Need proof the political map is turning against Republicans? Just spy the $79 million that the Senate GOP’s super PAC set aside this month for Ohio, a state President Donald Trump carried all three times and where Democrats last won a statewide election in 2018. Or the fact that that eye-popping sum wasn’t enough to keep D.C.’s gospel of political handicapping from shifting the race’s status from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up.” Or the fact that the Republican incumbent in that seat just keeps giving the digital Democratic trolls fodder to make his campaign more difficult.
But then Democrats persuaded Sherrod Brown back onto the field. Brown, a progressive who can credibly slide into Trump’s populist register, was the runner-up to become Hillary Clinton’s running mate in 2016 and he eyed his own race for the top billing in 2020 before deciding against it. A union hall hero and disheveled everyman, Brown had been the rare Ohio Democrat who would win statewide—at least until an unexpected defeat in 2024 that was driven by the national mood more than anything. (Despite it being the most expensive Senate race that year, Brown still ran eight points ahead of Kamala Harris’ White House campaign.)
Nonetheless, Republicans are now panicking about Ohio. The clearest sign came earlier this month when the Senate Leadership Fund, the outside political operation with close ties to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, released its spending plan. Of a massive $342 million the group plans to spend to keep Thune in that role in 2027, the biggest amount—$79 million—is going to Ohio.
Democrats, meanwhile, crowed about the fact their GOP rivals spotted the trouble. “This announcement is a sign Republicans are nervous, plain and simple. Their battleground map has increased substantially, and we're seeing the tell-tale signs of weakness with bad candidates, uninspiring messaging, and an approval rating in the pits,” Senate Democrats’ super PAC spokesperson Lauren French said. She did not address how much cash the Senate Majority PAC was ready to invest in the race.
Republicans’ main task at this point is to play defense, and no race illustrates that better than Husted, who got that job a little more than a year ago, taking over for Vance.
Husted’s may be a veteran of the campaign trail, but he’s making the mistakes of a rookie, serving a string of comments ready-made for attack ads, like saying the solution to high prices is to “earn more” and claiming Ohioans’ “work ethic is broken” and that they are “not very experienced at navigating the real world.”
Democrats have also been hammering Husted for taking more than $115,000 in campaign cash from an associate of disgraced financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrety Epstein. Husted says he is donating the money he received from Les Wexner out of politics.
Most polls indicate a slight advantage for Husted but Brown is crushing the fundraising race. He raised $10.1 million in the first three months of the year; Husten raised $2.9 million. Brown has $16.5 million banked while Husted has $8.2 million.
That’s why strategists in both parties are keeping close watch of Ohio: it has proven a tough prize for Democrats for years but the national mood is one that has Republicans rightly skittish. The fact that a thrice-Trump state is even on the map in 2026 speaks volumes.
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