Trump’s Monday announcement on Truth Social came a day after he warned Iran to “get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them.” The President said the leaders of several Gulf countries had requested that he “hold off on our planned Military attack” because “serious negotiations are now taking place” and “a Deal will be made.”
Trump’s reversal may feel familiar. The President has on multiple occasions since the U.S. and Israel launched the war against Iran on Feb. 28 suggested that the war is nearing its end while also threatening further attacks on Iran. The U.S.-Iran cease-fire, which took effect on April 8, appeared to be on shaky ground in recent days, after Trump rejected the Iranians’ counter to a U.S. proposal for a framework agreement for a longer-lasting peace.
Tensions have mounted in recent weeks as the U.S., which began blockading Iranian ports on April 13, has sought to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of the Strait to most shipping has led to surging energy prices around the world and disruptions to other commodities, and soaring inflation has made the war growingly unpopular with Americans.
The two countries traded attacks in the Strait two weeks ago after Trump announced, and then paused a day later, a U.S. mission to “guide” ships out of the Strait. Hostilities have continued: the U.S. carried out strikes on Iranian military facilities after Iran attacked U.S. warships in the Strait, while the United Arab Emirates reported suspected Iranian strikes. And Iran has in recent days suggested that it might next seek to impose control over the subsea cables running through its waters, which provide internet and transmit data to a number of countries in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa.Even so, it would seem appetite for direct military engagement is low among Trump officials, as the U.S. has insisted that the cease-fire is on, even if Trump has said it is on “life support.” Trump’s decision to call off strikes on Monday suggests that, for all his threats, he is still hopeful of a deal that would avoid resuming the war.
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