Posted on: April 30, 2026, 11:42h.
Last updated on: April 30, 2026, 11:42h.
The prediction market giant reached that status on an adjusted handle per-adult basis It jumped five spots year-over-year Kalshi maintains it’s not a sports betting companyKalshi consistently says it’s not a sports wagering company and while that status is up for debate in the eyes of some industry observers, it cannot be denied that the prediction market juggernaut is climbing the ranks of US sportsbooks.
Kalshi joined the top five of US sportsbooks in March, according to a research firm. (Image: Getty)On an adjusted handle per-adult basis, Kalshi was the fourth-largest US sportsbook in March, according to Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG), confirming the yes/no exchange benefit from the NCAA Tournament. Based on the metric used by EKG, only DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics were bigger than Kalshi in the third month of the year.
Kalshi is rising the ranks of US sportsbooks. (Image: Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG)).As the chart above indicates, Kalshi in March surpassed some well-known sportsbook operators, including BetMGM, Bet365 and Caesars Sportsbook. While Kalshi and other prediction market firms are attempting to positions themselves as much more than alternatives to traditional sportsbooks, it’s worth noting the largest US yes/no exchange jumped five spots year-over-year based on the EKG gauge.
Details Matter
Discussing Kalshi’s ascent in the sportsbook space requires close examination of details, including how EKG arrives at the aforementioned data set.
The research firm uses an internal metric it calls handle-analog, which measures daily positive fluctuations in open interest, executions prices and “resolution-day activity patterns evaluated across tens of millions of market-level data points.” Those aren’t the typical market share metrics associated with the sports wagering industry. Additionally, Kalshi and its competitors have some help.
Kalshi, Crypto.com, and Polymarket U.S. adjusted handle-per-adult figures reflect both organic activity and partner-driven volume (e.g., Robinhood, Coinbase, Underdog, PrizePicks, DraftKings) and are therefore not strictly comparable to standalone OSB operators,” according to EKG.
Said another way, Kalshi’s sports event contracts volume is boosted by relationships with companies such as Coinbase Global and Robinhood Markets because event contract traders on those platforms are transacting in Kalshi contracts.
In Sports Betting, Prediction Markets Can’t Be Ignored
While prediction markets attempt to steer focus away from their purported sports betting footprints, data confirm sports derivatives account for a significant majority of the volume on these exchanges. Likewise, platforms such as Kalshi have become prime stomping grounds for sharp bettors that were previously limited or booted by traditional sportsbooks.
Conversely, an array of surveys confirm that when recreational bettors have a choice between prediction markets and platforms such as DraftKings and FanDuel, they overwhelmingly prefer the latter. Still, data indicate prediction markets are making online sports betting (OSB) inroads.
“U.S. sports prediction markets have scaled to an estimated ~$2 billion in monthly Handle-Analog, representing 11% of combined U.S. OSB handle and prediction market Handle-Analog as of March 2026, per our estimates,” adds EKG. For calendar year 2026 as a whole, we project U.S. Handle-Analog to rise to ~$34 billion, which would represent ~20% of trailing 12-month U.S. OSB handle.”
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