Nicolas Vaiman, the CEO of data analytics firm Bubblemaps, told CBS’s 60 Minutes Sunday that across more than 80 bets, a series of nine anonymous accounts had a 98 percent win rate placing bets on pivotal moments of the joint U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran.
“We spotted nine Polymarket accounts, all connected, who made, collectively,$2.4 million betting almost exclusively on U.S. military operations,” says Nicolas Vaiman, co-founder of the small data analytics firm Bubblemaps.“And now here's the crazy part: 98% win rate.”… pic.twitter.com/YQmRSn30UW
— 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) May 17, 2026“Deebs,” Bubblemap’s head of investigations, who is a former U.S. military officer, told 60 Minutes that military markets are particularly ripe for rigging, as there are many individuals involved in organizing a military operation.
David Kovel, a former commodities trader-turned-lawyer representing victims of fraud, pointed to March 23 as a prime example of suspicious trading. That day, just 15 minutes before Trump posted claiming the White House and Iran had “very good and productive” conversations about ending fighting, more than $800 million was staked on the odds that oil prices would drop. Trump’s post sent oil prices plummeting more than 10 percent.
Federal investigators are reportedly probing the oil market trades, but Trump himself doesn’t seem too concerned about reports of insider trading. Instead, he lamented last month that “the whole world has become somewhat of a casino” while quietly planning to launch his own prediction market.
The report pointed to the U.S. military’s surprise strike on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025.
“Across day-specific markets that resolved ‘Yes’ after the strike, 19 longshot bets totalling $164,292 were placed in the hours immediately before the operation,” the report said. “Eight wallets walked away with $1.8 million in combined profit—one earning nearly $500,000—despite the strike relying on deception, decoy bombers, and stealth aircraft that left no public signal of timing.”
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