With the NBA playoffs off to a competitive start, we’re looking at the path to success for the eight second-round teams to reach the conference finals.
The first round of the 2026 NBA playoffs was one to remember: With six series going at least six games and three of those making it the seven-game distance, one could argue it was the best opening round in the 16-team postseason era.
Now we flip the page to the conference semifinals. As we learned in the first round, any of the eight remaining teams can win a best-of-seven series so long as it properly executes its game plan (sorry, Boston Celtics fans).
Given that type of competitiveness, we look at what each of the eight teams needs to do to make it through the second round and advance to the conference finals.
Season Series
Detroit Pistons 2, Cleveland Cavaliers 2 – the three most-recent meetings were decided by four-or-fewer points New York Knicks 2, Philadelphia 76ers 2 – the road team won every matchup Oklahoma City Thunder 4, Los Angeles Lakers 0 – OKC’s average margin of victory was 29.3 points, tied for the fourth highest ever in a season series of 4+ games Minnesota Timberwolves 2, San Antonio Spurs 1 – Anthony Edwards scored career-high 55 points in the T-wolves’ lone lossEastern Conference Second Round
No. 1 Detroit Pistons (62-20) vs. No. 4 Cleveland Cavaliers (52-30)
Pistons’ Path To Success: In the first round, the Pistons learned Cade Cunningham, Tobias Harris and Ausar Thompson are players who can be counted on in a postseason series. One guy they couldn’t always count on, though, was All-Star big man Jalen Duren. During the regular season, he was second on the team in DRIP (which projects a player’s contribution to a team’s plus/minus per 100 possession). However, in their seven-game series against the Orlando Magic, the Pistons were worse with Duren on the floor than with him off it. They can beat the dregs of the NBA with their flawed roster, but Orlando probably would have won had it not been for Franz Wagner’s calf injury. The Cavaliers are healthy to start the second round, have bigs who can bother Duren and possess more offensive firepower (seventh in offensive TRACR) than Orlando (22nd). The Pistons are going to need Duren to rekindle a higher level in the second round.
Cavaliers’ Path To Success: The Cavaliers are facing a very similar opponent to their first-round matchup, the Toronto Raptors. The Pistons are a defense-first group (second in defensive TRACR) that relies on offensive rebounding (third in ORB%) and turnover creation (first in opponent TOV%) to buoy their offense. In their first four games against them, the Magic had more offensive rebounds and fewer turnovers than the Pistons. But down 3-1 in the series, the Pistons won both categories in the final three games and became just the 15th team in NBA history to climb out of such a hole. In the regular season, Cleveland was ninth in both TOV% and OREB% (plus, 12th in DREB%). Of course, their core group was hardly ever healthy, so these numbers could be skewed one way or the other. One thing is certain, though: If Cleveland can limit turnovers and win the battle of the boards, a second-round upset is in its future.
No. 3 New York Knicks (53-29) vs. No. 7 Philadelphia 76ers (45-37)
Knicks’ Path To Success: The talk of the Town(s) in New York was how the Knicks flipped their first-round series against the Atlanta Hawks when they put their faith in the hands of center Karl-Anthony Towns. The key adjustment the Knicks made after falling behind 2-1 was running more of their offense through the 7-foot big man. In the final three games, he averaged 8.7 assists per game (he only averaged 3.3 in the first three). As a result, the Knicks had a 132.4 offensive rating – by far the best mark of any team in their final three games (the Oklahoma City Thunder were second at 126.1). Defensively, KAT is also the Knicks’ linchpin. This has always been a weak point for him, but historically, he does well guarding skilled bigs with a little bit of weight on them (see his defense against Nikola Jokic in the 2024 NBA playoffs). Joel Embiid’s return played a huge role in the Sixers swinging the Celtics’ series from 3-1 down. Towns needs to clip his wings while also soaring high when his team possesses the ball.
76ers’ Path To Success: The Sixers were far from a regular-season juggernaut (16th in TRACR). What they have that helps them in the postseason is a bunch of ball handlers who can create offense for themselves (remember, the more passes, the higher the odds for a turnover). In the first round, the Sixers had the second-lowest turnover rate (11.5%) and the fourth-most points off pull-up jumpers (25.6 PPG). Few advanced metrics are going to favor them against the Knicks (our prediction model only gives the Sixers a 16.6% chance of advancing). But if Tyrese Maxey, Paul George, VJ Edgecombe and Embiid can generate enough tough buckets, Philadelphia may be able to pull off back-to-back miracles for the first time since Rocky Balboa.
Western Conference Second Round
No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder (64-18) vs. No. 4 Los Angeles Lakers (53-29)
Thunder’s Path To Success: In one of the most competitive first rounds in recent vintage, OKC was the only team to post a four-game sweep. That helps make it abundantly clear this is the Thunder’s title to win (40.9% chance of repeating as NBA champions – twice as high as the next-highest team). The Lakers, especially if short-handed, don’t pose much of a threat to them. The only way the Thunder can really be made mortal is if they allow the Lakers to bog down their offensive process and force them into uninspired halfcourt possessions that feature little ball movement. The key stat to monitor here is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s assists. Last postseason, the Thunder were 14-4 when the star point guard had five or more assists and 2-3 when he failed to eclipse this total. In this year’s first-round dispatching of the Phoenix Suns, the reigning MVP averaged 8.0 APG.
Lakers’ Path To Success: The prediction model indicates no team has more of a mountain to climb than the Lakers (10.4% chance of winning the second-round series). The Thunder aren’t the dysfunctional Houston Rockets – LA’s first-round opponent – so the underdogs need Luka Doncic back from a hamstring strain. He’ll be out to start the series, but, they hope, it isn’t much longer after that. From there, the Lakers need to follow the same blueprint of the 76ers beating Boston: hit shots and don’t turn the ball over. The Thunder (first in D-TRACR for the second straight season) are one of the best defenses we’ve seen in quite some time and an opponent absolutely can’t allow them to force turnovers (second in opponent TOV%) and create a track meet. LA’s three-headed monster (Doncic, Austin Reaves and LeBron James) makes it one of the best shot-making teams (second in expected FG% during the regular season). However, the Lakers struggled with ball security during the regular season (20th in TOV%). They have to hold onto the ball to have a chance for a series upset.
No. 2 San Antonio Spurs (62-20) vs. No. 6 Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33)
Spurs’ Path To Success: No team in the first round averaged more points in the paint (57.0) than the Timberwolves. When a team can get to the rim so frequently, it’s less prone to offensive lulls because interior shots and free throws (a secondary benefit of getting downhill) fall more consistently than outside shots. On the flip side, the Portland Trail Blazers – the Spurs’ first-round opponent – finished 12th of 16 teams in this category. That can be explained by the 7-4 force of nature patrolling the middle for the Spurs, Victor Wembanyama. With the NBA Defensive Player of the Year on the court, the Spurs outscored the Blazers by 18 points per 100 possessions. A lot of this came from his contributions as a rim protector. The Spurs had a 95.7 defensive rating in his minutes on the floor (he missed two games while in concussion protocol). If Wembanyama can stay healthy, San Antonio is the better team (second in TRACR) and should steamroll right by the T-wolves (unless, that is, this next player steps up in a big way).
Timberwolves’ Path To Success: First things first, the Timberwolves need to get Anthony Edwards back in the lineup, which seems to be coming sooner than we initially expected. If that happens in a timely fashion, Minnesota (currently with a 22.6% chance of advancing) may have a better shot of ending the Spurs’ season than we think. In the regular season, the T-wolves had the fourth-best net rating against the Spurs and won two of their three matchups. The reason for this is their rare combination of size and shooting, which enables them to match Wembanyama’s massive frame while also keeping him out of the lane. Naz Reid is the X-factor here. In the three meetings, he averaged a +23 plus-minus, his best mark against a Western Conference team this season. His ability to space the floor at the 5-spot (a career 37.1% 3-point shooter) allows Minnesota to field lineups that are a counter to San Antonio’s strengths. Reid struggled in the Timberwolves’ first-round series against the Denver Nuggets (10.8 PPG on 52.4% true shooting). He has to recapture his regular-season splendor (13.6 PPG on 56.5% TS) for Minnesota to vanquish San Antonio in the second round.
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