The state pension triple lock would need to be scrapped if Britain goes to war with Russia, defence and Whitehall insiders believe.
A wartime scenario would put massive demands on government funding for defence, pushing it far beyond the current spending target of 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2027.
High-profile spending items such as the triple lock, net-zero policies and benefits would need to be scaled back, suspended or shelved in order to fund a massive mobilisation of extra troops, equipment and civilian defence if the UK was in direct conflict with the Putin regime, say sources.
While the Government insists it is already ramping up defence spending as a deterrence against all-out war, there are fears in Whitehall that a conflict could be triggered by a miscalculation.
There are currently no plans to scrap the triple lock and Sir Keir Starmer’s Government has committed to keeping it for the rest of this Parliament.
However in the event of the outbreak of war, public spending across the board would need to be looked at to bolster the UK’s military response, sources said.
Britain and other European Nato allies are already locked in a hybrid war, also known as a “sub-threshold environment”, with Moscow, with Russian subs and shadow fleet vessels patrolling the waters and tracking undersea cables around the UK and daily attempts at cyber attacks linked to Putin’s regime.
In response, the UK has stepped up its military and civilian defence planning, including increasing spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by next year with an ambition to ramp up to 3.5 per cent by 2035, and upping the tempo of wargame exercises.
The latest of these exercises took place last week between the military and defence industry.
At the same time, a number of high-profile figures have called for the triple lock – which guarantees the state pension will rise by whichever is higher out of inflation, 2.5 per cent or increases in earnings – to be scrapped because it is increasingly unaffordable.
Last week, Sir Tony Blair’s think-tank, the TBI, joined calls for the triple lock to be axed and replaced by a new system for the state funding of retirement.
The Office for Budget Responsibility last year forecast that the extra cost of the triple lock to state pension spending will be around £15.5bn by 2030.
But no main UK political party, except the Green Party of England and Wales, has made it official policy to axe the triple lock as it is seen as a politically toxic vote-loser.
Gen Sir Richard Barrons, one of the authors of last year’s Strategic Defence Review, said he agreed with the assessment that the government would need to make “choices” in a wartime scenario, with the triple lock and wider welfare spending likely targets.
Barrons said: “This is the central issue right now: spending more on defence now means cutting something else. The Government has elected not to pursue this.
“Let’s say that improving deterrence, including national resilience, within three to five years requires a minimum of an extra £10bn per annum to defence starting now, and likely an investment surge that includes £50bn of private capital.
“Funding that has to come from elsewhere in the £1.3trn of annual UK public spend, or from more (perhaps hypothecated) borrowing such as defence bonds.
“I do not know whether the triple lock is seen as part of this, but the triple lock is seen by many as not only unaffordable but also inordinately favours the grey over the young.
“I think the bigger question is what parts of a generally burgeoning welfare offer may both be trimmed/delivered more efficiently, not just the triple lock.
“Since Russia invaded Ukraine again in 2022, defence spending has risen £16bn and welfare spending £83bn, so we are looking at choices not lack of money.”
However former pensions minister Sir Steve Webb said if the UK went to war with Russia, inflation would soar even higher and decoupling the state pension from inflation would be even more punishing for pensioners.
Webb, a partner at pensions consultants LCP, said: “As things stand, pensions in April 2027 will rise by the highest of wage inflation, price inflation or 2.5 per cent.
“It wouldn’t be surprising if the highest of these was inflation, not least given the Bank of England assessment yesterday.
“In which case, the only way you would save any money would be to pay pensioners less than inflation at a time when energy bills were soaring, in order to pay for missiles or something?
“I think there’s also a question about the difference between capital and revenue spending on defence.
“If, say, you simply need to buy more capital items (drones, etc) then this is one off, and it’s hard to see you would finance this by cutting recurring spending like state pensions.
“If, on the other hand, you thought you needed (say) a bigger Army every year then you might think about cutting some other item of regular spending, but these things take time to ramp up – you can’t suddenly find lots of extra soldiers by next April.
“So I’m pretty sceptical about whether any of this will happen, and in particular whether the state pension could get squeezed when pensioners are being hit by cost of living pressures, perhaps more than other groups if we’re talking about energy bills.”
A Government spokesperson said: “Our commitment to the triple lock is worth £470 a year to those receiving the new state pension, and we have launched a Pensions Commission to look at what more is required to ensure the pensions system is strong, fair and sustainable.
“This Government is delivering record investment into defence, with over £270bn in defence across this Parliament and the Strategic Defence Review sets out how we’re moving to warfighting readiness.”
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