Two teams that have never lifted the UEFA Champions League trophy will face off for a spot in this season’s final. We look ahead to Wednesday’s first leg with our Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal prediction and preview.
Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer has struggled to predict Wednesday’s first leg, with Atlético Madrid assigned a 35.1% chance of victory to Arsenal’s 37%. These are the two teams that have played the most European Cup or UEFA Champions League games without winning the competition, with Arsenal playing 223 and Atlético 190. Atlético have never lost a Champions League knockout-stage game against an English team at either the Vicente Calderón or the Estadio Metropolitano, with all six such matches coming against different clubs (P6 W3 D3), and none of them versus Arsenal.Arsenal may have wobbled in recent weeks, but as we prepare to enter the month of May, their hopes of a Premier League and UEFA Champions League double remain very much intact.
The Gunners looked physically spent at the culmination of Saturday’s 1-0 win over Newcastle United at the Emirates Stadium, but they cannot afford to show any signs of fatigue on Wednesday as they take on Atlético Madrid in the first leg of their Champions League semi-final tie.
Having fallen at this stage to the eventual winners Paris Saint-Germain last season, Mikel Arteta’s team will be desperate to go at least one step further.
And Atléti are no strangers to European heartache under Diego Simeone, either, having lost two finals – both to local rivals Real Madrid – and suffered one semi-final exit during the Argentine’s long reign.
In fact, these are the two teams that have played the most matches in the European Cup or Champions League without ever lifting the famous old trophy. Arsenal have played 223 games in Europe’s premier club competition, while Atléti are on 190.
The Gunners are only one game away from equalling their longest-ever run without a defeat in the European Cup/Champions League, having registered 10 wins and two draws in their last 12 matches.
They reached the final at the culmination of their only better run, which took in 13 matches between March 2005 and April 2006, and following their 1-0 aggregate success over Sporting CP in the last 16, another tight affair could be in store.
Arsenal’s four games in the knockout stages of the Champions League this season have produced just five goals (four for, one against), an average of 1.25 per game. Atléti, meanwhile, were held to just 0.32 open-play expected goals (xG) at the Emirates in the league stage, their lowest total in a Champions League game this season.
But Atléti’s run through the knockouts, which has taken them past Club Brugge, Tottenham and Barcelona, has contained 28 goals in six matches, at an average of 4.7 per game (17 for, 11 against).
Julián Álvarez’s performances have been huge for Simeone’s men, as his nine goals this season are already the most by any Atléti player in a European Cup/Champions League campaign.
The Argentine, who helped Manchester City pip Arsenal to a pair of Premier League titles in 2022-23 and 2023-24, also leads all players in the 2025-26 edition for total high-intensity pressures (853), as well as boasting the most per 90 minutes (70 – minimum 500 minutes played).
Álvarez could line up alongside Antoine Griezmann in attack, with the Frenchman desperate to lift silverware with Atléti before departing for Orlando City at the end of the season, having not done so since the 2018 UEFA Super Cup.
Griezmann has been directly involved in 24.2% of Atléti’s goals in the Champions League (56/231 – 40 goals, 16 assists); the highest percentage by any player for a team who have scored 100+ goals in the competition’s history, ahead of Lionel Messi for Barcelona (24.1%).
But of course, Atléti’s attackers will come up against a stern Arsenal defence, with the Gunners only conceding 11 goals (0.5 per game) and possessing a clean sheet rate of 59% (13) across the 22 Champions League games that have seen David Raya, William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães start together.
Arteta’s biggest dilemma concerns his underperforming attack, though he will hope Bukayo Saka’s timely return to the squad helps matters, after he appeared as a late substitute against Newcastle.
Arsenal have averaged 2.6 goals and 2.3 xG per game when Saka has played for them in the Champions League this season (eight matches), compared to just 1.5 goals and 1.8 xG per game when he has been absent (four matches).
Saka has produced more successful pull backs (three) in the competition this season than Gabriel Martinelli, Noni Madueke and Leandro Trossard combined (two), so his comeback should be a boost for Viktor Gyökeres, who has failed to score in four knockout-stage matches in this season’s tournament while only attempting six shots – 28 players have attempted more since the start of the round of 16.
Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
These two have already met once in this season’s competition, with Arsenal romping to a 4-0 home win in the league phase last October, which was Atléti’s joint-heaviest defeat in the tournament (have lost by four goals on five occasions in total).
Their only other European meetings came in the 2017-18 UEFA Europa League semi-finals, when Los Colchoneros won 2-1 on aggregate (1-1 away, 1-0 home).
This will be the 16th European Cup or Champions League semi-final tie between Spanish and English teams.
The sides from England have progressed from nine of the previous 15 (60%), as well as in four of the last five, the exception being Man City versus Real Madrid in 2021-22.
However, when playing at either the Vicente Calderon or the Estadio Metropolitano, Atlético have never lost to an English side in a Champions League knockout-stage match (P6 W3 D3).
All six of those games were against different teams (Chelsea, Leicester City, Liverpool, Manchester United, Man City and Tottenham).
Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction
The Opta supercomputer viewed this first-leg as extremely difficult to call.
The hosts were victorious in 35% of pre-match simulations, with Arsenal winning 37%, while the Gunners got back to the Emirates with a draw in 27.9% of simulations.
According to the supercomputer’s tournament predictions, Arsenal are favourites to win the tie, with a 72% chance of making the final compared to Atleti’s 28%.
The Gunners were also the tournament favourites ahead of this week’s semi-final first legs, lifting the trophy in 36% of scenarios, compared to 35% for Bayern Munich, 21% for PSG and 8% for Atléti.
Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Atlético Madrid: Jan Oblak, Marcos Llorente, Marc Pubill, Robin Le Normand, Matteo Ruggeri, Giuliano Simeone, Koke, Johnny Cardoso, Nico González, Julián Alvarez, Antoine Griezmann.
Head coach: Diego Simeone
Arsenal: David Raya, Ben White, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães, Piero Hincapié, Declan Rice, Martin Ødegaard, Martín Zubimendi, Bukayo Saka, Viktor Gyökeres, Gabriel Martinelli.
Head coach: Mikel Arteta
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday night in Spain, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction: UCL Nearly Men Battle for First-Leg Advantage Opta Analyst.
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