Some ministers believe Sir Keir Starmer could step aside if Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election to avoid a long leadership contest
But the Manchester mayor could be thwarted by former health secretary Wes Streeting, who announced he will run in a Labour leadership race on Saturday after resigning from Starmer’s Cabinet earlier this week. Streeting’s allies have claimed he has the 81 MPs needed to mount a challenge.
Socialist Labour MPs have also indicated they are likely to field a candidate of their own to broaden the debate, and a surprise contender such as foreign secretary Yvette Cooper could throw their hat into the ring.
However, Labour is split over the prospect of a drawn-out leadership contest, with many wanting to avoid chaos while others insist there must be a wide field of candidates.
Could there be a Burnham coronation?
The Labour Party has begun its selection process for the Makerfield by-election, which could pave the way for Burnham making a return to Westminster. Burnham is seen as the leading figure of the Labour left.
Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband are also understood to back the idea of Burnham running for the leadership if he becomes an MP, and could forgo their own ambitions for the top job.
The so-called King of the North has been given the go-ahead to run by the party’s National Executive Committee, with the election expected to be held in June.
Reform UK is expected to pull out all the stops to prevent Burnham from winning the seat after Nigel Farage’s party seized all of Makerfield’s eight wards in last week’s local elections.
If Burnham wins the contest, some ministers believe Starmer would consider standing aside to ensure a smooth transition of power, according to The Daily Telegraph.
One minister told the publication the Prime Minister is much less defiant about the idea of standing down for Burnham privately than he is in public, and is considering “all options”. Around 90 Labour MPs have publicly called for Starmer to resign, according to reporting by The i Paper.
Andy Burnham seen here on 15 May, has been given the go-ahead to run in Makerfield by Labour’s NEC (Photo: Temilade Adelaja/Reuters)A Burnham supporter told The i Paper “the vibe in No 10 is despondent”, with Starmer running out of close allies after sacking his most senior adviser, Morgan McSweeney, and his joint chief of staff, Jill Cuthebertson, on maternity leave.
They said the Government is “sounding desperate” by “pleading for no chaos but seemingly unable to admit or recognise chaos comes from a failure of leadership”.
Education secretary Bridget Phillipson was the first Cabinet minister to endorse the return of the Greater Manchester Mayor, saying on Friday that he “would be a strong candidate”.
Streeting also backed Burnham’s return in his resignation letter on Thursday, and several others are thought to be supportive of him in private.
Which candidates could thwart Burnham’s return?
While many Labour MPs want a smooth transition to cut down on the level of self-inflicted chaos, other leadership hopefuls are pushing for a long contest.
Streeting confirmed he will stand in any leadership contest to replace Starmer, but said he would not force an immediate leadership challenge as it “wasn’t in the party’s interest [or the] national interest” to hold the race before Burnham has had a chance to return to parliament.
His allies have insisted that he has the support of 81 Labour MPs needed to enter a race, potentially disrupting any plans for an orderly handover from Starmer to Burnham.
A senior Labour source claimed that if a full leadership battle was triggered, Cooper would be likely to join the fray as a surprise candidate, but they added that she would be unlikely to secure enough backers.
Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper may well try to run if a leadership battle is triggered, a source said (Photo: Reuters)The foreign secretary has already contested a leadership election and failed, but she has served in the Cabinet in two Labour governments and is perhaps one of the most experienced figures in the party.
The Socialist Campaign Group – a parliamentary caucus of the Labour Party – is also likely to put forward a candidate on the left of the party to widen the debate, adding to what could be a fractious and fragmented leadership contest.
This delivered a surprise outcome in 2015 when it was Jeremy Corbyn’s turn to stand as the group’s candidate only for him to win, beating the likes of Burnham and Cooper.
Corbyn is no longer in the party and Rebecca Long-Bailey lost to Starmer in 2020, but this tradition could see a figure such as Dawn Butler or Nadia Whittome enter the bid for leadership.
Speaking at a rally in London, Corbyn said he wouldn’t vote for any of the leadership contenders.
“It’s important we have an open contest that includes candidates from across the party’s political spectrum, and time for that to happen,” the Labour source told The i Paper.
But this means the contest would take “months not weeks”, they added.
Al Carns, a former Royal Marine, is another minister who could enter the race as a dark horse.
Minister for the Armed Forces, Al Carns using a Oversnow Reconnaissance Vehicle (ORV) in Norway earlier this year (Photo: MoD)The Scotsman boasts an impressive CV and could have a broad appeal to the electorate, but he is relatively novice and Labour members may feel the new leader needs more political nous.
It has also been suggested that Carns might drop out of a leadership contest after his profile has been raised, before lobbying the most likely victor for the role of Defence Secretary.
Why getting a new leader isn’t so simple
If Burnham were to become leader, it would not necessarily be straightforward for Labour, with huge hurdles to political stability and electoral success.
Even the process itself may prove complicated. Candidates must secure 81 MP nominations and also win support from either 5 per cent of constituency Labour parties, or from at least three affiliates – at least two of which must be trade union affiliates – comprising 5 per cent of affiliated membership.
Due to the preferential ballot system, members rank candidates in order of preference, and there may be disquiet over second preference votes, which could favour Starmer if he decided to stand.
A Starmer loyalist MP said the newer intake of colleagues in the Commons were too easily spooked by the political pressure of the job, and facing the frustrations of their constituents, comparing them to the 2019 intake under Boris Johnson.
“The 2024 intake lack political courage,” the MP said.
Johnson had a sharp rise to success, winning the 2019 election with a landslide victory and bringing in a cohort of new Conservative MPs.
But he ultimately fell from glory during the Partygate scandal and was forced to step down following the resignation of 62 ministerial and party officials in July 2022.
A Government source said there was a sense of bewilderment in the civil service – particularly those working on the response to the Iran conflict, the pain of which has not even begun to be felt.
“It’s almost like it’s February 2021, just before lockdown, and here we are having a possible leadership contest,” the exasperated source said.
They suggested that even if there was an acceptance that Starmer should not lead the party into the next election, now was not the right time to plunge into a party contest over who should replace him.
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