It sounds like something from a science fiction film: the defeat of soldiers in battle by a bunch of robots. Yet according to Ukraine’s President, this landmark military event took place on the long and gory front line that scars his tormented country when drones and unmanned vehicles, acting alone, seized a position held by the invading Russian forces. Footage suggests the machines even captured human beings. “The occupiers surrendered and the operation was carried out without infantry and without losses on our side,” said Volodymyr Zelensky last week.
This is a remarkable moment in the fast-changing history of warfare. It shows how machines are replacing humans on that bloodstained battlefield. Ukraine’s robots are said to be responsible for 96 percent of Russian deaths – more than 34,000 fatalities a month – on the front line. Kyiv is increasing reliance on them to improve strike precision and minimise losses, radically reshaping assault tactics, as shown by its recapture of land in the south. Ground robotic systems carried out 22,000 missions in three months while airborne drones repeatedly target Moscow’s oil infrastructure. Artificial intelligence, fed on classified data from the combat zone, plays an increasingly significant role in both defensive and offensive operations.
The failure of the United States to crush Iran also shows the extraordinary evolution of warfare as Tehran resists the world’s strongest military with drones and the threat of its “mosquito fleet” of small boats. Yet, Zelensky’s disclosure reminds us the most critical fight between democracy and dictatorship takes place on our continent – and the challenge to our way of life from Russia and its autocratic allies such as China is clear. Despite getting bogged down in Ukraine, the Kremlin carries out deniable grey zone attacks from arson to cyber assaults across Europe while covertly testing defences, such as the recent incident with three submarines “loitering” for a month over critical undersea cables in the Atlantic.
Ministers talk bullishly. “Our Armed Forces left them in no doubt that they were being monitored,” boasted Defence Secretary John Healey. Meanwhile, our leaders strut around the planet pretending we remain a great global power. Yet, the recent farce over finding a warship to go to Cyprus after a military base was struck by an Iranian drone – resulting in French assistance – symbolised the shockingly decrepit state of our Armed Forces. Last week, all three authors of the Government’s pivotal Strategic Defence Review condemned Downing Street for “corrosive complacency”, in the brutally damning words of former Nato chief and Labour minister Lord Robertson.
The Government’s lack of urgency given a £28bn defence black hole is baffling as the likes of Germany and Poland ramp up their spending. The world is increasingly dangerous, the most powerful man in the world seems deranged, our core Nato alliance is under threat and Britain has cut itself adrift from Europe with Brexit. Yet, Westminster must not only face up to the risks in this turbulent new world, urgently find billions for defence and place the country on something close to war footing, but also tackle procurement failures that plagued past spending amid this rapid transformation of warfare.
Take our two aircraft carriers, pride of the Navy, that cost £6.2bn – nearly twice the initial estimate. They delight gold-braided admirals and grandstanding politicians, but what is their role in today’s theatre of war? One Army chief has labelled them “vulnerable tin cans”. Former government aide Dominic Cummings complained that “a teenager will be able to deploy a drone from their smartphone to sink one”. He is right. In Ukraine, maritime drones – £200,000 boats loaded with explosives – defeated Russia’s mighty Black Sea Fleet, forcing it to retreat, and have shot down fighter jets. “These things completely change the philosophy of defence,” the head of their maritime special forces unit told me. “They are changing the nature of warfare.”
What about on land with tanks? When Margaret Thatcher famously posed in one to reinforce her Iron Lady image in 1986, Britain had about 1,000 main battle tanks. Today, we have perhaps 200, although not all are serviceable. The Government is spending £800m upgrading Challengers to operate as part of a digitally integrated force, supposedly alongside new Ajax armoured vehicles. But the £6.3m Ajax project has turned into another procurement horror story. Instead of delivering fast and powerful weapons, there have been delays, cost overruns and reports about their inability to fire guns in motion and soldiers left with bad hearing problems.
To put this in perspective, Moscow has lost at least 4,000 tanks in Ukraine. In the modern battlefield dominated by drones, electronic warfare becomes increasingly critical and complex, yet even when these lumbering vehicles resemble hedgehogs bristling with protective antennae and systems, artificial intelligence means they can be destroyed by a couple of cheap drones. Note how Moscow’s nervous neighbour Estonia just suspended an order with BAE Systems for infantry fighting vehicles in favour of drones and air defence systems.
History has many examples of mistakenly focusing on the last war or believing that the lessons of one battlefield will apply inevitably to another. Yet Ukraine, fighting for survival, shows military procurement systems – notoriously bureaucratic, ponderous and profligate – can innovate. One state body has fostered hundreds of innovations with cash, competitions and hackathons in response to urgent frontline demands. An official there told me the lifespan of some military systems is now just weeks, not the decades of traditional weaponry.
Our leaders are trying to adapt, tentatively trying to mimic this disruptive approach while working closer with European allies. And Britain is sending 120,000 drones to Ukraine this year, working with Kyiv to learn lessons from the fighting – although this pales beside 10 deals worth $4.6bn just announced by Germany. Yet, they need to act faster, spend more and urgently solve our chronic procurement problems by resisting lobbying from defence firms, curbing jostling among service chiefs and fixing the civil service. Failure to win these political battles would be far more damaging to national interests than surviving the daft mess over Peter Mandelson.
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