The early betting market for the top of the 2027 NFL Draft looks a lot like the early betting market for the 2026 NFL Draft. Did we learn nothing?
One year after he opened as the favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the most recent draft cycle, Texas quarterback Arch Manning has opened as the presumptive favorite to be the No. 1 overall choice in the next draft cycle. At BetMGM, Manning is +175 to win the award. Dante Moore, who would have been the No. 2 pick this year had he come out, is next at +500.
Jeremiah Smith is +750, as the Big Ten’s defensive coordinator fraternity breathes a sigh of relief that he can finally leave. Ohio State’s Julian Sayin is +1100. Maybe we’ll spend another month talking about how the entire Ohio State team will get drafted only for it to narrowly edge a down Alabama team.
LaNorris Sellers is +1200 to go first overall. The South Carolina quarterback has the sixth-best odds of any player because, if there’s one thing we’ve learned, NFL clubs are willing to ignore the tape if the athletic traits are spicy.
Dylan Stewart is +1500. Darian Mensah is +1800. Jayden Maiava is +2000. Fifteen players have odds of +5000 or shorter; 12 of them are quarterbacks.
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Two cycles ago, 6 quarterbacks were picked with the first 12 selections of the opening round. Most of that had to do with what was coming. The 2026 class looked weak. If you liked a guy, might as well take him now.
Then the 2026 class was somehow weaker than expected. The No. 1 pick was nowhere to be found on draft boards a year before the Las Vegas Raiders locked in on him. The only other quarterback taken in the first round was selected in a manner that brought about widespread criticism.
Will there be a dozen first-round quarterbacks in the 2027 class? Of course not. But we already know of a ton of teams in need of a franchise quarterback before we even set the schedule for the new NFL season.
Arizona, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, New York (Jets), and Detroit are all projected to draft quarterbacks in next year’s first round. We could see more teams join the quarterback market if their seasons go awry.
With at least 4 teams guaranteed to be picking a quarterback in a stacked class, we’ll probably see another early run on the position. A quarterback is going first overall. But which one?
We knew for months leading up to the 2025 NFL Draft that Cam Ward would be the top pick.
We knew for months leading up to the 2026 NFL Draft that Fernando Mendoza would be the top pick.
There will be some serious debate about the No. 1 choice in 2027, which is to say don’t bet on Manning at the current odds.
Manning has been good for stretches. He has not yet put all the pieces together and held them there. As a backup in 2024, he flashed against already-bludgeoned teams. In 2025, he began his tenure as the Texas starting quarterback with a few duds.
The season-opening loss to Ohio State was ugly. Manning looked flummoxed by a veteran defensive playcaller and a stacked defense. Then he looked off in an 11-for-25 performance against UTEP that saw him throw for just 114 yards with a pick. He was sacked 6 times in a loss to Florida and threw 2 interceptions.
From Oct. 25 on through the end of the season, Manning was dynamite, though. He had a QBR of 91.9 or greater in 4 of his last 5 games. The only exception was the loss at Georgia. He threw for 346 yards and 3 scores in a come-from-behind road win over Mississippi State. He shredded Vanderbilt. He took a blowtorch to Michigan.
If we could bottle the final 21 quarters of Manning’s 2025 season and spread that goodness across an entire campaign, he might end up being the runaway pick. Alas…
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So who’s the guy if not Manning? Is it Moore? There are questions there, too. Moore threw 2 picks in 2 Playoff games and looked like he still had some growing to do. Going back to Oregon for another year was the right move for him. Notre Dame’s CJ Carr is intriguing, but projecting him to jump to No. 1 overall pick status is asking for a lot of growth in his redshirt sophomore campaign.
We should be talking about Sayin more.
Yes, another first-time starter going into his redshirt sophomore campaign. Yes, another guy whose postseason looked shaky. But of all the guys at the top of the board, Sayin was the cleanest in 2025.
Folks in Columbus were talking about the one-time Nick Saban recruit as something of a quarterback savant before he made his first start. Then all he did was turn in a 3,610-yard season with 32 touchdown passes, an 89.6 QBR that ranked second nationally, and a 77% completion clip that led all FBS passers.
Sayin is a little short, standing 6-foot-1. He’s already a highly refined passer who showed great processing skills as a first-year starter. He layered throws with ease. He put deep balls on a rope and hit receivers in stride. He has a compact release and a real knack for diagnosing what a defense is showing him. The floor looks ridiculously high, making him a safe pick in a draft where missing on a quarterback will cost GMs their job.
Of quarterbacks with at least 400 dropbacks last season, Sayin’s turnover-worthy play rate of 1.4% was the lowest.
His legs are a virtual non-factor, and that will lead some NFL clubs to look elsewhere. Sayin’s postseason tape was disappointing; he got sped up by better pass rushes.
But Sayin’s first year as a starter was much less bumpy than Manning’s. Manning has the athletic traits some teams will covet. Sayin is a pure passer who showed very few hiccups as a redshirt freshman.
Unlike the 2026 class, it might matter more which team is picking first overall than which quarterback is deserving of going first overall. Manning and Sayin fit different systems. At the current prices, though, it’s hard not to like the value Sayin brings.
Caleb Williams was the heavy favorite to be the No. 1 pick when odds opened for the 2024 NFL Draft. The last 2 classes have seen longshots overtake the opening favorite.
Arch Manning vs. The Field for the 2027 NFL Draft: We’re doing this again? Saturday Down South.
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