Cade Horton is out for the year (and then some). Justin Steele is out at least until after the All-Star break (and hasn’t thrown since the beginning of last season). Matthew Boyd just got surgery on his meniscus (and is older and injury-prone).
Meanwhile, the Cubs (27-14) are one of the best teams in baseball with a lot of positional certainty at the big-league level and positional prospects in the minors, but plenty of outgoing free-agent pitchers at the end of the year and a clear need for impact in the rotation right now.
Add it all up and, yeah, they’ll very likely be adding a starting pitcher via trade this season.
But while that won’t likely happen anytime soon, the rumors and breakdowns are already out in full force. Let’s break these rumors down and get an understanding of who might be on their radar.
The best place to start for that is The Athletic, where Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma list out ten(!) starters the Cubs could target before the 2026 MLB Trade Deadline, which is a little later than usual this year (Aug. 3). The first two names on their list, Logan Webb and Robbie Ray, are guys we talked about just the other day, so I won’t rehash that convo here. I will note, however, that The Athletic suggests that Robbie Ray is “an arm the Cubs have liked for years.” Which is not something I had heard or remembered reading, myself. Good note to file away, I suppose. The next guy on their list, Freddy Peralta, is another name we’ve talked about a lot, not only because of the previous connection to Craig Counsell, and the fact that Peralta is good and a free agent at the end of the year, but also because Bruce Levine dropped a note that the Cubs have shown some interest in him already. He kinda retracted that a little bit later, but I think it’s more than safe to say the Cubs would love to have Peralta *and* the Mets are likely to trade him. The Mets also have Clay Holmes, however, and his 57.2% groundball rate would look mighty good in front of this Cubs defense. Holmes is making $13M this year and also has a $12M player option for 2027. Stepping away from The Athletic for a moment, Hector Gomez reported this morning that the Cubs have shown interest in Peralta as well as Sandy Alcantara:SOURCE: The Chicago Cubs are showing a lot of interest in starting pitchers Freddy Peralta and Sandy Alcántara.@z101digital
— Héctor Gómez (@hgomez27) May 11, 2026 And for what it’s worth, Alcantara is another guy on The Athletic’s list, but he’s also an arm we know the Cubs have been circling for years. Plus, the Cubs and Marlins had agreed in principle on a deal for Jesus Luzardo before medicals scuttled it, and obviously pulled off the Edward Cabrera trade this winter. So it seems likely to me that these conversations could continue. Perhaps more to the point, Alcantara has looked pretty good again this season, with a 3.90 ERA (3.47 xERA), mostly on the strength of weak contact quality. His strikeout rate, however, has been pretty abysmal. But the velocity is there, the upside is there, and the results have been strong. He’s also gobbling up a TON of innings so far this season – 57.2 IP, 2nd most in MLB. That’s something the Cubs can use. Plus, Alcantara comes with a $21M club option for next season. And generally speaking, I think the Cubs would STRONGLY prefer to get a pitcher with multiple years of control, because of the impending exits for Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, and Matthew Boyd (plus the fact that Cade Horton won’t be back until mid-season 2027 at best). After that, The Athletic lists some more familiar targets, including Zac Gallen, Michael Soroka, and Joe Ryan. But there were some new names and rumors, as well, including Sonny Gray (now on the Red Sox) and Foster Griffin, a pitcher “the Cubs extensively scouted in Japan.” But the two most interesting names, in my opinion, are Payton Tolle and Connelly Early. You might remember both names from over the winter, before the Cabrera trade, when we wondered if the Cubs might try to swap a young, MLB-ready position player (like Matt Shaw) for one of the Red Sox young, MLB-ready starters (like Tolle and Early). But I guess the rumors are coming back. Here’s what Mooney/Sharma had to say:But would Boston’s chief baseball officer, Craig Breslow, make a challenge trade involving a young starter such as Payton Tolle or Connelly Early? This past offseason, the Red Sox were eyeing both Nico Hoerner (who is no longer available) and Matt Shaw. Maybe a top prospect such as Kevin Alcántara would be enticing? The Cubs could improve this year’s club while also building out their rotation for the future.
Short of acquiring an impact, cost-controlled veteran starter, I like the idea of going after a trade like this. A price tag starting with Matt Shaw would be pretty significant, but potentially more doable (in terms of impact this season) if Michael Conforto keeps hitting well. The problem is that even setting aside the part-time contributions of Matt Shaw, which have been great, he’s extremely valuable insurance for an injury to any of Alex Bregman, Dansby Swanson, or Nico Hoerner. So, dealing him right now would still be a bit of a gamble for the present (to say nothing of what is starting to look like an even brighter future). If the cost started with Kevin Alcantara, by contrast, I think the Cubs would be much more willing to roll the dice. The problem is that Shaw definitely has more value than Alcantara right now, because even though Alcantara is launching a homer every other day this season, his strikeout rate at Triple-A is a very big problem. Still, Early and Tolle are both very intriguing arms. Payton Tolle: 23-year-old lefty, 2.78 ERA through four starts. Connelly Early: 24-year-old lefty, 3.16 ERA through eight starts. The Cubs also do seem to like their left-handed starting pitchers (I bet it has something to do with how they project at Wrigley Field), so I wouldn’t dismiss this idea out of hand. Plus, Craig Breslow used to be in the Cubs front office, so there’s maybe a little less friction in seeing eye-to-eye on value. But even though the Red Sox are reeling, these guys both come with a ton of control. So it’s tough to see Boston parting with either, short of a very pricey return. At USA Today, Bob Nightengale notes that the Mets (Freddy Peralta, Clay Holmes), Giants (Robbie Ray, Logan Webb), and Diamondbacks (Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Ryne Nelson, and Michael Soroka) all have pitchers on the trade block, with only time standing between them and a deal getting done. But there was one other name mentioned in his article that caught my attention: Eduardo Rodriguez:The biggest prize would be Eduardo Rodriguez.
Rodriguez, who signed a four-year, $80 million contract, was a huge disappointment the first two years of his deal. He went just 12-13 with a 5.02 ERA, giving up 234 hits and 79 walks in 204 1/3 innings. These days, Rodriguez is pitching as well as he ever has in his career, going 3-0 with a 2.50 ERA in his first seven starts. He is earning $21 million this year and $19 million in 2027. Yet, he could add another $17 million to the deal with a vesting option in 2028 if he pitches 150 innings in 2027 or a combined 300 innings in 2026-2027.
He would be the perfect piece to move if the Diamondbacks not only wanted to replenish their farm system, but also save money.
Rodriquez, 33, has had plenty of high-level success in the past, but, as Nightengale points out, he had back-to-back rough seasons in 2024 and 2025. This year, however, he’s been mostly lights out. The White Sox and Orioles tagged him for four runs each in two of his eight starts, but he’s allowed just four earned runs COMBINED in the other six outings, including games against the Dodgers, Braves, Brewers, and Pirates. He’s far from my No. 1 choice *right now*, but we can revisit his attractiveness as the season goes on. The Cubs might just want to take whoever is looking good this season and figure the rest out later. Nightengale does talk about Tarik Skubal potentially becoming available, but the consensus seems to be that the Tigers won’t trade him, pretty much no matter what. The injury doesn’t help, but they’re also a little too “all-in” on this team to trade him. If he does get dealt, though, wooooooooeeeee. That’ll be a big one. Ken Rosenthal also got into the trade talk a little bit during his latest episode of Foul Territory, but the gist was this: Don’t expect any more trades right now, just because the Patrick Bailey deal went down. Giants President Buster Posey is one of those aggressive, decisive executives, and that breed is rare. He did have some nice things to say about the Cubs, however, and is looking forward to the big Cubs/Braves matchup starting tomorrow.The bottom line here is simple. The Cubs have significant needs in the rotation both this season and next *and* a good reason to make one of their biggest in-season trades in a decade. And while there is a low chance of a deal anytime in the next 7 weeks, I wouldn’t actually be surprised if they’re one of the more aggressive (in terms of timeline) buyers out there.
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