Mikel Arteta’s side will be desperate to win on Saturday as the pressure ramps up in the title race. We look ahead to this Premier League clash with our Arsenal vs Newcastle United prediction and preview.
Arsenal vs Newcastle United: The Key Stats
Arsenal won a convincing 68.4% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer. The Gunners have lost four of their last six games across all competitions, more than in their previous 52 matches combined. Newcastle have suffered defeat in eight of their last 11 Premier League matches (W3), with no side losing more since the start of this run in late January.How will Arsenal handle the pressure? Mikel Arteta’s side host Newcastle United on Saturday evening, having been overtaken in the Premier League title race by Manchester City.
Pep Guardiola’s side had not topped the league table since August, but a decisive April from them has Arsenal now chasing.
Arsenal’s 2-1 defeat at home to Bournemouth preceded another loss by the same scoreline at title rivals City last weekend, before Guardiola’s team edged past Burnley on Wednesday to move top on goals scored.
Erling Haaland’s second-half finish proved decisive in Man City’s 2-1 victory over Arsenal, and perhaps their respective bids for the title. Kai Havertz had earlier pounced on a Gianluigi Donnarumma mistake to equalise immediately after Rayan Cherki’s highlight-reel opener.
‘Panic on the streets of London’ was the banner unfurled as the full-time whistle sounded at the Etihad Stadium, but the Opta supercomputer still gives Arsenal a 65.5% chance of winning the title.
Arteta has to banish bad memories of April, however. Under the Spaniard, Arsenal’s lowest points-per-game ratio in a Premier League month (5+ games played) is this one, winning 40 points in 27 games (1.48).
In fact, 18% of all the Gunners’ league defeats under Arteta have come in April (9 out of 51), and it’s fair to say they have hit a block in form at a decisive moment. Arsenal have lost four of their last six games across all competitions (W1 D1), more than in their previous 52 matches combined (W39 D10 L3).
After back-to-back league defeats against Bournemouth and Man City by the same scoreline, Arsenal could lose three top-flight matches in a row for the first time since April 2022. They went 1-0 down in three games consecutively on that occasion.
A stumbling period has not been helped by the absence of Bukayo Saka, who is not expected back on Saturday. Arsenal have a 73% win ratio (16 wins in 22 games) and average 2.36 points per game with Saka in the starting XI in this season’s Premier League, but without him, their win percentage drops to 45% (5 wins in 11) and points per game to 1.64.
But Newcastle have not won since mid-March, when they beat Chelsea 1-0 away, and have lost their last three league outings 2-1 against Sunderland (H), Crystal Palace (A) and Bournemouth (H).
And Arsenal will be aware they can heap further pressure on Eddie Howe. His side have lost eight of their last 11 matches in the Premier League (W3), with no team losing more than Newcastle since the start of that run on 25 January.
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Osula, who has got the nod ahead of Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa in recent weeks, is the only player to score in as many as five games in the competition for Newcastle and end on the losing side in more than half of them.
In terms of Arsenal’s team news, Riccardo Calafiori and Jurriën Timber are expected to remain out with Saka. Martin Ødegaard returned against Man City, while Mikel Merino is said to be progressing well in his recovery from ankle surgery.
Howe will hope to welcome back Anthony Gordon at the Emirates, though Tino Livramento and Fabian Schär will be absent for struggling Newcastle through injury, while Joelinton will serve the second of his two-match suspension.
Arsenal vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head
Arsenal left it late for a 2-1 victory in the reverse meeting back in late September. Merino’s 84th-minute equaliser paved the way for Gabriel Magalhães to score the winner in the sixth minute of stoppage time at St. James’ Park.
That win earlier in the season gives Arsenal the chance to complete the league double over Newcastle for the first time since 2020-21, and Arteta will fancy his chances considering the Magpies’ record at the Emirates.
Newcastle are winless in their last 13 Premier League away games against Arsenal (D1 L12), and have managed just one goal across their last nine visits.
Arsenal also need just one more goal to make it a century of Premier League strikes against Newcastle. They have netted 100 against Everton, West Ham, Tottenham and Aston Villa, and could be the third team to reach triple figures against five different opponents in the competition, after Manchester United (6) and Liverpool (5).
Arsenal vs Newcastle United Prediction
The Opta supercomputer leant heavily towards a home win as Arsenal won 68.4% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Newcastle hold just a 14% chance of an unlikely away victory in the same data-backed sims, while the draw came in at 17.5%.
Arsenal vs Newcastle United Predicted Lineups
Arsenal: David Raya, Ben White, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães, Piero Hincapié, Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Martin Ødegaard, Noni Madueke, Gabriel Martinelli, Viktor Gyökeres.
Head Coach: Mikel Arteta
Newcastle United: Nick Pope, Kieran Trippier, Malick Thiaw, Dan Burn, Lewis Hall, Sandro Tonali, Bruno Guimarães, Jacob Ramsey, Anthony Elanga, Harvey Barnes, Nick Woltemade.
Head Coach: Eddie Howe
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Arsenal vs Newcastle United Prediction: Can Gunners Reclaim Premier League Top Spot? Opta Analyst.
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