
Labour MP Clive Lewis, a Burnham supporter, said there was too much “armchair quarterbacking” on how to defeat Reform in Makerfield. “Maybe the best thing is to let him and his team get on with it.”
Opportunity for Labour to attack Farage
Starmer said the fall in net migration showed that Labour was “delivering” on its promise to bring control to Britain’s borders. But there is scepticism about whether he will get any credit with voters.
Prof Tonge said it may take at least another year or two of consistent, downward immigration trends for the issue to become less of a drag on Labour’s vote.
Sunder Katwala, director of the British Future think tank, said its own polling showed there was a “massive perception gap” around immigration.
But he said people “do update their perceptions” – arguing that Burnham and other Labour politicians shouldn’t shy away from talking about the subject.
Jonathan Portes, a professor of economics at King’s College London, said there was an opportunity for Burnham and others in Labour to change the conversation.
“It’s worth Labour saying, ‘Nigel Farage has been lying to you – immigration levels have not been going up and up’.
“Tony Blair, for all his faults, was able to make a clear argument about the benefits of immigration combined with the need for control. It meant immigration was not a losing issue.”
Burham’s campaign, Reform and the Home Office were contacted for comment.
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