WASHINGTON DC – On Saturday, Donald Trump was supposed to find himself in an unfamiliar and possibly even uncomfortable position. For the first time as President, he had agreed to attend the White House correspondents’ dinner, where presidents and members of the media have traditionally exchanged barbs and (supposedly) light-hearted insults.
Instead, thanks to the actions of an armed man, he found himself on sadly familiar ground: talking to reporters at the White House about another apparent attempt on his life, and claiming that he is a persistent target of would-be killers because “the people who make the biggest impact are the people they go after”.
That claim probably does not stand up to historical scrutiny: Gerald Ford is not remembered as one of the country’s most significant presidents and yet he survived two attempted assassinations in 1975. The world has also largely forgotten that Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, was working in the White House in May 2023 when a young man with neo-Nazi sympathies rammed a truck into a security barrier, later telling investigators that he planned to depose the president.
Unlike Trump’s brush with death in Butler, Pennsylvania, in July 2024, the gunman on Saturday never got close to the ballroom where Trump was about to entertain more than 2,000 guests. This time, there were no bloodstained fist-pumps as the Secret Service rushed onto the dais and scurried the President away.
No shots were fired inside the ballroom itself, with the incident contained in the Washington Hilton’s ground floor above.
Still, some will hope that the impact could be just as critical for Trump and his flagging political support. The attack came at a moment when he is in urgent need of a political turnaround. On Tuesday, the latest Associated Press/NORC poll showed the President’s approval rating at just 33 per cent, its lowest level on record.
Trump is rushed offstage during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on 13 July 2024 after a gunman opened fire (Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty)The war with Iran, and the economic fallout, has divided his once-united base. Only one voter in three still approves of Trump’s handling of the economy, according to polls, which remains the most important issue on American minds ahead of November’s key midterm elections.
In 2024, the attempted assassination in Butler – which took place on the eve of the Republican Party’s nominating convention in Milwaukee – boosted Trump’s political fortunes and arguably helped him win the keys to the Oval Office 17 weeks later.
Days before the Butler shooting, polls showed 70 per cent of Trump supporters were enthusiastic about his candidacy. Ten days after, that number had leaped to 85 per cent. Across the US, a third of voters, regardless of their political persuasion, told pollsters that Trump’s life was saved by “divine providence”.
Could the latest attack lead to a similar uptick in support, or at least enough to blunt the momentum that some believe will lead to the Democrats retaking the House and potentially the Senate?
Polls showing any change in political support will only be available in the coming weeks, but this time around it is far from evident that Trump will enjoy a bump in support that could help him navigate his way out of the dire political straits he finds himself in.
While Todd Blanche, the acting Attorney General, said that this latest gunman was “likely” targeting the President, he never came close to actually hurting Trump, at least not when compared with the attempt in Pennsylvania.
Watch footage from inside the ballroom – where some guests had the presence of mind to grab champagne and wine bottles from their tables before exiting the building – and it’s clear that the initial moment of panic and emergency dissipated quickly. This time around, there was no iconic photo moment that would be etched into people’s minds.
A woman is rushed to safety after the incident during the White House correspondents’ dinner (Photo: Tom Brenner/AP)In fact, in the minds of Maga supporters, the White House correspondents’ dinner is itself heavily linked with the “Washington swamp” that Trump came to power vowing to destroy. Instead, swamp life is thriving, with the dinner putting the cozy relationships between the powerful and those who cover them on display.
Working-class voters, struggling to pay $4 a gallon at the petrol pump, are unlikely to feel too much sympathy for a President who was seemingly never in real danger, was busy tucking into a salad course with people he professes to despise, and continues to wage a war on Iran that is forcing prices higher with no end in sight.
A noticeable Trump bump is therefore unlikely.
There is, though, at least one tangible benefit he is likely to derive from a security operation that appears, on Saturday, to have allowed a gunman to get so close to those who pull the levels of power in the White House. To a person, administration officials are now echoing Trump’s argument that the attack on the Hilton proves the need for his White House ballroom to be completed as soon as possible.
The alleged gunman’s lingering effect on Washington may not be apparent in the ballot box, but they may be seen by future generations on its skyline.
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