Sir Keir Starmer is expected to order Labour MPs to vote against a sleaze inquiry over the Peter Mandelson vetting fiasco in what some insiders believe is a fresh “indignity” for his embattled leadership.
The Commons will vote on Tuesday on whether to refer the Prime Minister to a probe to consider if he misled the House over the way Lord Mandelson’s appointment as ambassador to the US was handled.
The vote will add to the pressure on what was already another high stakes day for Starmer’s leadership with his former chief of staff Morgan McSweeney set to give evidence to Parliament on the Mandelson saga.
And in a sign that there is concern among senior Labour figures that this is a moment of significant danger for the PM, loyal ministers were reported to be ringing round potential rebels on Monday night to persuade them to vote against the motion.
And former prime minister Gordon Brown rowed in behind Starmer, urging Labour MPs to “put the needs of the country first”.
No 10 has not yet formally ordered Labour MPs to oppose Conservative demands for an investigation into Starmer by the Privileges Committee, which played a major role in Boris Johnson’s exit from frontline politics after it investigated whether he misled the Commons over Covid rule-breaking.
But Starmer described demands for a probe as a political “stunt” by the Tories a week ahead of local elections, and MPs widely expect to be asked to vote it down, in effect making it a confidence vote in the Prime Minister.
And as he prepared to try and win over his MPs at a meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) on Monday night, Starmer refused to deny he would whip against an inquiry, telling the Cathy Newman Show on Sky News: “We’ve got a meeting of the PLP later on tonight where that’s usually determined, on Monday evening.
“But it is a stunt.
“We’ve got huge amounts of transparency going on already.
“And, frankly, as Prime Minister and as a Government, it is really important I focus on what matters to millions of people across the country.”
However, a Labour insider said “people are feeling the PM should’ve referred himself [to the Privileges Committee] rather than suffer the indignity of us [MPs] voting it down”.
There is a belief that MPs will fall in line behind Starmer “because of local elections” falling next week, and the need to avoid deepening the scale of losses facing Labour.
One Labour backbencher said Starmer would be “fine” in Tuesday’s vote “unless some of my colleagues have taken something over the weekend”.
But they added that “parallels with the 2019 Conservative [Johnson] government are quite scary”.
In a statement reported by The Times, former prime minister Brown told MPs that Starmer deserves “our full support” and dismissed the vote as a “parliamentary game”.
Starmer ‘should set a date to stand down’
Labour MP Graham Stringer, who has already publicly called for the PM to quit, said he believed Starmer has misled Parliament over Mandelson but that the party would not effectively vote to bring him down on a Tory-led motion.
“I think he has broken the rules, but I would prefer it if he did the dignified thing and announced a decent timetable to go,” he told The i Paper.
“In the debate, I would find it difficult to vote for a Tory motion. If we’re to replace the leader of the Labour Party and the Prime Minister, I’m not convinced I would do it on a Tory motion.”
Stringer added: “I don’t think we can go on with a lame duck prime minister, so we need a serious replacement after a mature debate on the big policy issues.”
No 10’s defence
No 10 on Monday published a letter from former Cabinet Secretary Sir Chris Wormald which is expected to form a key part of Starmer’s defence against an inquiry.
The September 2025 letter from Wormald to the PM states that “appropriate processes were followed” in both the hiring and firing of Mandelson. This seemingly gives Starmer a defence against claims he misled Parliament when he said in the same month that “due process” was followed during the appointment.
Starmer is also facing accusations he misled the Commons when he said “no pressure existed whatsoever” in relation to Mandelson’s vetting.
Former Foreign Office (FCDO) head Sir Olly Robbins, who was sacked over the Mandelson vetting row, told MPs last week that he had faced “everyday pressure” to speed up the process but not what would amount to inappropriate to disregard security concerns and grant it anyway, which Starmer and allies are likely to highlight.
One Whitehall insider said they expected Robbins’ account to be backed up by his predecessor, Sir Philip Barton, in a follow up appearance before the Foreign Affairs Committee (FAC) on Tuesday.
“The entire Labour Party will be watching from between their fingers.”
Labour sources, however, warned that McSweeney’s appearance could prove more problematic, with one saying: “I literally cannot imagine how this goes down.”
“He either takes sole responsibility for all and enhances the idea that Keir is present but not involved in his own administration, or he doesn’t, and brings his close friend and boss down,” they said.
“The entire Labour Party will be watching from between their fingers.”
This was echoed by the Labour insider, who said they “expect McSweeney to come out to bat for the PM”.
“He’s going to have to parrot the Government position and hope for best,” the insider added.
“But there’s no “best” because the PM was absent or is lying”.
Speaking to The i Paper, Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has denied she was “playing political games” by forcing an effective confidence vote in Starmer.
“The Prime Minister has misled Parliament on multiple occasions,” Badenoch claimed.
“This is quite a serious thing, especially when it’s about national security.”
She added: “This isn’t a parliamentary gambit, and this isn’t about Boris Johnson.
“Although I am holding Keir Starmer to the same standards which he held other people, I don’t think that he should tell people that if you mislead parliament, you should resign, and then he repeatedly misleads parliament and then hides behind officials and staff and changes his story every minute or so.”
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