Tighten your seat belt, the NBA conference finals offer a wild ride. The Knicks vs. Cavaliers and Thunder vs. Spurs are intriguing head-to-head matchups in an already strong postseason.
And then there were four: After a month of some of the best NBA playoff basketball in recent memory, the 16-team field has been whittled down to the conference finals: the Cleveland Cavaliers vs. New York Knicks in the East and the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. the San Antonio Spurs in the West.
In a way, it was always supposed to come down to these showdowns.
The Cavaliers were considered the top team in the Eastern Conference entering the regular season, and with the Boston Celtics facing four-fifths of the campaign without Jayson Tatum (and eventually flaming out against the Philadelphia 76ers in the playoff first round), a more-intact Knicks’ squad getting back to the final four was quite possible. And from the moment the San Antonio Spurs announced they were no longer a cute, up-and-coming bunch during the NBA Cup and then kept beating the defending champion Thunder, their heavyweight postseason bout loomed on the horizon.
With the best-of-seven NBA conference finals set to tip off, here is what you need to know about the two matchups.
Eastern Conference Finals
No. 3 New York Knicks (53-29) vs. No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers (52-30)
These two teams could not have had different paths to the Eastern Conference finals. Since the Knicks dropped two of their first three games against the Atlanta Hawks in the first round, they’ve won seven in a row (including a second-round sweep of the Sixers, with a playoff record-tying 25 3-pointers in the closeout) by an average margin of 26.4 points. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers have had to sweat out two seven-game series against both the Toronto Raptors and Detroit Pistons.
The Cavaliers and their seventh-ranked offense, per our TRACR metric, come into the conference finals accustomed to facing strong defenses – the Knicks rank fourth in defensive TRACR, but the Raptors are fifth and the Pistons third. (Here’s our NBA Predictions page.)
The Knicks, under first-year head coach Mike Brown, won two of the three regular-season matchups with Cleveland before the new year. James Harden, Dennis Schroder and Keon Ellis were not yet on the Cavs roster, but they were following the NBA trade deadline, and coach Kenny Atkinson’ squad won the third meeting by 15 points.
In that game, the Cavaliers started Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. The Knicks went with their typical combination of Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, OG Anunoby and Karl-Anthony Towns. Both teams have gone with those starting groups for most of the playoffs, although swingman Max Strus (who did not play in any of their games against the Knicks this season) started over Wade in Game 7 against the Pistons.
With that said, look for Cleveland to reinsert Wade as the starter against the Knicks – he was +22 in plus/minus when the Cavs won the third regular-season meeting. Throughout those three games, Brunson – the Knicks’ All-NBA guard – shot a mere 1 of 15 from the floor when Wade was his primary defender (per NBA.com).
Brown faces some difficulty in assigning Brunson’s defensive matchup. The 6-11 Mobley and 6-9 Allen are both a no-go on the interior, and Brunson can’t be expected to deal with the offensive mastery of Mitchell or Harden. Wade is a pretty limited offensive player, but his 6-9 size and physical nature will create problems for Brunson’s relatively diminutive stature when it comes to boxing out. (Sidebar: these size concerns may cause the Knicks to bring back the double-big starting five they used at the end of last year’s Eastern Conference finals against the Indiana Pacers).
Towns has been absolutely cooking for the Knicks this postseason. The shift to using the 7-foot center as more of a passing hub out on the perimeter has done wonders for him (he’s averaging 6.6 assists in the playoffs, up from his previous high of 2.6) and their offense (126.0 offensive rating when Towns is on the floor). One of the reasons it’s worked so well is that Towns’ shooting ability forces his matchup (usually the opposing team’s center) to stay close to him at all times, and it took the Hawks and Sixers’ only true rim protector away from the paint. With Mobley and Allen sharing the floor together, however, this same advantage no longer exists.
Season Series: Knicks 2, Cavaliers 1
Knicks’ Averages: 113.0 PPG, 45.0 RPG, 24.3 APG, 8.7 SPG, 43.6 FG%, 37.2 3-PT% Cavaliers’ Averages: 114.7 PPG, 40.3 RPG, 24.7 APG, 8.0 SPG, 47.1 FG%, 40.9 3-PT%All of this may make it seem like the Cavaliers have the advantage, but remember, the Knicks have statistically been the better team on both sides of the ball – ranking second and fourth, respectively, in O-TRACR and D-TRACR, while the Cavaliers are seventh and 14th.
The Knicks are operating at the perfect frequency right now. On the flip side, the Cavs seem to be struggling to find a consistent tune. After winning three straight games to go up 3-2 on the Pistons, the Cavs followed up with an absolute stinker at home in Game 6. Mitchell, Harden and Co. can’t have those kinds of lapses against a Knicks team that is hungry to end their 53-year NBA championship drought.
The Knicks also have been getting much better production from their bench in the playoffs, ranking fifth in PPG (32.4) and second in plus/minus (+5.6), while the Cavaliers are eighth (29.8) and seventh (-0.6) in those categories, respectively.
Opta Win Probability: Knicks, 80.3%; Cavaliers 19.7%
Western Conference Finals
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder (64-18) vs. No. 2 San Antonio Spurs (62-20)
If there was ever a non-championship series with a championship feel, it would be this one between the Thunder and Spurs.
The defending NBA champion Thunder were first in regular season wins. The Spurs were second.
The Thunder are first in TRACR. The Spurs are second.
The Thunder have the newly crowned back-to-back NBA MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Spurs have a potential heir apparent for “best player” in Victor Wembanyama.
You get the point, right?
The Thunder are 8-0 in the playoffs, posting four-game sweeps of the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers, but the Spurs know how to beat OKC unlike any other team. The Thunder were 24-1 before San Antonio knocked them out of the NBA in-season tournament, and the Spurs went on to go 4-1 in their regular-season series (their final three wins were all by double figures).
Of course, this doesn’t tell the whole story. Thunder shooting guard Ajay Mitchell, one of the major standouts of this postseason, didn’t play in any of those final three losses to the Spurs. In fact, in the final matchup on Feb. 2, the Thunder didn’t play any of their championship starting five (Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein). Additionally, guard Jared McCain, a standout off the bench, had yet to be acquired from the Sixers.
Spurs fans, though, could argue Wembanyama was coming off the bench and operating on a minutes restriction in three of the team’s four wins. He’s No. 1 in our DRIP metric. (The full NBA Player Rankings and Projections.)
On paper, coach Mitch Johnson’s Spurs are the perfect foil for the Thunder. Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, De’Aaron Fox and Devin Vassell are pesky on-ball defenders who can take turns shadowing Gilgeous-Alexander, and they have the safety net of the 7-3 Wembanyama, the NBA Defensive Player of the Year who set the playoff record with 12 blocks against the Timberwolves, to clean up any mistakes they might make. On offense, those guards are capable of dribbling into the paint and maintaining control of the ball (the Spurs are fifth in turnover rate) against OKC, a turnover-inducing juggernaut (second in opponent turnover rate).
Season Series: Spurs 4, Thunder 1
Spurs’ Averages: 114.2 PPG, 48.0 RPG, 24.2 APG, 8.2 SPG, 47.0 FG%, 36.0 3-PT% Thunder Averages: 109.2 PPG, 45.0 RPG, 23.2 APG, 7.4 SPG, 44.8 FG%, 33.0 3-PT%This doesn’t mean coach Mark Daigneault’s Thunder are just going to step aside to let the Spurs begin a new dynasty. McCain is there now to offer more aid to an already-impressive bench (third in playoff PPG and first in plus-minus), and Mitchell has reached new heights since the last time these two teams met. This postseason, Mitchell is averaging 18.8 points, 4.9 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 1.4 steals with 57.1% true shooting.
The Thunder also have the experience edge, even winning in seven games against the Denver Nuggets and the Pacers in last year’s postseason.
Yes, the Spurs have proven their merit against the Portland Trail Blazers and Minnesota Timberwolves, but there also was never really a moment when the ultimate outcome felt in doubt. In many ways, the Western Conference finals will be the emerging group’s first real challenge.
Opta Win Probability: Thunder, 66.7%; Spurs, 33.3%
NBA Conference Finals Predictions: What to Know About the Final Four Teams Standing Opta Analyst.
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