Well, I Like This “Optimistic Timeline” for Injured Cubs Closer Daniel Palencia ...Middle East

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Before tonight’s Game 2 matchup against the Phillies at Wrigley Field, the Chicago media assembled and spoke to Cubs manager Craig Counsell, who had a lot of injury updates to share.

Among the lesser highlights …

(1) Matthew Boyd will, indeed, be activated off the Injured List tomorrow to start against the Phillies. That’s good news, of course, but we already knew that was coming, so it’s just final confirmation more than anything else.

(2) Phil Maton is “determining next steps” after throwing live BP. That’s … frustratingly opaque news that you can read in either direction, depending on if you’re an “Old Style half-full or half-empty” type of person.

(3) Hunter Harvey will restart his throwing program on Friday. Which is, again, technically good news, but it’s a little unclear what sort of timeline he’s looking at. My personal plan is to just not expect a lot of Harvey this year and be pleasantly surprised when he is on the field (because when he IS healthy, he’s quite good).

And (4) Porter Hodge underwent his elbow surgery (UCL reconstruction), and his was more like Justin Steele (internal brace, 12-14 months) than Cade Horton (15-16 months). That’s the good kind of bad news.

Okay, enough of the appetizers, here’s the main dish: According to Cubs manager Craig Counsell, Cubs closer Daniel Palencia underwent an MRI, which revealed a lat strain. HOWEVER, Palencia is reportedly “responding very well right now,” and “there’s a chance that we’re throwing here before we go to the West Coast” on Friday.

Accordingly, that leaves “an optimistic timeline” that would have Daniel Palencia activated in two weeks!

I’ll take it.

Not unlike Cade Horton, Palencia is the most important pitcher in his group. He’s not only the Cubs closer, but he’s pretty much the only guy with that kind of stuff … you know, the stuff of a modern-day, 2026 reliever. And after a breakout 2025 season, he continued on with that success in the early-going here in 2026: 5.0 scoreless innings with 5Ks, two walks, and just three hits. He’s also generated a ton of weak contact and generally looked the part of a closer. So, yeah, I’ll happily take an update that has him “responding well,” “throwing within the next few days,” and “potentially activated in two weeks.”

None of this is ideal, but in terms of updates – particularly after seeing news of strain-revealing MRI – that feels like a win.

Palencia’s last inning thrown this season was on April 12. So if he’s activated in two weeks (from today), that’d have him back around May 6, which is in the middle of what looks like it could be an important four-game Cubs-Reds series at Wrigley Field. That’d ultimately be an absence of 21 games, maybe … half of which he would have thrown in? Again, not great, but far from a disaster in the grand scheme of things.

Now we just have to hope that he does, in fact, throw sometime before this weekend, feels good, and starts the process of ramping back up. After that, when he does return, it’s not difficult to imagine him heading right back into the closer’s role, if not for any other reason than there’s just not a lot of obvious back-end relief talent on this roster (at least not healthy) at the moment.

As a final note, there were no updates on Justin Steele that I saw, though he’s not even eligible to return until May 24. If that is going to be the target return date, you’d like to see some news of a rehab assignment starting up sometime in the next, oh, two weeks or so.

Once Steele returns, and if the rest of the Cubs rotation remains healthy, you could see the bullpen benefit by way of Colin Rea and/or Javier Assad joining that group. I tend to think they’ll want to keep Assad stretched out, however, so we’ll just have to see what happens. Sadly, these overcrowding issues tend to … not be an issue whenever the date gets closer. Someone is always hurt, and right now, that’s especially true for the Chicago Cubs.

Chicago Cubs Injury List:

Matthew Boyd, SP (returning tomorrow) Hunter Harvey, RP Phil Maton, RP Daniel Palencia, RP Ethan Roberts, RP Jordan Wicks, SP Porter Hodge, RP (out for a year+) Tyler Austin, IF/OF (60-Day IL) Cade Horton, SP (60-Day IL) Shelby Miller, RP (60-Day IL) Justin Steele, SP (60-Day IL)

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