After wins for Tottenham, West Ham and Nottingham Forest this weekend, the relegation battle is hotting up. There’s a chance that 40 points won’t be enough to survive.
The language of football is filled with clichés that are used so freely that few ever feel the need to question them.
The assertion that “2-0 is the most dangerous lead in football”, for example. Suggesting a player has hit a shot “too well.” Or the idea that a goal just before half-time “is the worst time to concede.” None of them are actually true.
Another supposed – yet factually inaccurate – truism is the idea that 40 points are needed to survive in the Premier League. For anyone worried about relegation, the aim is reaching that magic 40-point mark to secure your top-flight status. Anything else is a bonus.
But looking back through Premier League history, the truth is it’s very rare indeed that as many as 40 points are needed to stay up.
There has only been one occasion in the previous 21 completed seasons when the team in the final relegation spot has got as many as 39 points (Birmingham in 2010-11), making that the only time in over two decades when 40 points were needed to stay up. In that time, the average points tally for the team finishing in 18th place has been 33.5.
In each of the last 14 seasons, a total of 38 points has been enough to survive, with each of the teams to finish in 18th place picking up at most 37 points – and even that tally was only reached once in that time (Newcastle in 2015-16).
In the first eight 38-game Premier League seasons, from 1995 to 2003, there were three occasions when 40 points were not enough to survive, the most recent of which was when West Ham went down with 42 points in 2002-03.
And even with those three higher tallies, across all 38-game Premier League campaigns, the average points won by the teams that finished in 18th is 34.5. Perhaps the 40-point mark isn’t so magical after all.
That average is skewed somewhat by extremely low points tallies from three of the last five teams to finish in 18th: Fulham (28) in 2020-21, Luton (26) in 2023-24, and Leicester (25) last season. In those seasons, 40 points has been more than enough to finish clear of trouble.
This season, however, anyone hoping to survive is already sure they’ll need far more points on the board. And given the form of the teams down there, there’s a decent chance that more than 40 will be needed. Some of the teams still in this edition of the relegation battle may consider themselves unfortunate not to already be safe.
West Ham, Nottingham Forest and Leeds have hit form just when it matters. Leeds are unbeaten in five; Forest in six, and West Ham have won six and lost only three of their last 13.
With four games to go, West Ham are currently in 17th place and on 36 points. They are only two points above 18th, and very much still in the relegation fight when, at this stage of last season, they had the exact same total, but were 15 points clear of the relegation zone.
Tottenham currently sit in the final relegation spot, above already-relegated Burnley and Wolves, having sunk down the table with a terrible run of form this year. However, fresh off winning a Premier League match for the first time in 2026 at the weekend with a 1-0 win at Wolves, Spurs are keeping the relegation battle alive.
Spurs finished last season in 17th on 38 points, 13 points clear of the relegation zone, but could quite feasibly go down with a higher total this time around. They are currently on 34 points with a maximum of 12 to play for this season.
Recent form would suggest they won’t get anything like 12 points, but having kept a first clean sheet since New Year’s Day, they finally have some hope to cling to. The Opta supercomputer makes them the favourites for the drop (59.0%), ending with 38.7 points on average in 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. However, there is a chance that Spurs win two of their remaining four games to make it to 40 points.
They face Leeds and Everton at home – both tough but winnable fixtures – and although Aston Villa and Chelsea are both difficult away assignments, Spurs have a small boost ahead of each fixture. They face Villa between the two legs of their Europa League semi-final against Forest, and Spurs’ trip to Stamford Bridge will be rearranged around Chelsea’s FA Cup final. Given Chelsea are all but out of the hunt for a top-five finish, that cup final will be their priority for the rest of the season.
West Ham have the toughest remaining fixtures according to the Opta Power Rankings, but they are on a very good run of form, and should still make it to the 40-point mark. They’d need a win and a draw from their final four games, and their recent results suggest they could easily manage that. The Opta supercomputer expects them to (40.2 projected points).
Forest are on 39 points, and will almost certainly get the one point they need to reach 40 given how impressive they have been of late (three wins from their last four), while Leeds have already made it to 40.
This means all four relegation-threatened sides could make it to the supposed safety of 40 points, which would by definition mean the ‘magical’ 40-point mark won’t be enough to survive for one of them.
Spurs are obviously in the worst position of the bunch, but they will hope they can build on the fact they have gone two league games without defeat for the first time since 1 February.
The problem for them is that everyone else is already in form. Looking at the Premier League form guide over each team’s last three games, all four of Spurs, West Ham, Forest and Leeds are in the top 10. Take Spurs out of the equation, and the other three are in the top six, each having taken seven points from their last three games.
The gap is probably too big to bridge, but there remains the slim possibility that Newcastle, who have been stuck on 42 points since 14 March, could get sucked into the scrap as well.
There is, of course, just as much – if not significantly more – chance that Spurs will lose all of their remaining games and continue the trend of the past two decades of the team in 18th getting nowhere near 40 points.
The exact number of points needed will come down to them and West Ham. If they both continue to pick up wins, then the others will be dragged back into trouble and the team in 18th place will end the season with more points than any other season in recent memory.
For the first time since the early 2000s, 40 points may not be enough to survive. Any talk of a “magic 40-point mark” might just need to stop.
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Will 40 Points Really Be Enough for Premier League Survival? Opta Analyst.
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