It’s hard to overstate the seriousness of this finding. “This is an important and very concerning result,” Stefan Rahmstorf, of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, told The Guardian. “It shows that the ‘pessimistic’ models, which show a strong weakening of the Amoc by 2100, are, unfortunately, the realistic ones.”
There is still debate within the scientific community as to the extent and speed of the Amoc slowdown and what exactly it will mean, but the historical evidence is sobering. When Amoc inexplicably weakened by 30 percent in 2009 and 2010, the Northeast U.S. saw seas rise at unprecedented rates. A study released last year showed that 50 percent of the doubling of flood risk there since 2005 can be attributed to Amoc’s slowdown to date. The last time the current collapsed—beginning about 12,800 years ago—Europe may have experienced Arctic-like conditions as average temperatures dropped by nearly 60 degrees Celsius within a matter of decades.
It is easier, psychologically, to imagine that all those people who were yelling about climate change a few years ago were shrill blue-haired radicals, loony NGOs, and politicians who were so eager to capture those groups’ votes and endorsements that they foolishly took up catastrophically unpopular positions on the issue. It is also easier to debate the right way to talk about the climate crisis politically than it is to reckon with the actual problem at hand. Arguably a major reason why climate change has dropped out of the national conversation is because it is such an incredibly upsetting thing to think about.
To adequately plan for an inevitably climate-changed future—for mitigation, adaptation, and loss—the world’s governments would need to unite behind a war-like mobilization that would make even the most audacious of Soviet planners blush. In a war, however, at least by conventional metrics, one side can usually be said to have won once it’s over. Victory in a war on climate change, by contrast, would involve something like permanent battle, where the primary goal is to limit the numbers of losers to (optimistically) tens of millions rather than billions. The result would be a world that looks fundamentally different from our own. Given the quantity of greenhouse gasses that have already been deposited into the atmosphere, an enormous transformation in the ways people live now will happen—is happening—either way. The question isn’t whether we can preserve the world as it is and stop climate change, but whether we can plan for those changes to be as minimally destructive as possible.
This isn’t exactly a winning message. Neither, for that matter, will talking about the Amoc collapse win over swing voters in the United States. But the alternatives to engaging with reality are to lie about what’s happening or pretend that it isn’t happening. Those of us who aren’t running for office, at least, don’t have to be deniers.
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