The ballot initiative, which passed by about two percentage points, formally allows the Virginia General Assembly to redraw the state’s 11 congressional districts, supplanting the bipartisan Virginia Restricting Commission. Redistricting by the legislature is triggered by another state changing its congressional districts outside of the traditional every-10-years process without a judicial order. The measure is temporary, with redistricting power going back to the commission in 2031.
The legislature has already created and adopted the new district maps. They go into effect with the passage of this amendment. But the Virginia Supreme Court could still decide that the process by which the amendment was passed or the gerrymandering itself violates the state’s constitution. Republicans have filed numerous suits to stop the redistricting, and those have not been fully resolved. They are expected to fail.
That narrow majority is why Trump was pushing his party so hard to gerrymander in the states the GOP controls. But if this Virginia redistricting stands, Democrats will have matched the Republicans. Ballotpedia estimates that redistricting in Texas, Missouri, Ohio, and North Carolina positions the Republicans to win nine additional seats. But redistricting in California, a judicial ruling favorable to Democrats in Utah, and this Virginia vote combined creates 10 potential seats for Democrats. That balance may not last for long though, as Florida Republicans are considering changing their districts too.
Even if we can’t yet say that the Democrats will win the redistricting battle, it’s great that they are fully engaged in it. Republicans gerrymandered many states legislatures in the 2010s while the Democrats largely sat idly by or filed unsuccessful lawsuits. Now, the party is fully invested in using its power in blue states to fight back. State legislators, governors, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Barack Obama, and rank and file Democratic voters have all played a critical role in these redistricting efforts in California and Virginia. Progressives have of course been on board, but so have moderates, such as Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger.
“I think what the Republicans expected from Democrats was that we would write op-eds. I’d go on television (and) do interviews with you and say, “Oh, this is terrible. What we said is, ‘No, we’re going to be tough,” former Attorney General Eric Holder said in a recent interview with the Virginia Mercury. Holder is a leading figure in Democrats’ redistricting push.
Ultimately, the United States needs independent commissions drawing districts in all 50 states and reforms like proportional representation that foster more parties. But any such changes will almost certainly require the Democratic Party to be fully in control of the House, the Senate, and the presidency, because it’s America’s only remaining democratic party. For now, aggressive partisanship will be required of Democrats to return America to a country where serving the military, teaching at a university, working in public health, and numerous other pursuits are again nonpartisan, instead of determined by one’s allegiance to Trump and the GOP. Democrats in California and Virginia have done the messy and mean but necessary work. They should be applauded, and all anti-Trump Americans should follow their example.
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