There’s a shift in tone in Washington that’s emerged in the past few weeks. In my conversations on Capitol Hill and K Street alike, it’s impossible to miss. Democrats seem more upbeat and Republicans more deflated as the outlook of the midterm elections grows more lopsided. It’s giving 2006 vibes—the comparison Republicans have been hoping to avoid at all costs.
The President’s party typically faces net losses in midterm elections, but 2026 may well be a breed apart. As I’ve been talking with the folks who worked on the 2006 races, they say this feels worse for Republicans; having covered that cycle from over in The Associated Press’ old bureau on K Street, I cannot argue. In that year, Democrats picked up 31 House seats and five seats in the Senate. By August of 2006, Democrats enjoyed a 13-point advantage in CNN’s polling. At this point in 2026, Republicans are quick to point out, Democrats still only have a six-point advantage in CNN polling.
One more reference point to consider: A record 38 Republicans are retiring from their House seats this cycle. In 2006, that number was 17; the GOP held 12 of those seats.
Trump has warned if Democrats win any control of Congress, it will mean a mangled Washington stuck dealing with the I-Word once again. It’s a route Congress has tried twice before with Trump, and the outcome on a third outing is not likely to be different. He may be right but it isn’t scaring off voters.
Republicans welcomed the dawn of a second Trump Era with optimism that his fundraising monster would lift all boats. Conversations with senior hands guiding GOP election efforts suggest a different dynamic emerging—with Trump amassing a massive warchest of his own and spending little of it where it would make a difference. His grievances could end up costing two incumbent Republicans their Senate seats, and maybe give one over to Democrats in, of all places, deep-red Texas. National Republicans expect him to support his pals running in North Carolina and Michigan and are hoping he might be persuaded to also spend in Georgia. That’s where the eventual survivor of a three-way GOP primary will be tasked with taking out Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff before he starts eyeing a promotion.
To be sure, the election picture isn’t entirely rosy for Democrats. The race for California Governor has flown into chaos as a leading Democratic contender bowed out amid allegations of sexual assault and a jumbled primary has not yet sorted itself out (Tuesday’s debate on CNN might offer a reordering of that race.)
Nationally, the enthusiasm gap is epic; according to ABC News-Washington Post polling, Democrats have a 14-point advantage in enthusiasm, the biggest since Democrats pulled up their win in 2006. All the while, the President continues with the kind of threats, actions, and rhetoric that is making life tougher for his nominal friends in the Republican Party. It’s easy to understand why Democrats are eager to punch their screens while Republicans seem, at best, duty-bound.
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