The study, published today in the journal Communications Earth & Environment, warns that the warming threatens the stability of Antarctic ice sheets. Antarctica is one of the fastest warming places on Earth, and as the ocean heats up due to global warming, the rate of ice loss is accelerating, contributing to rising sea levels. In 2022, global average sea level reached a new record high: 4 inches above 1993 levels. The findings are a stark warning that significant climate risks are unfolding in the depths of the Antarctic waters.
It’s the first time that scientists have observed the shift in deep-ocean heat throughout the Southern Ocean. Until now, scientists didn’t have enough data to detect the warming trend. “Observations in this region are really hard to get,” notes Joshua Lanham, the study’s lead author. The researchers relied on data from study sites known as transects, which record things like temperature and nutrients in the water, roughly once every decade. They supplemented this information with publicly available data captured by “Argo floats,” robotic floats that provide continuous data on the upper ocean. They then used machine learning to combine the Argo float data and the long-term changes to create monthly snapshots of the last four decades.
“The mechanism which generally destabilizes these ice shelves is melting from warm water below the surface, which can then debuttress the ice shelf, and cause sea level rise. So the implication of those poleward movement in warm water is quite significant from that perspective,” says Lanham. “The collective amount of fresh water in these inland glaciers could raise sea levels by about 58 meters [190 ft.].”
Global average sea level has risen eight to nine inches since 1880, and the rate is accelerating due to glacier and ice sheet melt—adding new volumes of water to our oceans. Sea level rise due to Antarctic ice melt increases the risk of coastal flooding and can contribute to more intense storms.
Another study published earlier this month found that the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), a system of global ocean currents, is closer to collapse than previously thought, with the system slowing down as air temperatures rise rapidly in the Arctic due to global warming. A collapse in this circulation would trigger a rise in Atlantic sea levels, shift the tropical rainfall belt that millions of people rely on to grow food, and expose parts of Europe to extreme cold winters and summer droughts.
“It is a very famous saying that what happens in the Southern Ocean doesn't stay in the Southern Ocean,” warns Mashayek. “The same thing is true about the Arctic. Both have huge global impacts that can be realized relatively quickly on human relevant timescales.”
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