Yes, it’s only May, but we have a little more than 3 months left of the college football offseason left to endure. Spring practices are over. Fall camps have yet to start.
It’s officially “Talkin’ Season.”
And what better subject to talk about than the 12-team College Football Playoff? This year’s field will indeed be 12 teams. Will future tournaments feature 16, 18 or even 24 teams? That’s what’s currently being discussed among the sport’s power brokers.
But we do know that this year’s field will be 12 deserving squads.
So over the next couple of weeks, let’s see if we can predict which 12 teams will make the field. We’ll start today with the No. 12 seed out of the Group of 6.
Here’s a reminder about the Playoff format this year:
Automatic bids for the SEC, Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 champions Notre Dame gets an auto-bid if it finishes in the top 12 of the final CFP rankings Top Group of 6 champion gets an auto-bid The 4 highest-ranked teams in the final CFP rankings get first-round byes, regardless of if they won their conference championships or notOK, that’s all settled. Now, let’s dive in with my projected 12-seed — Boise State.
The Playoff Path
The Pac-12 is alive and… well, it’s alive. Let’s just leave it there.
There are 8 teams in the league this year, including the Boise State Broncos. The rest of the teams are:
Utah State Fresno State Washington State Texas State Colorado State Oregon State San Diego StateYeah, that’s a lot of “State”s. And Boise is the best of them all (even though it, of course, is not actually a state). Because there are only 7 other teams in the conference, each team has to play 1 opponent twice.
This year, the Broncos get a lucky draw, as they face Utah State in a home-and-home. Boise State has the Pac-12’s (and the Group of 6’s) best SP+ rating, checking in at No. 39. Utah State is down at No. 97, second-worst in the Pac-12 to Colorado State (No. 99).
There’s a lot to like with this Boise State team. It returns head coach Spencer Danielson, QB Maddux Madsen, top RBs Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines, some quality pass catchers and a defense that should start several fourth- and fifth-year players.
There are more question marks on defense than on offense, but the Broncos should be better than most Pac-12 squads on both sides of the ball. Riley and Gaines, in particular, form a backfield tandem that even some Power 4 programs would kill for. Madsen has played a lot of football and won’t be intimidated by anything thrown his way.
The Possible Roadblock
Perhaps the Broncos’ biggest competition for the non-Power 4 Playoff slot is UNLV. If not UNLV, it might be James Madison. The Dukes don’t play a single Power 4 opponent this year. UNLV hosts ACC school Cal.
Boise State starts the season with a road trip to Autzen Stadium to face Oregon. That’s tough for any program, let alone a non-Power 4 squad.
The Broncos should get credit with the CFP committee simply for showing up to that game, especially with the abysmal schedules UNLV and James Madison have lined up.
There’s also an argument to be made that the Broncos actually catch Oregon at a good time, as Dan Lanning is replacing both coordinators after losing Will Stein to the Kentucky Wildcats and Tosh Lupoi to the Cal Golden Bears.
So what’s the roadblock? If and when Boise State does lose at Oregon, will it need to be perfect the rest of the way? Would a second loss doom the Broncos?
It’s certainly possible, especially if UNLV runs the table and looks great.
One other game to circle on Boise State’s schedule — at Fresno State on Oct. 10. The Bulldogs smoked the Broncos in Boise last year, 30-7.
The Bulldogs return their own fearsome backfield tandem in Rayshon Luke and Bryson Donelson, along with CB Simeon Harris who snagged a Mountain West-leading 5 interceptions last year. But Fresno State has to replace QB EJ Warner, leading tackler Jadon Pearson, leading pass rusher Finn Claypool and others.
Boise State should be favored in that game, but Matt Entz’s squad won’t be intimidated.
Odds to Make the Playoff
Per Kalshi, the Broncos have a 53% chance to win this year’s Pac-12 championship. Would that be enough to make it to the Playoff?
Considering top competition like James Madison and UNLV play in inferior conferences and are starting below the Broncos in the SP+ rankings, I say yes.
Prediction Markets Who will win the 2026 Pac-12 football title? Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi Fresno St. 99% Boise St. 53% Utah St. 40% San Diego St. 38% Washington St. 31% Texas St. 29% Colorado St. 0% Oregon St. 0% PredictThe Broncos don’t yet have odds to make the Playoff, but that’ll be something to keep an eye on at Kalshi as the regular season gets closer.
Having Boise State at only 53% to win the Pac-12 is pretty low. The Broncos will be favored in every conference matchup, and probably several times by double-figures. Can they handle that pressure?
Predicting the 2026 Playoff will continue on Friday with the No. 11 seed out of the Big Ten.
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