We look ahead to Saturday’s FA Cup semi-final at Wembley Stadium with our Man City vs Southampton prediction and preview. Can Saints pull off another stunning surprise?
Man City vs Southampton: The Key Stats
Manchester City are strong favourites to book their place in the FA Cup showpiece, winning inside 90 minutes in 75.2% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations. City have reached the FA Cup final in each of the last three seasons – no team has ever reached four in a row. Southampton have lost eight of their last 11 matches at Wembley (W3), including their last two FA Cup semi-finals.Manchester City and Southampton are both just one game away from having the chance to play for the FA Cup trophy, with Saturday posing an intriguing match-up.
City can still clinch a domestic treble. After lifting the EFL Cup in March, they boosted their Premier League title hopes in the last week, with back-to-back wins over Arsenal and Burnley sending them to the summit, and they go to Wembley in strong form.
But Southampton are one of the in-form teams in the Championship. They stretched their league unbeaten streak to 17 games after coming from behind twice to draw 2-2 with Bristol City on Tuesday, and they haven’t lost any of their last 20 in all competitions (W16 D4).
One of the wins during that run was a good old-fashioned giant-killing in the FA Cup quarter-finals. They stunned Premier League leaders Arsenal 2-1 thanks to a late Shea Charles winner.
City, meanwhile, brushed aside Liverpool 4-0 in the last round, with Erling Haaland’s hat-trick paving the way for a big win at the Etihad.
The Norwegian will surely be a key figure once again. He’s scored 12 goals in 12 FA Cup appearances for City, and 11 of those were part of hat-tricks (3 vs Burnley in 2023, 5 vs Luton Town in 2024, 3 vs Liverpool in 2026).
However, Haaland has never scored or assisted in a single semi-final or final in any competition for City – he’s played 14 such games, 1,140 minutes, had 25 shots and 62 touches in the opposition box.
Either way, City are a force to be reckoned with in the latter stages of the FA Cup. They are playing in their eighth straight semi-final in the competition, a run that stretches back to 2018-19.
They have won each of their last three, though they only lifted the trophy in 2022-23, losing the subsequent two finals to Manchester United and Crystal Palace, respectively.
No team in the competition’s history has ever reached four consecutive finals, but since 2016-17, City have won the most matches (44), scored the most goals (157) and kept the most clean sheets of any side (28).
And they have won their last 21 FA Cup matches against sides below the Premier League, scoring 84 goals in that run while conceding only 11.
However, though this competition appears to be a particular favourite of Pep Guardiola’s, he doesn’t have much luck at Wembley. Six of City’s seven FA Cup defeats under him have come at the stadium – the other was at the DW Stadium.
And Southampton will certainly take hope from that stat as they look to cause another major upset.
They are looking to become the first non-Premier League team to reach the FA Cup final since Cardiff City in 2007-08, who beat fellow Championship side Barnsley in the last four.
Sunderland, back in 1991-92, were the last lower division side to beat a top-flight opponent in an FA Cup semi-final, overcoming Norwich City.
Saints don’t have the best form when visiting Wembley, losing eight of their 11 matches at the national stadium (W3). That includes both of their FA Cup semi-finals played there in 2017-18 (to Chelsea) and 2020-21 (to Leicester City), but they did win their last trip – the 2024 Championship play-off final against Leeds United.
Southampton will be keen to cap their season with a fifth FA Cup trophy, alongside a potential promotion back to the top flight. However, they have been knocked out in nine of their 13 final-four appearances.
And in some more good news for City, eight of the nine teams to knock the Saints out in the semi-finals then went on to lift the trophy, with the only exception being Arsenal in 1926-27.
Man City vs Southampton Head-to-Head
Man City have faced Southampton in four previous FA Cup ties, winning 5-0 in 1909-10, 3-1 in 2006-07 and 4-1 in 2021-22.
However, they lost the other 5-1 in the third round in 1959-60.
Southampton have lost 13 of their last 18 matches against City in all competitions (W2 D3), though. Their most recent meeting was a goalless draw in the Premier League in May 2025.
Man City vs Southampton Prediction
Given their strong recent run against Southampton, Man City are heavy favourites to progress to the final, winning 75.2% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations inside 90 minutes.
Southampton’s win likelihood at Wembley sits at just 10.5%, with a further 14.3% chance of taking the tie to extra-time, but they won’t mind the odds not being in their favour again.
Man City vs Southampton Predicted Lineups
Manchester City: James Trafford, Matheus Nunes, Abdukodir Khusanov, Marc Guéhi, Nico O’Reilly, Rodri, Bernardo Silva, Rayan Cherki, Antoine Semenyo, Jérémy Doku, Erling Haaland.
Head Coach: Pep Guardiola
Southampton: Daniel Peretz, James Bree, Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Nathan Wood, Ryan Manning, Caspar Jander, Shea Charles, Tom Fellows, Finn Azaz, Léo Scienza, Ross Stewart.
Head Coach: Tonda Eckert
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Man City vs Southampton Prediction: Will Saints Pull Off Another FA Cup Upset? Opta Analyst.
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